Not For The Weak Of Mind

[Hale]

I am an engineer as well but I have no interest in bringing anything of a work nature to my fishing life so this will be short and sweet. No big words or over inflated egos, just something very simple:

14                   Vibration Bait

13                   Horny Toad/ Buzz Bait

12                   Spinner Bait

11                   Mid-Crank/ ChatterBait/ SwimJig

10                   Deep Crank/ BIG SpinnerBait

09                   Hard Jerk/ Popper/ Walkin Stick Bait

08                   DEEP Hard Jerk

07                   SwimBait

06                   Carolina Rig

05                   Jig-n-Trailer

04                   Texas Rig Unpegged w/ Bead (Soft Plastics)

03                   Split Shot w/o bead

02                   Jig Worm (Shakey Head/ Spot Remover)

01                   Drop Shot

0.05                   Weightless Soft Plastics

Refering to you chart:

Does spinner bait rank higher becuase of its vibration? If so, is it because you based this on colorado blades, double blades, or what? A chatterbaits biggest appeal is the vibrations it gives off. But its even further down the list.

How does a carolina rig rank higher than a soft plastic when in essence 24" away from that weight is a weightless soft plastic.

We can keep going....

This list is entirely too vague even if you removed all of the variables that everyone is mentioning.

[Hale]

Lightbulb!

So what you really trying to say is: A fish cant think like humans so they will actually strike from instinct either caused by hunger, fear, or aggression. And with the array of lures on the market we should be able to narrow down what will casue this instinct to work in our favor.

Eureka!

[FIN-S-R]

Well Im glad to see Im getting some feedback from you guys, and I really do appreciate it...helps to better quantify certain perceptions that must be overcome, and CHRIS said it best that so much of fishing is mental, maybe not wetting a line in general is mental, but really trying to zero in on that key trigger to maximize success...thats mental.

All of you who mentioned the insurmountable pile of variables to consider are on target, except that there is a sort of rule or trend in the natural world that goes like this:

A system will be controlled by the most limiting factor. Now considering this, you can in almost every situation eliminate a large number of variables in order to deliniate the highest probability areas as well as the highest probability techniques. Ex. High water Temp combined with clear skies during mid-summer- low wind. This creates a situation whereas many areas can be elimiated as the day progresses as well as eliminating a number of variables. Now the variables that will be eliminated depend on water clarity (theres really only 3 types for an individual body of water) and water temp...well water quality in general, with keeping the presence of available forage in mind. Think about the way a bass makes a living for a moment- they HAVE to find acceptable temp to maintain an accebtable metabolism, they HAVE to find ample forage to accomodate that metabolic rate, and they HAVE to reside in an area with acceptable O2 levels. Those are the HAVE TO's. They want an ambush location, They want an escape route, and they want comfortable accomodations (bottum comp/light diffusion/short distance to food....). So in understanding this, you can exclude certain variables in certain areas at certain times of the day.

There are exceptions, and you can catch a fish on anything at any time due to random chance or perserverence, but the majority of a single type of organism will exhibit tendencies toward a common mean (average) behavior at a certain time in a certain place based on a few overwhelming variables.

The Scenario previously described is one which I ran into on a few tourneys this year. The first was a near miss, The second was a disaster, and the third was the highest weight Ive ever weighed in. The final scenario (unlike the first two) was one in which I analyzed the situation based on variables which I could exclude initially and then considering those few overwhelming variables, I was able to quickly adjust, and within 45 min I caught 3 keepers over 4lbs apiece and the other two were 2 and 3. My partner laughed at me when I pulled out my "Guide" table (it contains alot more than just reaction rankings of techniques), and it was a last resort to me (Im skeptical too). But it allowed me to focus my thought process on the variables that were affecting the system...not the numerous ones that didnt matter. Since that tourney Ive spent some time testing and tweaking, and many more hours of field testing are necessary, but its going in a good direction.

So yes, there are many variables that can be considered, but there are really only a few in a certain situation that matter...those that exhibit the most influence on the system.

In response to those that made comments about a fish being able think, Ill just say this, "Logical" thought as we know it is the confusion of instinct due to emotion. If fish could Think they would all be dead. Thats just MHO.

[FIN-S-R]

HALE: On the spinner bait/ chatterbait deal, its based on profile..granted theres not an awful lot of difference...I look at a c-bait as if it resides somewhere btw a sp-bait and a mid-shallow crank. On the t-rig/C-rig deal, you have two components exerting stmuli a distance from each other on a c-rig creating a "zone" of action, where as all your action is more localized w/ a t-rig.

