BassResource.com Administrator Glenn Posted March 12, 2009 BassResource.com Administrator Posted March 12, 2009 Stock market went up 380pts the other day, and now it's up about 200 more points, the third postive day in a row - and finally back up over 7,000! Another bright spot today, buried deep inside the doom and gloom, is from General Motors Corp., which has been borrowing money from the government to stay in business. GM's chief financial officer said the company will not need the $2 billion loan for March it previously requested. There's also a better-than-expected report on retail sales. Sales fell 0.1 percent in February, which was far less than less than the 0.5 percent slide economists had predicted. The government also revised January's performance to show a 1.8 percent increase, the biggest rise in three years and stronger than the 1 percent gain that was originally reported. Where's the post about the good stuff when this happens? Seems the only time you hear something here or on the news these days regarding the stock market is when it plunges - and all the doomsayers jump on board. To be sure, a couple of positive days doesn't equate to a rally nor does it signal a turnaround in the economy....yet. But sheesh, it's refreshing to see something positive when all you hear is doom and gloom these days. Just my .02.
justfishin Posted March 12, 2009 Posted March 12, 2009 I agree. I watched the report the other day on PBS and it started out as a up tempo report until they added some broker analyst to the mix. It was all down hill from there. I think any growth, even short term is a plus. It will be bouncing for a few years but...
Super User Root beer Posted March 12, 2009 Super User Posted March 12, 2009 I was waiting on someone to make this post. I guess we have to many pessimistic folks on here. ;D Recessions are going to make me rich. I cannot wait until I'm out of school and live the life like my idols do. I love reading books on Warren Buffett and John Meriweather. Ok I know some of you on here who may know who John Meriweather is, I know the guy bankrupted a $140 billion dollar hedge fund, but come on you got to admit it the man knew how to run a team.
fathom Posted March 12, 2009 Posted March 12, 2009 to paraphrase william randolph hearst... good news don't sell papers.
atx_newbie Posted March 13, 2009 Posted March 13, 2009 More good news: the housing prices have corrected themselves. 2-3 years ago, the average selling price of an area's home was almost 5x the average income of the area. At most, you want to see something more like 3.5x to be confident that the buyer can afford the home. Average selling prices are now back down to 2.9x the average incomes, right where they should be to indicate that the purchaser can afford the mortgage. Prices should drop a little more, since there is a bit of an oversupply right now, but for the most part the housing issues have bottomed out (at least, as long as no more major bad news comes).
Super User roadwarrior Posted March 13, 2009 Super User Posted March 13, 2009 We had the same run in November, it's called a "Bear Trap". The stock market will be trashed until (1) Housing; (2) Employment; (3) Retail Sales and (4) Consumer Credit stabilize. We have a long way go and all the losses have not been disclosed. Credit cards will be the next shoe to drop. This entire run-up has been in the face of devastating economic releases. The claim is that the "news" is not as bad as expected, but it is still the worst that has EVER been recorded. The probability of the current WORLDWIDE recession becoming a depression have increased dramatically. The banking system may not be "bankrupt", but it is insolvent. The stock market is currently being driven by speculators, not investors. Todays 13% rise in GE stock still leaves "investors" with a loss of 47% on the year, more than 74% off the peak. Hide your money, the worst is yet to come.
Super User SirSnookalot Posted March 13, 2009 Super User Posted March 13, 2009 General Motors Corp., which has been borrowing money from the government to stay in business. GM's chief financial officer said the company will not need the $2 billion loan for March it previously requested. Don't read too much into this, this is from cost cutting measures, not improved sales. I'm excited as everyone else, especially being retired and this is what I live off. But RW is absolutely correct, BEAR MARKET RALLY. The issue of commercial real estate hasn't been addressed too much, which will be a huge issue. Down in Florida vacant store fronts and major companies closing up right and left. Those lessors have mortgages too. I started my business during the 74 recession and the 81-82 recession was terrible. What makes this one extra bad is credit or lack of. During most downturns lines of credit is what keeps companies going and back then I was getting called frequently by the banks.......That is not happening today. My core business was scrap metal, it exactly mirrors the stock market and scrap is cheap and not easily sold today. Like the stock market that business goes into and exits downturns about 6 months ahead of the general economy and I have seen nothing positive yet. The market is a precursor of things to come
bigmountaineer Posted March 16, 2009 Posted March 16, 2009 Consumer credit is what is hurting it right now, plus the fact that no one has a job and can aforrd their own house.
