Swine flu- Question for Raul?

[Fisher of Men]

In light of the recent media hype and "state of emergency" declared by the U.S. , I would like to ask Dr. Raul's opinion of the situation.  Is all this hype merited?  Should we be more concerned about it, etc.?

Would you be kind enough to respond, Raul?  

Thanks,

Fisher

P.S.  For those of you who do not know, Raul is a veterinarian practicing in Mexico.  

[Raul]

Flu viruses can get pretty scary, why ? because they are RNA viruses that mutate very easily, in the case of the influenza virus it doesn 't limit itself to humans but can jump from humans to swine or to birds ( domestic or wild ) and viceversa, in all these interespecies passages it can incorporate DNA material from the species it 's currently residing to it 's RNA creating a mutant that can cause a more severe illness than it usually does.

This is what happened in 1918 with the Spanish Influenza outbreak which caused hundreds of thousands or fatalities all over the world, the allied forces in Europe suffered more casualities by the flu than from all the combats that occurred in WWI.

What makes the CDC loose it 's sleep with influenza viruses is that they can be transmitted very easily ( direct/indirect contact and/or airborne ) from person to person, also, they don 't know what kind of damage the virus is capable of doing and by the time they know what the virus can do it could have been easily spread to a large number of the population.

The hype is for real ( the sate of emergency )l, it 's not invented, the sky is not falling but they aren 't kidding when they say you should take precautions ( the normal precautions you should take with flu ) until they can figure out how dangerous the strain is.

Some cases have been reported here, several people have died, but you know how it is, who knows how sick those people were before being hospitalized, even a cold if not treated properly in the right time can turn into a life threatening pneumonia.

It has already happened ( in 1918 ) so they don 't want to take any chances.

Now, back on the 1918 influenza outbreak, recent discoveries by DNA sampling from material found in tissue samples taken from soldiers from the WWI who died of influenza ( the US Army has samples stored in their vaults ) and from samples obtained from cadavers ( in Alaska and Siberia ) of people who died during that period of time indicate that the influenza virus of 1918 had avian DNA and that it most probably originated in Asia ( considered by the virologists as the cradle of all influenza viruses ) and from there it spreaded all over the world.

[Fisher of Men]

Thanks for the quick response, Raul!  I appreciate the information presented.  

[Palomar]

Thanks for the quick response, Raul! I appreciate the information presented.

X2

[Raul]

You are welcome !

Imagine why they are scared, let 's take the 1918 influenza outbreak as a starting point, it affected 20% of the world population ( how many are we now ? 6 BILLION ), it killed about 5% of the people who suffered it, estimates indicate that the 1918 outbreak killed as much as 100 million people in the earth ( more than the black plague in the 14 th century ).

In 1918 there were no airplanes, there were no roads, our modern super fast means of transportation did not exist back then, that means that back then there were not only fewer people in the planet, it also meant that the disease could not travel so fast and still it managed to kill an estimate of 100 million people. Imagine what it can do now.

Simple math, following the 20% morbility and the 5% mortality parameters of the 1918 outbreak if we got affected by the same disease now:

1.2 billion people sick

300 million people will perish

Now you see why the "state of emergency."

So far schools are closed until May 6th down here.

[roadwarrior]

Geez...

When you put it in perspective for us, it's really scary.

[aarogb]

You are welcome !

Imagine why they are scared, let 's take the 1918 influenza outbreak as a starting point, it affected 20% of the world population ( how many are we now ? 6 BILLION ), it killed about 5% of the people who suffered it, estimates indicate that the 1918 outbreak killed as much as 100 million people in the earth ( more than the black plague in the 14 th century ).

In 1918 there were no airplanes, there were no roads, our modern super fast means of transportation did not exist back then, that means that back then there were not only fewer people in the planet, it also meant that the disease could not travel so fast and still it managed to kill an estimate of 100 million people. Imagine what it can do now.

Simple math, following the 20% morbility and the 5% mortality parameters of the 1918 outbreak if we got affected by the same disease now:

1.2 billion people sick

300 million people will perish

Now you see why the "state of emergency."

So far schools are closed until May 6th down here.

     WOW!!!!  300 million people dead.  That is the whole United States population.

[Dan:]

Raul, I understand that developments in transportation would increase the rate at which the flu spread and also the amount of affected people but what about the developments in medicine? Don't we also have better access and better techniques of health care? Wouldn't the mortality rate of 5% be lower now because more people can receive better treatment?

