Super User roadwarrior Posted January 23, 2009 Super User Posted January 23, 2009 We may test October lows as early as today. There is no bottom in sight. The optimists say 7000 for the DJIA, the bears are talking about 6000. The truth is, nobody knows. http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/global-markets-spook-investors-futures-plunge/ Quote
Eddie Munster Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 This mess is worse than any one could have imagined. We had some of the banks that we're now bailing out actually investing in oil and sitting on it to drive the price up. That combined with offering risky loans they were offering should get someone FIRED. Why bailout a company AND keep the some morons in charge?!! Quote
foul hooked Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 People like to blame Big Oil for everything, but Wall Street especially the big Investment Banks caused this. Subprime pigs. They have no souls. Quote
jimmieO Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 Banks have been irresponsible, people have been irresponsible, now we are paying for it. We will recover, but things are going to suck for a while. Hopefully we will learn our lesson. Status symbols have become to important to us. Quote
rondef Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 There is still one more type of creative mortgage that resets in the beginning of 2010. These were the mortgages that you could pick your payment and if you didn't pay enough of the interest off each year they tacked the remaining interest on to the end of the loan. Talk about a stupid mortgage, the bank officers should be charged and convicted for theft and fraud. They were only concerned about getting the comission check when they suckered the buyers in to these foolish loans. Quote
jimmieO Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 There is still one more type of creative mortgage that resets in the beginning of 2010. These were the mortgages that you could pick your payment and if you didn't pay enough of the interest off each year they tacked the remaining interest on to the end of the loan. Talk about a stupid mortgage, the bank officers should be charged and convicted for theft and fraud. They were only concerned about getting the comission check when they suckered the buyers in to these foolish loans. I agree. Banks have been irresponsible, but we live in a capitalistic society in which the sky is the limit. People have got to be smarter about the choices they make. Buying a house shifted to be more like buying a car. I would be willing to bet you that I can go out and buy a 35K truck today when I dadgum sure can't afford it. I strongly believe in letting markets regulate themselves, but when you give that kind of power to people they start seeing dollar signs and bigger houses and 21 footers with 250HPDI's and just screw it up from every angle--providers, retailers, lenders AND consumers. Quote
Eddie Munster Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 A guy I work with has refinanced several times in the past 7 years and has taken 'equity' out of the house while staying with adjustable rate mortgages. After the first couple times, he would say 'my house is worth ____ much!'. I asked him 'so you're relying on the people lending you money to tell you what your house is worth?' Well, he missed my point and got another ARM. He's now got about 2 months to refinance into a fixed (for his sake) but he's now $30,000.00 in the hole with neither a pot nor a window. Here's the kicker: he blames Delta Airline people that lost their jobs for selling their homes too cheap, driving the prices down in his area. Quote
Super User roadwarrior Posted January 23, 2009 Author Super User Posted January 23, 2009 Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks will retreat around the world because of shrinking demand from China as growth in the third- biggest economy slows, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted last year's financial crisis. Global equities will fall 20 percent from current levels as China, which contributed 19.5 percent to total growth in 2007, contends with its slowest expansion in seven years, he said. Wall Street strategists predict the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will rise 29 percent this year from the closing level yesterday. Roubini, an economics professor at NYU's Stern School of Business, said China already is in a recession despite government data showing a 6.8 percent fourth-quarter growth rate, as power output drops and manufacturing shrinks. Demand is falling in China, they're over-invested in capacity and there's a global supply glut, Roubini, 50, said in a telephone interview. It has very, very important implications. Roubini's view is shared by Societe Generale SA global strategist Albert Edwards, who was correct in forecasting in March 2007 that a U.S. contraction would spur a bear market in equities. Edwards says the China slowdown will reduce earnings at industrial, energy and raw-materials companies, worsening a selloff in emerging and developed-market stocks that may send the S&P 500 down 40 percent to 500. Emperor's Clothes People should be thinking really hard about this rather than sticking their heads in the sand, said Edwards, a London- based strategist and member of the top-ranked global investment strategy team in Thomson Extel's surveys the past three years. We're just pointing out when the emperor doesn't have any clothes on. The consensus among eight strategists surveyed by Bloomberg this week is for the index to end the year at 1,066. The S&P 500 fell 1.5 percent yesterday to 827.50, and futures on the index dropped 2.2 percent as of 4:32 a.m. in New York. Data at China's National Bureau of Statistics is gathered in a scientific and realistic method, Ma Jiantang, the agency's director, said at a briefing in Beijing yesterday in response to a question about the accuracy of government figures. Zhang Yingxiang, a spokeswoman for the statistics bureau, declined further comment when contacted by phone today. China Stocks Fall China's economy grew 9 percent for all of 2008 after a 13 percent expansion in the previous year, the fastest in the world. China's CSI 300 Index fell 0.6 percent at the close in Shanghai, the biggest drop in eight days. Commodity producers led declines after Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. and Yunnan Copper Industry Co. reported lower profit. Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund all predict China will grow at least 7 percent this year, while investors Jim Rogers and Mark Mobius are buying Chinese shares on expectations the government will bolster economic growth with interest-rate cuts and fiscal stimulus. The IMF said China's contribution to global growth increased to 19.5 percent in 2007 from 17.2 percent in the previous year. China, which has $1.9 trillion set aside in the world's largest reserves, plans to spend at least 4 trillion yuan on bridges, housing and tax breaks to boost the economy. Chinese President Hu Jintao has pledged further measures to maintain stable growth in the face of serious challenges and difficulties. China Recession? Rogers, who predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, recommends investors buy China's agriculture, water treatment, power generation and infrastructure stocks because the companies won't be hurt by the nation's slowing economy. China could be in recession, I have no idea and it's not relevant to me because I'm using my judgment as to what will happen six months from now, said Rogers, who authored books on investing including A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market. There is a lot happening in China and there will be those that will hold up well. China's economy will grow 6.3 percent this quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg after yesterday's GDP report. China's electricity output declined 7.8 percent in November from a year earlier and fell 3 percent in October, the first declines since February 2002, according to China Economic Information Net data compiled by Bloomberg. Manufacturing shrank for a third month as the deepening global recession cut demand for the nation's toys, clothes and electronics. Manipulating' the Yuan Edwards said rising unemployment among factory workers will fuel social unrest, threatening the Communist Party's survival and increasing the risk authorities will devalue the yuan to boost exports. The yuan appreciated about 19 percent against the dollar between 2005 and July 2008 as China redressed what U.S. officials saw as an unfair price advantage for exports. The yuan has since stabilized at about 6.85 per dollar. Timothy Geithner, President Barack Obama's nominee for Treasury secretary, said yesterday that China is manipulating its currency. The yuan fell the most in a month today as the nation's banks refuted the new U.S. administration's accusation. If you amble your way through the analysis, you realize if push comes to shove they will devalue the yuan, Edwards said. That may spur lawmakers in the U.S. and China to increase trade barriers, he said. Quote
Super User Root beer Posted January 23, 2009 Super User Posted January 23, 2009 We had some of the banks that we're now bailing out actually investing in oil and sitting on it to drive the price up. Where did that information come from? I thought banks were not going to release where the TARP fund is going? If you really want bankrupt the bank just withdraw all your deposit. ;D Quote
Fisher of Men Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 We had some of the banks that we're now bailing out actually investing in oil and sitting on it to drive the price up. If you really want bankrupt the bank just withdraw all your deposit. ;D Mine is withdrawn monthly. Believe me, they're not earning anything off of me! :'( Quote
Super User roadwarrior Posted January 23, 2009 Author Super User Posted January 23, 2009 We had some of the banks that we're now bailing out actually investing in oil and sitting on it to drive the price up. Where did that information come from? I thought banks were not going to release where the TARP fund is going? If you really want bankrupt the bank just withdraw all your deposit. ;D This was reported last week. I don't recall whether it was Morgan Stanley or JP Morgan, but they are renting a tanker and buying a full load of oil to hold for speculation. Your TARP funds at work! 8-) Quote
jimmieO Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 Mine is withdrawn monthly. Believe me, they're not earning anything off of me! :'( Quote
tyrius. Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 This was repoted last week. I don't recall whether it was Morgan Stanley or JP Morgan, but they are renting a tanker and buying a full load of oil to hold for speculation. If you can find a place to store the oil then it's easy money. You can buy oil at the current spot rate for cheaper than you can sell it for future months delivery. The price difference is currently enough that one can make a good return on this. As an example. Let's say one bought a barrel of oil for delivery in March at say $39. They can then sell that oil for April delivery for $48 a barrel. The cost to store it is between $1-2 a barrel. So you've got $7-8 profit or about a 20% return with zero risk. I can't say that I have a problem with this. I'd rather have them spend my TARP money in this way then to start loaning money to unqualified borrowers again. Quote
Super User Root beer Posted January 23, 2009 Super User Posted January 23, 2009 RW...You got a link? Quote
Super User roadwarrior Posted January 23, 2009 Author Super User Posted January 23, 2009 Here ya go: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/energy-resources/Morgan+Stanley+seeks+storage/1183861/story.html Quote
tyrius. Posted January 23, 2009 Posted January 23, 2009 We may test October lows as early as today. There is no bottom in sight. The optimists say 7000 for the DJIA, the bears are talking about 6000. The truth is, nobody knows. Or not. Market closed flat today. I'm in no mood to try and make any sense out of this market. Volatility and uncertainty are the name of the game. Quote
Super User Root beer Posted January 23, 2009 Super User Posted January 23, 2009 So, a Canadian news source claimed Morgan Stanley is SEEKING to buy a tanker. Also it talking about a spokesperson in London. Is it perhaps there a broker in London who doesn't have access to the TARP fund buying the tankers? I do the same thing, but I mean these guys are investment bankers it what they do. The government should have known that the moment they decided to give them a loan. Quote
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