A perspective on the swine flu "crisis"

[.ghoti.]

As of yesterday, 91 cases in the US, 1 death (a Mexican child visiting in TX).

Other flu deaths a year in US: 36,000.  

Shark attacks: 59.  

Accidental poisoning deaths: 24,000.  

Deaths from falls: 20,000.  

Pneumonia deaths: 58,000.  

Motor vehicle accident deaths: 44,000.  

Medical error deaths: 98,000.  

Hit by lightning deaths: 47.

Relax, folks.  Have an adult beverage.

[roadwarrior]

After a quick search, I can't find a number for "2008 homicides",

but I suspect that number is significant, too.

16,929 in 2007:

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

[atx_newbie]

Couldn't agree more, this is getting a little ridiculous.  Americans are so easily scared these days, it's kind of embarrassing.

[tyrius.]

Is it an accurate perspective to compare full year numbers against the MUCH shorter time period that the swine flu has been around?

[SmokeRise1]

Did you read "State of Fear" by Michael Crichton?  Swine Flu is the new Global Warming.

[nateobot]

DON'T DO THIS!

[roadwarrior]

16,929 murders % 365 days = 46.39 murders per day on average

I don't know when the first flu victim died, but if it was two weeks ago,

14 X 46.39 = 649.46 murders on average over the same time period.

If murders in Mexico during this period were included, I suspect the

average would at least double.

[SirSnookalot]

Name has been changed to H1N1 flu...strong pork lobby in Washington.

[Palomar]

As of yesterday, 91 cases in the US, 1 death (a Mexican child visiting in TX).

Other flu deaths a year in US: 36,000.

Shark attacks: 59.

Accidental poisoning deaths: 24,000.

Deaths from falls: 20,000.

Pneumonia deaths: 58,000.

Motor vehicle accident deaths: 44,000.

Medical error deaths: 98,000.

Hit by lightning deaths: 47.

Relax, folks. Have an adult beverage.

Yep all is well, lets have another Adult bevearge it fixes everything

[Redlinerobert]

Shot of tequila.  The only known cure for the flu.

[Daniel A.]

...gotta love slow media weeks. : This isn't the first time the swine flu has been around.

[fathom]

...gotta love slow media weeks. : This isn't the first time the swine flu has been around.

in 1976, the government spent untold millions for a swine flu vaccine the first time it came around.

i think the vaccine killed more folks than the flu.

[Muddy]

In 1957, the Pandemic Spread of Asian flu saw 70,000 dead, and the papers were asking why isn't anything being done about this?

This is not the news doing this the WHO raised the alert to Stage 5, Pandemic Spread is Here, these are not alarmists, this scale was set up in 1999, it has never been used at level 5 before

Does this mean we should all live in fall out shelters

NO: it means that the elderly,people with COPD, HIV,HEP B& C,diabetes and the very young are at great risk. This is important, non hysterical information to have

So when it's all over, with minimal deaths , all you good old boys have another beer, and laugh about how right you were.

Meanwhile it is actually because of these "hysterical" moves the WHO is taking and the member governments that will be responsible for minimizing fatalities.

[Long Mike]

NO: it means that the elderly,people with COPD, HIV,HEP B& C,diabetes and the very young are at great risk. This is important, non hysterical information to have.

Gosh Muddy, does that mean that you and I have to move to a fallout shelter and wear surgical masks?  If that's the case, don't even think about approaching me wanting to play "doctor."  

[roadwarrior]

Dude!

Bring along a couple of extra boxes of wine, we can't run out!

;D ;D

Muddy,

Lighten up a bit. We are all concerned, but the disease appears to be

much less dangerous than has been hyped. I minimize no death, but

this does not appear to be a "catastrophic" event.

On a more positive note, perhaps this event prepares us to better for

another emergency. I don't want that either, but this flu has yet to be

proven "generally" life threatening.

I think there is a general distrust of international organizations. There

seems to be more interest in spending our money than solving the

worlds problems.

[.dsaavedra.]

DON'T DO THIS!

that pic is golden ;D

[Muddy]

NO: it means that the elderly,people with COPD, HIV,HEP B& C,diabetes and the very young are at great risk. This is important, non hysterical information to have.

Gosh Muddy, does that mean that you and I have to move to a fallout shelter and wear surgical masks? If that's the case, don't even think about approaching me wanting to play "doctor."

I'd rather play Bernie Madoff and invest your money for you ;D

[FishingPirate]

I like your perspective on it Ill worry about it when the time comes but for now, I have enough things like what I'm going to wear tomorrow to worry with.

[.ghoti.]

I'm not trying to make light of the problem for certain people. As Muddy has pointed out, the very young and very old are at risk. Those with chronic illnesses, compromised immune systems, etc, are at risk.

But, the point is, the same people are at risk every season, from whatever flu strain is circulating. This year is no different than any other year for these folks.

The director  of the WHO has raised the threat to level 5. She is treating this as a pandemic.

One of her underlings was on NPR yesterday morning. He said "raising the level this high, in this short time frame, with this little data, is unprecedented".

Read between those lines, if you will. This is as close as a person in his position will ever come to saying, in the public media, that THE BOSS SCREWED UP.

In today's bleak economic climate what she has done is screamed fire in a crowded theatre; on a global scale.

In my opinion this chuckle-headed person, who's name escapes me, (and whom I don't care enough about to bother looking up ), has passed the threshold from the irresponsible to the criminal.

[atx_newbie]

This same thing happens every couple of years.  In my short lifetime, I have seen 1) west nile virus 2) bird flu 3) SARS 4) Anthrax 5) Mad Cow 6) hoof-and-mouth 7) Pig Flu ....