[Tin]

Raul, I understand that developments in transportation would increase the rate at which the flu spread and also the amount of affected people but what about the developments in medicine? Don't we also have better access and better techniques of health care? Wouldn't the mortality rate of 5% be lower now because more people can receive better treatment?

x2  Even with a mutated strain we would be more likely to find a faster way to treat it as well.

[bassdocktor]

Hey guys I can jump in here alittle bit as a pharmacy student. Viruses are harder to treat. Generally, you wind up treating the symptoms not the actual infection.

While yes there are improvements the best steps you can take would be anything preventative. That's why they keeps saying to wash your hands. Sounds simple but it really does work to help you over all.

I'm sure Raul can add much more to this as I'm still beginning my journey into the profession.

[Micro]

When they said Avian Flu was a pandemic threat, I said "when pigs fly."  Little did I know those pigs are coming home to roost.

[skunked_again]

this is why we love Raul, or just one of the reasons.

[roadwarrior]

Raul, I understand that developments in transportation would increase the rate at which the flu spread and also the amount of affected people but what about the developments in medicine? Don't we also have better access and better techniques of health care? Wouldn't the mortality rate of 5% be lower now because more people can receive better treatment?

x2 Even with a mutated strain we would be more likely to find a faster way to treat it as well.

Really?

Kinda like curing AIDS?

:

[skunked_again]

Raul, I understand that developments in transportation would increase the rate at which the flu spread and also the amount of affected people but what about the developments in medicine? Don't we also have better access and better techniques of health care? Wouldn't the mortality rate of 5% be lower now because more people can receive better treatment?

x2 Even with a mutated strain we would be more likely to find a faster way to treat it as well.

Really?

Kinda like curing AIDS?

:

my cure is washing my hands like mad.

[Dan:]

Raul, I understand that developments in transportation would increase the rate at which the flu spread and also the amount of affected people but what about the developments in medicine? Don't we also have better access and better techniques of health care? Wouldn't the mortality rate of 5% be lower now because more people can receive better treatment?

x2 Even with a mutated strain we would be more likely to find a faster way to treat it as well.

Really?

Kinda like curing AIDS?

How is this comparable to AIDS? AIDS is ALWAYS fatal - swine flu (or avian flu or SARS for that matter) have pretty low mortality rates. Most people just get sick for a while then get better. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't most of the deaths associated with the flu attributable to people who have compromised immune systems or due to preventable causes like dehydration? I had always understood these types of diseases as highly infectious but pretty much only deadly to sick people or people who can't get basic health care treatments.

[SirSnookalot]

my cure is washing my hands like mad.

Slightly off topic, but immediately after each fishing outing i wash my hands thoroughly, never know what's lurking on the vegetation these days.  I never snack while fishing but if I were out for a prolonged period I'd carry anti bacterial.

[Fisher of Men]

my cure is washing my hands like mad.

Slightly off topic, but immediately after each fishing outing i wash my hands thoroughly, never know what's lurking on the vegetation these days. I never snack while fishing but if I were out for a prolonged period I'd carry anti bacterial.

I guess it's pointless to ask if you eat any fish you catch?

Back on topic, I thought of the fact that we didn't have anti-biotics until WWII, but then reminded myself that anti-biotics only treat bacterial illnesses.  Just think how many times you've been to the Dr. and they've said, "It's viral. . . there's not anything we can do about it. . . let's just let it run its course. . . get plenty of fluids and rest."

:-/

[SirSnookalot]

I guess it's pointless to ask if you eat any fish you catch?

The answer is NO, with 1 exception dolphin if I catch one.

My dad was in the fish and seafood business, we ate fish only once a week.

[Fisher of Men]

I guess it's pointless to ask if you eat any fish you catch?

The answer is NO, with 1 exception dolphin if I catch one.

My dad was in the fish and seafood business, we ate fish only once a week.

Kind of like the mechanic driving a crappy car!!  I get it.

[grimlin]

I've been washing my hands more and more since this outbreak.That's what the recommend to do.

Good idea,on whoever said don't eat while fishing.If you do bring a small bottle if hand sanitizer.Don't skimp out on a quality one either.Read the back label to decide which one to get.

My girl works in a old retirement home and she does this often.Too many times she's ask to come in early(like this morning) because one of the workers came down with a flu or sickness.Fairly common with working with older people who get sick easily.    