BassResource.com Administrator Glenn Posted March 16, 2009 Author BassResource.com Administrator Posted March 16, 2009 Stocks are up 100+ points right now. 5th straight day of gains - the longest stretch of positive gains in 4 months. To be sure, it's premature to talk about a turn in the economy but the stock market is priced as if the economy isn't ever going to turn around. It appears that investors to beginning to re-evaluate their expectations, based on good news Monday from Britain's Barclays PLC, which also disclosed that it has been performing well in 2009. Last week, both Citigroup and Bank of America Corp., reported improving trends for January and February. Each day that goes by without disappointing news can help further strengthen the market's legs. That said, it would be unreasonable to believe the rally will last longer than a few more days. But it just might be a sign that the market has finally hit bottom.
jimmieO Posted March 16, 2009 Posted March 16, 2009 I definitely don't mean this in a smart #@s way: RW--I saw from the "meet the staff" thing that you are an investment banker..correct??? If you have the time to answer this, I would definitely appreciate hearing your point of view. How do we fix this mess? What are your theories? How do we save our banks? I'm just not buying in to the whole "we're gonna fix our debt problem by creating more debt..." It just doesn't make sense to me.
Super User roadwarrior Posted March 16, 2009 Super User Posted March 16, 2009 Regardless of your politics or vested interest, the best minds in the world are addressing the problem as best they can. There is no easy solution and some things will be tried which will not work. The fundamental problem may be the mortgage market, but the mix was made volatile with "leverage". The investment banks were "using" money 30:1 verses their actual investment. When things are rockin', the leverage results in HUGE returns. As the underlying assets went sour, liquidity evaporated and the cost of carry became unmanageable. The resulting collapse of confidence in the system then magnified the severity of the situation. Direct investment and guarantees of something in excess or 13 trillion dollars have been injected by the United States alone. It may take more. Banking and housing must stabilize to bring about recovery. Perhaps that sounds simple, but it isn't. The next "Big Event" may be credit cards. Unsecured debt without any means of support. The banks can only blame themselves. The worst part is how much we all hate their policies. Unless you pay your bills monthly, interest and penalties can exceed 28%. The banks get no sympathy from me.
atx_newbie Posted March 16, 2009 Posted March 16, 2009 Regardless of your politics or vested interest, the best minds in the world are addressing the problem as best they can. There is no easy solution and some things will be tried which will not work. The fundamental problem may be the mortgage market, but the mix was made volatile with "leverage". The investment banks were "using" money 30:1 verses their actual investment. When things are rockin', the leverage results in HUGE returns. As the underlying assets went sour, liquidity evaporated and the cost of carry became unmanageable. The resulting collapse of confidence in the system then magnified the severity of the situation. Direct investment and guarantees of something in excess or 13 trillion dollars have been injected by the United States alone. It may take more. Banking and housing must stabilize to bring about recovery. Perhaps that sounds simple, but it isn't. The next "Big Event" may be credit cards. Unsecured debt without any means of support. The banks can only blame themselves. The worst part is how much we all hate their policies. Unless you pay your bills monthly, interest and penalties can exceed 28%. The banks get no sympathy from me. I remember reading that due to leveraged investments, there was something like $400 trillion in investments based on mortgage bundles that may or may not be worth a dime. I may be off on the exact number, but it was staggeringly high. I remember thinking to myself: "That is more money than actually exists in the world." Once I read that, I decided to bow out from political debates (probably my favorite hobby) about fixing the economy. It's the first time in my life where I realized I was completely ignorant of the situation and it was beyond my capacity to understand it.