I think I detected a little sarcasm in the 2nd post, but yeah i mean we all know that, but ive been skunked and frustrated, and I want to figure somethings out...I know science (research/data analyzation methods) and have pub'd a few studies (not on fish), so Id like to see how I can do at applying my $70K worth of education toward something I actually like.

But thats just my POV, and I hope I dont come across as an ego-maniac...im just a guy who reall really likes to fish...wait no no, catch, really likes to catch

[Guest avid]

I'm going to jump in here again.

First I want to apologize to fin for my glib, if tongue in cheek, opening post.

I fully respect what you are doing. Unfortunately there are a couple of negatives I see associated with it.

#1 - As virtually eveyone is saying, the # of variables is overwhelming.

#2 - If you were writing you doctoral thesis, I'd say fine, but don't you think this is a massive amount of overkill just to take your daughter fishing?

Now that being said,

I will (as Keithscatch is so fond of pointing out ) speak out of the other side of my mouth.

GO FOR IT DUDE

Allow me to attempt to be of some meager assistance to you.

This is YOUR study. You set the parameters. Yes, there are countless variables, but limit your study to the variables that you can control and make it clear that the study only applies to those situations that fall within the defined parameters.

What you are attempting is what some people would call thier "lifes work".

Take it in bite size chunks.

Make one small conclusion, follow it with a study using a limited set of different variables and draw another limited conclusion. If you continue with this. It is theoretically possible that eventually you will have covered the majority of situations that most anglers face. This process may indeed uncover enough relevant, scientifically valid evidence to influence how baits are designed, marketed, and fished.

Once again, I admire your intellegence and zeal.

To that I will add; Best of luck to you with sincere wishes for success.

Avid.

[FatBoy]

After sleeping on this a bit I'm going to change my tune slightly.  Originally I said that you are better off going with the rules of thumb "that we all know."  Well, maybe we don't all know the rules of thumb, or we have different ones (and some may be better than others).  If your system can essentially provide an alternative to those rules of thumb, that could be a big benefit for those of us with less experience.  For example, if your system could tell me that on an overcast, summer day with clear water and water temp about 75-80, I should try dragging a big, craw-colored jig-n-pig near the tops of humps and ends of points (I have no idea if that would be correct; it's just an example) then that could be very valuable for me.  

So to the extent that your system is meant to provide general rules of thumb, and not the "optimal" bait for the day, I think you might be onto something.  

Good luck and keep us posted!

[roadwarrior]

My experince suggests that if you put a lure/bait within a few inches of a bass' mouth, you have a fair chance of getting bit. The vast majority (all) of my biggest bass have been caught on what I perceive to be a "feeding" bite, even while fishing "reaction" baits.

It is my observation that the most important variables are not lures, but depth and structure/ cover. On a river, 75% of being successful involves current and its impact on the various structural features of the river. The other 25% involves the predominate natural prey: minnows or crawdads. I'm not suggesting that all soft plastics should resemble a crawdad, I don't even know what a Senko is suppose to immitate, but my point is this: When bass are more focused on bottom dwelling prey, soft plastics and jigs are very effective. Right now, during the fall, minnow type baits are more effective for me. Mostly, I think, this is because all of the fry have grown up to meal size and they are easy to catch when they school up. The fact that bass eat other fish year around is why hard baits work year around.

So, choosing "exactly" the right lure is not nearly as important as fishing the right structure, at the right depth, with the right "class" of lure. If you find the Holy Grail of lure selection through your study, you will still need to find the fish. I am in complete agreement with Rick Clunn, " Catching bass is easy, the challenge is finding them."

[FIN-S-R]

AVID: Your words are well spoken and well recieved. Your correct in the time and effort investment...thats why although somewhat hesitantly, I went ahead posted this topic...wasnt sure as to the type of response, but the greater the response and the greater number of questions allows for a more thorough thought process and ultimately cuts time investment.

When attempting to achieve a "solution" to a "problem" i realize I formulate a hypothesis then attempt to disprove the answers I come up with to solve the "prob" in order to evaluate their validity..im starting to do some stats on my data just to see what degrees of error im getting into.

As for the taking the kids fishing goes, I never let anything get in the way of that, and I must confess...this isnt just for the kids!!