[slomoe]

Wash your hands.

Cough into your upper sleeve, not your hands.

If your sick, stay home.

Try not to touch your eyes, nose, or mouth.

We have two call centers set up now. One for the measles outbreak and now one for the swine flu. Its getting crazy here at work...

[SirSnookalot]

I thought of the fact that we didn't have anti-biotics until WWII, but then reminded myself that anti-biotics only treat bacterial illnesses.  Just think how many times you've been to the Dr. and they've said, "It's viral. . . there's not anything we can do about it. . . let's just let it run its course. . . get plenty of fluids and rest."

FYI, penicillin was discovered before ww2, 1928 to be exact. Relenza and Tamiflu are both anti viral drugs used against swine flu, I have read they must be used with care.

Never hurts to know the facts before posting.

[Raul]

We had antibiotics in the mid 20 's, penecilin and sulphonamides ( which back then were very toxic to the kidneys ), we have more and better antibiotics nowdays, we do have better healthcare however better healthcare is a debatable issue, better healthcare depends on where you are, you are in the American continent, yes better healthcare is available in most countries except the poorest, Europe, yes sir, Asia and Africa ? nah, I don 't think there 's "better" healthcare in most countries, at least not comparable to ours.

Also you gotta see the situation through the historical context, 1918 is only 90 years ago and still looks so far away for most of us, in 1918 we didn 't have our extra fast massive means of transportation, but in 1918 the population of the world was mostly rural, nowdays half of the population of the world live in cities ( crowded ), the healthcare systems can get overwhlemed very fast and it 's like not having them.

On the antuviral drug subject, antivirals are not only expensive, they are hard to manufacture, there are very few truely effective antiviral drugs and those that really work are very specific ( like cicloferon against viruses from the herpes family ). The only true antiviral drugs are hyperinmune serums because they contain the specific antibodies against the disease, where you obtain them ? only from blood from people who have suffered the disease so in order to obtain a cure you gotta have people who already got sick.

There may be vaccines but vaccines need to incubate before they are effective, they have to provoque the inmune system in order for it to create the antibodies and generate inmunity that takes 15 days, how long does it take to travel around the world nowdays ?

Epidemiology is not as easy at it seems, we got everything against ( time, people, resources, environment ) and when it comes to viruses precautionary measures are taken and recomended because our technology is insuficient and hasn 't developed to the point we can deal with anything. A few decades ago the hotshots of the World Health Organization predicted that by the end of the 20th century we were going to be free of most diseases, yeah right  :, the only viral disease ever to be erradicated has been small pox and that didn 't happen until 1979.

Take your sanitary precautions, wash your hands regularily, don 't touch your mouth, eyes and nose unless your hands are recently washed, avoid crowded places, cover your mouth and nose and until the CDC says: ALL CLEAR, then it 's not all clear.

[Fisher of Men]

I thought of the fact that we didn't have anti-biotics until WWII, but then reminded myself that anti-biotics only treat bacterial illnesses. Just think how many times you've been to the Dr. and they've said, "It's viral. . . there's not anything we can do about it. . . let's just let it run its course. . . get plenty of fluids and rest."

FYI, penicillin was discovered before ww2, 1928 to be exact. Relenza and Tamiflu are both anti viral drugs used against swine flu, I have read they must be used with care.

Never hurts to know the facts before posting.

Pardon me. I didn't mean it as a fact, just thinking outloud.

:-X

UPDATE: Here in Texas, the University Interscholastic League (the state office handling school sports) has suspended all interschool competition (mainly baseball/softball play-offs, tennis, track, etc.) until May 11. Our own district has cancelled the elementary school's field trips (I guess within the next two weeks) as well. This is getting crazy!

[fish-fighting-illini]

   I'm glad someone started this thread. AI visited the thread a couple of times before it made me think. My wife works once a week as a clerk at a Pharmacy. In the last 8 months or so she has been getting sick more often than she ever did before. She tries very hard to use bacterial wash after any sick customer. She might even do it after every customer.

 Its amazing how stupid / rude customers can be. They will cough right at her w/o ever so much as turning there head! Not to mention they will cough into their hands then reach in and with the same hand give her money and think nothing of it!

 After thinking about it if this virus hits in or anywhere close to IL she's out of there. It is not worth the risk at all let alone for once per week @ $7/hr.

 This place takes pictures for passports so this could be even more of a double whammy.

FFI - AKA Matt Crum