Super User CWB Posted March 16, 2009 Super User Posted March 16, 2009 D**n- I was ready to get back in the market but who do you listen to. I lost 1/3 of my 401K before putting it in bonds at 2%. Ain't gonna be able to retire on that. I'm still afraid this is just feel good reaction to some good news which by the way is not suppressed, it's just been few and far between. Pres seems to talking more positive these days now that all his bills have past. Maybe if he was more positive from the beginning... People need to hear the good news as well as the bad, even more so as that is what will invoke confidence and spending and investing again. Take me. I just spent $300.00 at BPS on stuff I don't need. What recession?
Super User Hookemdown. Posted March 17, 2009 Super User Posted March 17, 2009 I'll start talking about recovery when the DOW gets above 10k
CGH Posted March 17, 2009 Posted March 17, 2009 I'll start talking about recovery when my company stock goes back to where it was in September $40.65 a share, right now it's $2.18 a share
Super User Grey Wolf Posted March 17, 2009 Super User Posted March 17, 2009 R.W. makes the most sense in this thread . I suggest you listen to what he has to say.
BassResource.com Administrator Glenn Posted March 17, 2009 Author BassResource.com Administrator Posted March 17, 2009 Market finished up 179 points today.
BassResource.com Administrator Glenn Posted March 18, 2009 Author BassResource.com Administrator Posted March 18, 2009 Just want to clarify the only reason I started this thread is because I'm tired of the news reporting only when the stock market falls, and neglects to cover the upswings with equal vim and vigor. In no way whatsoever did I, or do I, intend this thread to turn into a discussion about government policies or the economy in general. I'm just sick and tired of seeing all the negative prophecies about an apocalyptic collapse of the world every day on the news. I just wanted to interject some positive news to offset some of the negativity we see every day. Apologies to anyone who feels, or thinks, or interprets my actions as a "double standard" when it comes to the editing or closing of similar threads that discuss the government's involvement with the economy. I suppose with all the negativity these days, assumptions like that are to be expected.
Siebert Outdoors Posted March 18, 2009 Posted March 18, 2009 or the economy in general. I'm just sick and tired of seeing all the negative prophecies about an apocalyptic collapse of the world every day on the news. I just wanted to interject some positive news to offset some of the negativity we see every day. Glenn, honestly I like seeing topics like this on current events. I wish we had more of them. I understand the no politics/religion. Very intese topics. They need to be avoided and yes sometimes its me that starts the problem. I have learned alot on current event topis like ones on stocks or oil. Not only have I learned alot its one of the reasons I frequently view the board. I know this is a Bass forum but I have no issue with current events and honestly enjoy reading them. So Thank you for giving me the oppertunity to and to learn from them.
Super User flechero Posted March 18, 2009 Super User Posted March 18, 2009 Just want to clarify the only reason I started this thread is because I'm tired of the news reporting only when the stock market falls, and neglects to cover the upswings with equal vim and vigor. In no way whatsoever did I, or do I, intend this thread to turn into a discussion about government policies or the economy in general. I'm just sick and tired of seeing all the negative prophecies about an apocalyptic collapse of the world every day on the news. I just wanted to interject some positive news to offset some of the negativity we see every day. Apologies to anyone who feels, or thinks, or interprets my actions as a "double standard" when it comes to the editing or closing of similar threads that discuss the government's involvement with the economy. I suppose with all the negativity these days, assumptions like that are to be expected. This dude should re-read the FAQ's. ;D Been called the goose lately? ;D
BassResource.com Administrator Glenn Posted March 18, 2009 Author BassResource.com Administrator Posted March 18, 2009 It seems as though my explanation wasn't enough for a few folks (not directing this at you Keith. I've had a few pointed PMs as well). So in the spirit of fairness, I'm closing my own thread.
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