And every time, tragically, it's only the very young and very old that are harmed.

Not to put on my tinfoil hat or anything, but I have a complete distrust of anyone in the pharmaceutical business, and most in the medical business, which leads me to think that things like this get blown way out of proportion as a means to sell more drugs.

I don't mean to turn this into an attack on doctors, so if any of you are, don't get offended.  My personal experiences have just led me to not trust doctors.

[tyrius.]

I'm not trying to make light of the problem for certain people. As Muddy has pointed out, the very young and very old are at risk. Those with chronic illnesses, compromised immune systems, etc, are at risk.

But, the point is, the same people are at risk every season, from whatever flu strain is circulating. This year is no different than any other year for these folks.

This is actually incorrect.  The Mexican fatalities for this flu have mainly been younger adults.  People who don't normally die of the flu.

http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/news/fullstory_83415.html

Mexico has said the flu had killed 20 people and could be to blame for 48 more deaths. In all, more than 1,000 suspected cases have been reported nationwide. Most of the dead were aged 25 to 45, a worrying sign because a hallmark of past pandemics has been high fatalities among healthy young adults.

[Palomar]

I think they are doing what we've asked, it could be like Mexico and not respond, which turns out like it did there.

Just shows you that you can't please everyone. They gripe cause you don't do enough and then they gripe cause you do to much.

I guess it surprises me that a supposed mature generation would think like a kid and believe things won't happen to them, its gonna will be someone else not me

I understand not over reacting as if your gonna die all of a sudden, but whats the fault in taking precaution on something like this, heck what they know about it changes every day, that's warning enough for me to be watching out for it, if its weak or not.

I really hope its gonna die out.

Ghoti its the beverage comment that stirred it up, some feel there's nothing good that comes from drinking alcohol, so it kinda desensitised the issue when you closed it that way, but I for one appreciate your second post on explaining

[Raul]

The alert stages of the WHO are not like DEFCON stages, all right ?

Raising it to stage 5 doesn 't mean the international borders are closed, flights get cancelled and no people are allowed to travel, no you ain 't gonna see the USAMRID of the CDC personnel wandering aroung wearing hazmat suits nor the Army and the National Guard blocking roads and deterring you from traveling at gun point. Raising the alert to stage 5 only means that all countries should implement the basic sanitary precautions, stage 5 means the disease is transmissible from human to human and that there are more than two countries involved and that the contingency plans should come into effect.

Of course the media makes it look worse than it is and turns the situation into a circus.

[roadwarrior]

The alert stages of the WHO are not like DEFCON stages, all right ?

Raising it to stage 5 doesn 't mean the international borders are closed, flights get cancelled and no people are allowed to travel, no you ain 't gonna see the USAMRID of the CDC personnel wandering aroung wearing hazmat suits nor the Army and the National Guard blocking roads and deterring you from traveling at gun point. Raising the alert to stage 5 only means that all countries should implement the basic sanitary precautions, stage 5 means the disease is transmissible from human to human and that there are more than two countries involved and that the contingency plans should come into effect.

Of course the media makes it look worse than it is and turns the situation into a circus.

Thanks Raul!

I think nearly everyone, including myself, assumed raising the

status of the alert to Stage 5 meant something far more ominious.

So, what defines Stage 6?  

[Raul]

This same thing happens every couple of years. In my short lifetime, I have seen 1) west nile virus 2) bird flu 3) SARS 4) Anthrax 5) Mad Cow 6) hoof-and-mouth 7) Pig Flu ....

And every time, tragically, it's only the very young and very old that are harmed.

Not to put on my tinfoil hat or anything, but I have a complete distrust of anyone in the pharmaceutical business, and most in the medical business, which leads me to think that things like this get blown way out of proportion as a means to sell more drugs.

I don't mean to turn this into an attack on doctors, so if any of you are, don't get offended. My personal experiences have just led me to not trust doctors.

Now on the subject of what our friend has seen:

West nile virus.- it 's an animal deasese transmissible to humans, the problem with that one is that it 's transmitted to humans through biological vectors ( mosquitoes ), just like equine encephalitis or malaria or yellow fever.

Avian influenza.- that one has two sides, one is the possibility of transmission to humans ( and become the 1918 pandemia all over again ), the other one is that it 's transmissible to birds, which birds ? the birds we eat so it can wipe out the entire poultry industry of a country, that 's why it is important.

Foot and mouth disease.- it does not transmit to humans but it transmits between hoofed animals ( swine, cattle, goats, sheep ), even though the mortality rate is extremely low the morbility rate is extremely high and the economic cost of it is in the billions, cows, goats and sheep don 't produce milk, swine don 't fatten fast, cattle abort, animals can 't eat nor move, the reason why it was erradicated was the economic cost. Canada, the US and Mexico are foot and mouth disease free and they plan to keep it that way.

Anthrax.- anthrax is what we call a teluric disease ( bound to earth ), for those not familiar with it, take a soil sample from and incubate it on a media like blood agar and you 'll see anthrax colonies growing, in hundreds of places anthrax used to be quite common to find in the cattle and if wasn 't for vaccination in areas where it 's prevalent cattle would not be able to graze. So why the alert ? cuz it was not the ordinary common anthrax what was in those letters, it was biological weapons grade anthrax, a much more virulent strain developed for biological weapons.

Mad Cow disease.- it 's caused by a molecule called prion and causes a degenerative disease in the brain ( spongiform encephalitis ), why the alert ? because if you eat meat contaminated with the molecule you can get it. Also, it can get into our meat chain of production when our domestic animals consume contaminated material in the form of meat and meat by products flour used to feed them.

So, "out of proportion" it depends on how you look at it.