I work as a data coordinator/analyst/manager for an OIl Co. as a result of experience being a reasercher thus far. I only go to work mon-fri to finance my REAL life which is 1.GOD/2.FAMILY/3.OUTDOORS. So yeah i guess U could say this is a lifes work, but i look at more like a lifelong addiction to the outdoors at least thats how my wife describes it.

[RoLo]

In my initial post, I said that I cannot comment on your study without seeing the nuts-and-bolts.

Now were up to post #33 and I see nothing on the board but opinion-after-opinion (we're going to factor that out...right?).

If you were looking for additional variables to factor into your program, you've got a great start (some really fine input).

Is it possible to devise a "system" that enhances your ability to catch bass? Of course it is!

A slow-steady aim is usually better than shooting-from-the-hip. The best analogy that comes to mind is the stock market.

It seems that most investors trade from the seat-of-their-pants, believing that it's impossible to time the stock market.

Before the Internet, I spent several years developing a "Stock Timing" program. At the end of every day,

I'd grab reams of tractor-printer paper off the floor, but not in vain. It enabled me to retire well ahead of schedule.

Most any phenomenon can be quantified through trend analysis, because all natural events tend to move in trends.

Though I'm not a skeptic, I need to be a realist. When it comes to developing a "Presentation Model", the variables are

overwhelming, but even worse, they're in constant motion! Since you're attempting to hit a moving a target using trend analysis,

your most invaluable tool will be a "Trend Reversal" indicator. I mean that sincerely, because the sooner we recognize

a trend reversal, the sooner we're back in the game. Nothing is impossible ('impossible' is a mindset) but one thing is sure,

you certainly have your work cut-out for you

Roger

[K_Mac]

FIN-S-R

I said at the start of this thread that I like your idea. What I like even better, after reading your responses to the feedback, is your attitude. Your ability to take crtical input graciously will go far in helping you in your work.

[FIN-S-R]

RoLo: i hear what your saying and believe me i do not intend on formulating a stand alone "lure selector". If you notice in some of my posts I have referred to a project that this table is a part of.

The "reaction gradation table" is simply a range of stimuli producers at different levels we as anglers commonly associate with fishing. Essentially the lures or techniques in the table are specific names that refer to a specific level of stimulous. Rather than assigning arbitrary number scores to the different levels of stimulli, I have associated them with easily recognizable and ubiquitous refereneces to fishin' stuff.

I also agree with the seat of the pants comment and this is not at all a seat of the pants type of endevour. Heres the short version of this project's history.

The first 23-24yrs of my life- getting addicted to the outdoors and making many general observations.

Next 6 mos.- planning strategies and experiment design and defining parameters.

1 year- trial and error on data collection techniques and data organization.

6mos- trial runs w/ data collection and management strategies.

6mos- refining collected data and salvaging usable information from failed collection attempts.

1.5 yr- collecting data for specific parameters, and implementing into analyzation techniques.

Now here I am today... Im still tweeking and re-re-organizing and splitting and lumping to adjust curves in the trend analyses I have going. I am finding that a few simple data anylization techniques are much more accurate than 1 really complex algorithm.

I have produced a somewhat usable product, but there are still elements that need tweeking...thus I air my laundry on this forum.

And after having you guys promt the thinking process in a few new directions, Ive made some changes...not drastic, but it cleared up what was a shotgun plot into a pretty nice bi-modal distribution consisting of a more reaction component and a more finnesse component for each of the 12 behavior phases i have included in the project...hows this look

1.Weightless      

2.D-shot

3.Jig Worm

4.Split Shot

5.T-rig

6.Jig-n-Trailer

7.C-Rig

8.SwimBait

9.Deep Hard Jerk

10.Hollow Frog

11.Hard Jerk Bait

12.Swim Jig

13.Popper

14.Mid-Crank

15.Deep Crank

16.Solid Frog

17.Big SpinnerBait

18.Spinnerbait

19.Chatter Bait

20.BuzzBait

21.Vibration Bait

[BD]

Fin I would love to help you in this endeavour. I live in N.E. OK. around Skiatook....where are these two bodies of water you are referring too? The title of this thread (albiet off topic slightly) implies slight 'arrogance' by the way it's worded.

I also believe though in there has to be some natural law working in wild animals, but governed 100% by this?......perhaps not.

I am going to go back and re-read all the posts. I seriously would love to help out in data collection, fishing experiments, lure selections that seem to work in my part of the state, etc. etc.

