Hurricane Hitting South Carolina????

[Sam]

Dave Tolis of WXRisk, a private meteorologist company that is retained by agriculture and other private companies informed us on Facebook to be aware of a tropical depression coming off Africa's coast which could head for South Carolina the weekend of August 27th.

Dave's predictions are more right than wrong and he has hit many storms on the head way before local newscasters alert us.

The morning of Thursday, August 18, the local Richmond, Virginia NBC weatherman informed us that he will be watching this wave as he says it could develop into a hurricane and hit the southeast USA.

I suggest visiting Dave's web site as he is going to start following the depression until it either misses us or hits our coast.

http://www.wxrisk.com/

I wanted everyone who is planning a fishing trip or a vacation to be aware of the possibility of a storm so you can plan accordingly.

[Sam]

We may get lucky and the storm will not make it to the states.

Let's hope so.

[Sam]

Looks like it has changed direction and is headed for Mississippi.

[Sam]

Its moving again.

Now looking like Florida on the 28th.

[Sam]

Friday, August 19 From RxRisk:

"12Z GFS MODEL UPDATE on 97L and POSSIBLE Hurricane threat for USA ** around AUG 28. 97L looks more and more LIKELY to pass SOUTH of Puerto Rico then into W Carib-- between Jamica & w Cuba. DEEP trough over Midwest & SE will PULL possible Hurricane North into E Gulf-- Landfall FL Panhandle."

Super! May it travel up the coast and drop 8 to 12 inches of rain on Virginia so we can fill up the lakes and ponds.

[Sam]

From WxRisk.com"

1800 EDT AUG 20

97L was upgraded this afternoon 51700 EDT to tropical storm IRENE. Looking at the 5PM IR satellite it is easy to see why. over the past 24 HRS there was this hole or donut in the center of this large tropical wave with each semicircle having large area has of heavy thunderstorms. But late this afternoon the center began to fill in and when the convection reached the low level circulation center the system of upgraded– obviously finding the fly level wins a 53 knots was a real kick in the head.

The 12z European model again remains firmly committed to the idea that IRENE is going to track over hispanola then over Eastern Cuba and turn sharply to the north move into the Florida Straits and making landfall over southwest Florida and cutting across the peninsula AUG 27… with a 2nd US landfall over southwest SC near the Georgia border. However by that time the trough over the Midwest will have moved off the northeast coast which means that the gap in the pattern over the southeastern CONUS gets “filled”. So the European model now takes this system and stalls over the southeast CONUS providing that area with several days of extremely heavy rain.

Looks like we may not be fishing next weekend.

Everyone watch the progress of Irene and make plans.

I will be going out to get ice and canned food and move the boat and vehicles into the field away from the trees.

[South FLA]

I will gladly welcome a Cat 1 or Tropical Depression over South FLA, we need the rains to dump over the Lake Okeechobee Basin to raise it up to at least 12.5 feet. According to the max wind speed probability table the chance of it becoming something greater than a Tropical Depression or a Cat 1 storm are slim (less than 4%). So bring it!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/085713.shtml?table#contents

[SirSnookalot]

I'd like to see some heavy rain ( keep those snook producing spillways open ) but don't want to see even a cat 1 hurricane, too hot to be losing my power and a/c. The surf fishing should be better than average with this storm coming later in the week, the big girls are starting to show up now along with some other great catching species.

[Sam]

Sunday, August 21st:

** ALERT IRENE UPDATE *** 12z EURO shows Direct hit Charleston SC.... at 144 hrs 12z Sunday 946 MB!!! borderline cat 4 cane. 168 hr -- day 7 AUG 28 Irene is RIGHT over Richmond... WOW

[BASSclary]

How will this Cane affect the the ole' greenbacks in VA sam?

[Sam]

Great fishing right before the storm arrives.

High waters will be fast and dirty in feeder creeks and rivers and turn off the fishing. Lakes and rivers will be heavily stained and the rivers will flow fast with the water.

East winds turn off the bass so the Chick River and other tidal waters will be shut down. The winds will also destroy the tides on our tidal rivers by not allowing the waters to flow normally.

Fresh water will drive the brackish water out of the tidal rivers and bring lots of oxygenated waters to our lakes.

Wait it out and by Thursday or Friday hit the waters. You may want to try fishing on Wednesday as I will be doing at a private pond in Maryland.

Be careful of fallen trees and animals hunting for food or displaced as you walk to and fish your local ponds.

The good news is 1) the Dismal Swamp fire will hopefully be defeated; 2) our lakes and ponds need the fresh water and they will go to full pool; 3) Swift Creek and Lake Chesdin will have lots of water so no watering restrictions in the greater Richmond area.

The bass will want to feed after the storm passes and will be hunting for baitfish and crawfish.

Let us know where you fish, what you threw and how you did.

Be careful. We need for you to grow up and pay lots of F.I.C.A.

