How accurate is 10-15 day weather forecast?

[benito]

Hey Folks-

I've got my annual 3 day fishing trip in a little over 2 weeks.....I'll be fising in Alabamba, and the weather has been HORRIBLE for nearly 2 months (cold, rainy, more cold, more rain, etc....) Water temps are close to 40, water looks like Yoo-Hoo, and everyone is saying nothing is biting......

I'm concerned about the weather, especially water temps. Right now, the "extended 15 day forecast" calls for more of the same - highs in upper 40's, lows in mid 20's, some rain, etc....right up through my trip.

My question - I know it's not ultra-accurate, but for a 10 to 15 day weather forecast, is it usually at least in the ballpark? I'm really hoping for a warming spell, with highs about 60 or better for a few days before. If the 15 day forecast says 45 every day that week, what are the chances it would be completely different? If a major warming-trend were to show up, would they know this far ahead of time, like 2 weeks before?

Like I mentioned, I know anything can happen that far out - just curious, what's been your experience? I've never looked that far ahead on a weather forecast. Am I dreaming to think we'll get a major warming trend, highs in the low to mid 60's for a few days before?

Thanks - really appreciate your help. If you can't tell, this trip is a BIG deal to me each year, and I'm getting real nervous! Trip is Feb. 26th-28th, by the way....If the weather stays this bad, I may postpone until April/May, which I would HATE to have to do!

BEN

[JohnnyBigger]

not at all accurate at least not down here in Florida. Plan for the worst conditions and you wont be disappointed.

[Branuss04]

I would say it's just as accurate as the 3 day... which can't be trusted.

[FishinTN]

How accurate is the daily forecast here in TN.....

[cart7t]

Weather can be really unpredictable in

Alabamba this time of year.

[D4u2s0t]

it's about as accurate as writing down "sunny" "rainy" "snow" "cold" "warm" on a piece of paper, and throwing a dart.  I can stick my head out the door and be just as accurate as the weatherman lol

[brushhoggin]

agreed. its not accurate at all. yet i still check it out. any weather experts out there to chime in? i can only take another weekend of no fishing before i'm completely bald and the extended forecast is telling me 30 percent chance o rain and a high of 50 degrees for everyday next week. its like the curb your enthusiasm episode when Larry thinks the weather man is falsely predicting rain so he can have the whole golf course (lake in our case) to himself.

[Raul]

Well, a couple of years ago I was going to fish this lake called La Pólvora about 100 miles from home, checked the weather forecast on Monday for the weekend ( we were going on Sunday ), here 's in general terms what came up: cloudy with 20% probability of rain. I said "koool !", why kool ? cuz if you happen to live where I live cloudy is like a blessing when you are fishing in the middle of the summer where temps can soar above 100 degrees. So on Sunady 5:00 AM we went fishing to La Pólvora, we arrived at 7:00 AM, put the boat on the water, not a single cloud in the sky and no clouds in sight  :-/, oh well it 's early morning so clouds should not take long to appear .... yeah right  :. Not only there wasn 't a single cloud in the sky all day long, we got roasted from above, roasted from the glare and to make things worse, the lake being formed by damming a canyon is rock in any form you like it, no problem when the water is high and the surface reaches the vegetation level, but the lake was missing 15-20 ft of water so what 's left is only the bare rock and that gets hot and irradiates heat like an friggin ' iron. Ahh, and the breeze don 't help either, it 's like having a blow drier blowing on you set on HOT !.

So my point is, don 't plan ahead based on the weather forecast, you 'll get dissapointed more than often.

[roadwarrior]

Here in the Mid South, weather forecasting is

99.9% accurate August through mid September:

Temperatures in the high 90s to low 100s;

humidity 65% or greater; and a 10% chance

of showers, except when it's raining!

8-)

[WRB]

If the weather changed dramatically the next 2 weeks, say sunny 75 degree days, would that change your plans?

The bass only know that the water is cold and cold water slows down their egg development and need to eat a lot of food. 2 weeks of good weather may warm up the water 5 degrees; at 45 it's still cold water.

If you are planing to catch bass on the banks, then extending your trip by 1 to 2 months is a good plan.

If you just want to bass fish and catch bass where they are located, then it really doesn't matter. Dress for the weather and fish where the bass are located with what they want to eat.

We haven't found a way to predict weather beyond what we can see and measure via satellites and pressure zones. In the middle of the country, you can see weather systems approaching for about a week, anything longer is guess work. Predicting 2 weeks of continued similar weather is within reason for your area. Long range weather forecasting requires a lot of guess work.

WRB

[J-B]

benito, A forecast that far out will be highly unreliable.  If you wish to look into the future a bit, a 5 day forecast for Alabama will be about 70-75% more reliable than it is here in Atlanta, GA where we can barely rely on a 24hr forecast to be accurate.

[jb7725]

not very accurate....

[32251]

I would not send the money in based on the 10-15 day forcast!

[stalking coyote]

Plan on fishing the lake conditions that you know... "Water looks like Yoo-Hoo"... well two weeks of good weather isn't going to clear that up completly for sure... and any additional rain... well forget it... plan on muddy to stained for sure... and like someone said... if the current water temperature is 40 degree's... then two weeks of warmer weather... let's face it... you ain't gonna get 70's... just look at the weather fronts that moved through the last two weeks... the water will still be 50 degree's or lower... so plan on cold, muddy-stained water... pack for cold weather... you don't have to use it... but at least you'll have it if you do need it... and be glad you get to go fishing... in two weeks we will still be iced over :'(

Good Luck and have fun fishing... even given the poor conditions I would be happy to just go!

[Tin]

Never around here. They couldn't get a snow forcast correct when it was happening yesterday. Predicted 10-15" all throughout RI. The upper part of the state got 1-3". Twenty miles south we got about 6-10".

Don't believe it until I see it.

[senile1]

In most cases I would say forget the forecast and be prepared to fish whatever comes your way. If you backout every time you think the weather may be bad, you'll cancel half of your trips. If backing out is an option and you can get most of your money back from reservations, more power to you.

[bassinbob54]

yea i agree , just go and then deal with the conditions..thats fishing