Oh and yes, please paragraphs people!!!

[FIN-S-R]

BD: I worded the title that way on purpose to mabe draw a little MORE criticisim and spur that natural urge to "set this guy straight". I really dont want to come across arrogant, but i do understand the human response to this kinda of stuff and lets just say means to an end.

The two lakes to which i refer are murray and texoma. I live smack dab btw the two, i mean literally almost equi-distant from each (11 min in h2o at murray/ 15min in h20 at Tex.) if youve fished these two very much youll know that they fish really different.

Murray is a medium to smallish clear lake with lots of grass pond weed and big pads, and has a sandstone watershed for the most part and is really getting dominated by smallies. But dont think there arent some freagin' huge largemouth in that pond...ive seen em' during spawn. 1 in particular for 3 yrs in a row bedded under the same stump. Shes easily double digits but im not gonna try and lie about how much i think she weighs....I just know shes bigger than any bass Ive ever seen "on the hoof". Got her to bite once in three years...she snapped 25lb vanish fc like it was spider silk...man oh man...maybe next april. I view murray as more of an overpressured trophy lake, but i will get plenty of arguments from the bank beaters on that one.

Anyway, texoma as you may know isnt well known for big largemouth, but it has a really healthy population of large/small/spots and doesnt exhibit the same overpressured symtoms as does murray. Some state record smallies have come from tex and i figure more will in the future (I had a couple of monsters this summer). It has a cheifly limestone local watershed with the washita and red bringing in mixed minerology from as far west and north as the texas panhandle. It doesnt have much in the way of vegitation, but the little pads are beginning to come on pretty strong. It can range from pretty clear to choco. milk.- Alot like keystone

Neither of these lakes are extreme cases in composition, rather they are averages of the two extremes.

Id like to hear your thoughts and input

And as for the 100% comment- your right nothing is ever 100% in nature, but what I intend to do is deliniate a mean (average) and figure out how to work both sides within the statistical deviation.

[BD]

Familiar with both....yes different for certain.

We have lakes that also are 'vastly' different comparison wise.

Dripping Springs is mainly wood and wind, and 'stained' water, where as Skiatook is gem clear, rocky, and full of both smallies/spots/and largemouth (large not so good as it once was however.)

I will continue to add my two lincolns on this subject, because while fascinating and mind probing, it's tough to nail anything down, but I can see this huge study come full turn and be helpful....even if seasonal.

I haven't seen any consideration for spooky fish or noise related variables, in relation to being a negative influence. I can assure you, in our 'clearer' lakes, noise is a huge factor at certain times of the year, or even the day sometimes. So would we then tell people to not use rattles or fish close? Definitely not I say....

[BD]

Thanks for the paragraphs too

[FIN-S-R]

My thoughts on "spooky fish":

You have to start out with the "joe six pack" bass in mind, and then adjust. Tex is a pretty good place to find the "joe six pack" or "jane wal-mart" bass. Not overly spooky and not overly agressive. Slightly cautious, but ready to eat. Now on murray I have found that the majority fo the 14"+ fish I am after are somewhat more attuned to the finnesse end of the reaction gradation included in previous posts. But I have also found that with a long enough cast or sustained boat traffic like summertime, even the spookiest of the murray fish will smash an LVR or vibe and even a buzz on a calm clear day.

This again relates back to some statements I made about considering only those variables with overwhelming influence on a system. At a point pressure becomes less of a factor based on instinct conditioning. Now if those fish could think...they'd be outta there quicker than you could say scat. In this respect conditioning is detrimental and goes against logical thought.

Ex. I have learned not to leave my purple gulp worms dragging along in the water (they dry out real fast) on murray during the summer. When boat traffic reaches its highest point sometime in july those main lake fish will literally come up and hang them selves taking a swipe at anything with a purplish or whitish color to it you leave hanging over the side of the boat...and big 'uns too..I lost a rod last summer to this. ive also put a couple of keepers in the boat this way..purely by accident and i didnt win anything because of it.

So back to your comment...You have to adjust to meet your specific conditions, but that doesnt mean you have to go out in left field to do it.

[BD]

Major influences (my view) :

Wind and direction of wind

Water Temp

Sun/moon phase

Cloud cover (and the lack thereof)

Thermocline (specifically where it is depth wise)

Barometric Pressure (general ranges are okay i.e. 30-40)

Sunrise/Sunset time (goes with sun direction too, since it's time of the year)

Water Clarity (can be broken up several times or general rules 3-10' visibility=clear etc)

Forage of body of water

Type of lake (man made or natural)

Structure changes of said B.O.W.