[Sam]

This business weather alert is being sent because of the INCREASING risk that Tropical Storm IRENE will make hurricane status and NOT directly hit Florida but instead make landfall in SC and have a SIGNIFICANT impact for NC VA ME DE weather AUG 28-29.

Irene at 1am looks like a Hurricane on the San Juan Puero Rico Radar and the latest recon found flight level winds to 88 MPH. So she will likely be upgraded by morning. The Model data shifted all day Sunday. Irene's track may stay just east of Fl... then make landfall close to Charleston SC. This is NOT going to be anything like ISABEL in 2003. Instead a much better analog would be Hurricane Floyd in 1999. Of course for southeast Virginia that brought disasterous flooding and that sort of 10" rainfall is very posisble for some portions of NC and VA.

[South FLA]

Irene looks like it may be MASSIVE before it hits, so come on down to the Sunshine State

[Sam]

Wxrisk.com

‎*** ALERT *** ALERT *** for the 3rd run ina row the European weather Model shows a direct hit by IRENE at Wlimington NC on Saturday AUG 27. The Euroeopan - the best weather model in the world - AGAIN shows Irene will be the strongest Hurricane to EVER hit NC. EVER.

It forecasts IRENE to be a Catgiory 4 borderline 5 Hurricane. And again for the 3rd run in a row it takes IRENE due North... along I-95 with the core tracking Right over RICHMOND VA.

NOTE: We will know for sure by Thursday where Irene is headed. Stay tuned!!!

[BASSclary]

Hmmmm. How should I say this... BAWLZ.

[Sam]

Bassclary, the computer models from the National Weather Service, etc. are showing the high pressure system over the midwest as driving the hurricane off shore from Virgnina Beach.

Dave at www.wxrisk.com says the high is not as strong as being protrayed and the hurricane may come in closer to Richmond than is being forecasted.

Check out the latest weather reports on Thursday night which should give us the estimated landfall point and then again on Friday as she comes ashore.

Good bank fishing at your local pond on Friday but watch for lightning in your area.

Or take a seat in the grass and watch the I-95 traffic creep along the highway!!!

[Sam]

Wednesday Update from www.wxrisk.com - last two paragraphs that I cleaned up for grammer:

Throughout all this keep in mind…the further east you are then the worst the conditions will be.

In North Carolina if you are west of -I95 then things should not be that bad on Saturday — some rain and some wind but it will not be a major event.

In Central Virginia as one moves WEST of I-95 into the Piedmont, conditions will rapidly improve and not be nearly as severe as what you are going to see over eastern Virginia. And the closer you are towards Hampton Roads and the lower Chesapeake Bay the worst conditions will be.

In my opinion I think the critical time in the forecast models will be Thursday. By that time the various weather models should have a very good idea of what the cold front is actually going to look like.

Right now all these weather models are guessing that this cold front and trough in the jet stream that moves into the Midwest is going be a strong enough to bend hurricane Irene to the right.

In particular the GFS model and the hurricane models which are run off the GFS are showing that. It’s possible that the cold front and the trough will not be that strong so there could be a shift back to the west on Thursday.

Lastly, if on Thursday we are not seeing a shift back to the west and the hurricane models continue to show Irene tracking to the east then I will make significant changes in the forecast.

[Sam]

Go to this site for the latest forecast.

Going to be a big one along the Atlantic coast.

See what is written about your geographical area.

http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/08/1st-ideas-at-va-nc-md-de-irene-forecast/

[B-Dozer]

Sam, you've been on this for a long time. Hope you, BC and everyone else gets through this as best as possible. Heading my way (NW corner of Ct.) talking 15" of rain,high winds. Had a ton of snow in the winter, buckets or rain this spring/summer, a tornado, now a hurricane. UNCLE!!!

[BASSclary]

Can anyone say HAARP ?

[NorcalBassin]

Wow, first you guys take one of our earthquakes and now you're going to get pounded by part of a hurricane??? Hopefully the West Coast doesn't get a carbon copy. Best of luck fellas- stay safe.

[B-Dozer]

Can anyone say HAARP ?

I remember the pic.of your room, looks like the hurricane touched down there If you have to evacuate, take Sarah Palin's poster with you! Seriously, hope it's not as bad as they're predicting, best wishes to all.

[BASSclary]

I remember the pic.of your room, looks like the hurricane touched down there If you have to evacuate, take Sarah Palin's poster with you! Seriously, hope it's not as bad as they're predicting, best wishes to all.

Haha oh don't worry about me and Ms. Palin

And Last time I checked Hurricanes dont touch down!

[bweave09]

Just bought 11 cases of beer, pork rinds, potato chips, canned food, and some water...bring it on, Irene!

[BASSclary]

Just bought 11 cases of beer, pork rinds, potato chips, canned food, and some water...bring it on, Irene!

It appears there is a flaw with 11 cases of beer. If the power goes out, which is likely, your beer shall get warm. Nobody likes warm beer.