Cover/no cover

From here, this can cover every type of B.O.W. (body of water.) Now the hard part begins.....

[Hale]

FIN - the second post was sarcasm but not to be insulting or disrectful. Just to make light of what we are all after.

[Keithscatch]

Fin I would love to help you in this endeavour. I live in N.E. OK. around Skiatook....where are these two bodies of water you are referring too? The title of this thread (albiet off topic slightly) implies slight 'arrogance' by the way it's worded.

I can't see that this title is considered arrogant. The only arrogant statement on this entire thread was uttered by someone who apparently feels the need to TELL us that he is a "guru" or an "aficionado" on bass. That one floored me.

Now here I am today... Im still tweeking and re-re-organizing and splitting and lumping to adjust curves in the trend analyses I have going

Question I have for you is all of this tweaking, analytical study, and re-organizing of data helping you catch more and bigger bass? If so, then this can be a great tool. If not, then what are you looking to gain by this?

[RoLo]

I also agree with the seat of the pants comment and this is not at all a seat of the pants type endevour

Fin, I hope you understand that I didn't use the phrase "seat-of-the-pants" to describe your project,

on the contrary, it was used to describe an angler "without" a system, just like a trader "without" a system.

I am finding that a few simple data anylization techniques are much more accurate than 1 really complex algorithm.

That statement is probably more accurate than you realize.

To digress, when I coded the stock timing strategy, the first thing I created was a monster (took about 5 years)

It was comprised of overly intricate and complex algorithms, then the light went on.

If other investors aren't willing or able to think outside the box, then I'm acting in a small minority and my system is destined to fail.

In a nutshell, I was trying to measure human emotion, while you're trying to do the same thing with animal reaction (quite similar).

By the way, when I speak of Nuts-and-Bolts, I expected you to say: Tandem Exponential Moving Averages

Roger

[BD]

BD: I worded the title that way on purpose to mabe draw a little MORE criticisim and spur that natural urge to "set this guy straight". I really dont want to come across arrogant, but i do understand the human response to this kinda of stuff and lets just say means to an end.

I took Fin at face value, and just wanted to make sure others would not be 'scared' to add.....knowledge is power in the end. No harm no foul Keithscatch or Fin etc.

[BD]

Fin/gang.....what do you think about my recent post on the "key" variables? I feel (and of course it's only an opinion....kind of like a$$h0les.....the old saying) this covers every type of known body of water, so from this, we can interject thoughts and the main other factors (such as their carnal DNA imprint to feed. the lure's noise/shape/weight)

Etc.....

I really want this to turn into an awesome knowledge tool, more over, suggestions of throw this because I catch fish on it all year.....or something along that lines. I like where this is going is my point.

Post on Lads!

[roadwarrior]

Well,

Here are three rules that you can live by:

1. Fish where they live.

2. Feed them what they eat, or

3. Tick them off.

If you are not on fish, I don't care what you throw or how well you present it, you will NOT catch fish.

I fish a lot of live bait, but if we are just talking about artificials: Your lure should be something they like (soft plastics, jigs and minnow like lures) or something they hate (reaction baits).

[cart7t]

There was this fish biologist name Loren Hill that had spent countless hours in labs with bass and he thought he discovered a way to figure out exactly what color of lure you should be fishing.  He created this really snitzy color gauge with a probe you stuck in the water and it told you precisely what lure you should tie on so the bass could best see in the conditions you were fishing in.  Lure manufacturers lined up creating a special line of lures that worked with his system.  

A couple years later, those color gauges were on the closeout tables along with the lures made for it.

I see the color selector has been "reintroduced" to the next line of suckers.   ;D

Seriously, as has been stated,  trying to take a wild gamefish like a largemouth bass and predict it's preferances so you can can it into a little chart so you can show up at a lake and tie on a lure that's going to stimulate a fish into biting won't work.  You're much better off learning seasonal habits of the fish and the methods that will best take the fish for the conditions you're facing.  I'm afraid it would take many years to compile something like you're trying to do that would have any accuracy at all.

[RoLo]

I see the color selector has been "reintroduced" to the next line of suckers.

I didn't realize that the Color Selector was making a comeback.

I can still see Orlando Wilson dunking the sensor into the drink, then trying to match his lure color to the readout (Oh Holy One)