For the Record

[wagn]

I think RW is right about oil going back down but might be wrong about the time frame. There is a statistic out there that tracks the oil prices compared to the cash flow of the investment market. Simply put the prices on oil tend not to decline until the excess cash withdrawn from the stock and bond market has been reinvested. If this tracking holds true then it oil will come down to a median price only after the market has balanced itself will we see the oil stabilize at a lower price. I think it's going to be about 4 months after RW says that we will see a large reduction in the price of oil

[burleytog]

Worldwide demand will not decrease.

Probably not.

The dollar will not get stronger.

Why wouldn't it?

Why WOULD it?

No additional refining capacity will be added in the US.

And why does this matter?

Additional refining capacity in the US would increase supply.  As it is now, supply is limited due to a lack of refining capacity and there are no new refineries on the horizon thanks to the environuts and NIMBY's.

Plus it makes no sense for the oil companies to invest in new refineries.

[tyrius.]

Why WOULD it?

Because it has every other time that it has decreased in value (during recessionary times).  When the economy recovers the dollar will also recover.

Additional refining capacity in the US would increase supply. As it is now, supply is limited due to a lack of refining capacity and there are no new refineries on the horizon thanks to the environuts and NIMBY's.

Supply of gasoline isn't the problem.  The cost of a barrel of oil is the problem.  If we had 100 more refineries here in the states that wouldn't affect the price of oil by 1%.  Without a significant reduction in the price of oil the price of gasoline will remain high.  Refinery capacity has nothing to do with the current gas prices.

[tyrius.]

We need to drill here. In Alaska alone we have over 250 years worth of oil!

Drilling here will not satisfy short term demand.  If we decided today to drill for the oil left in Alaska it would be years before any appreciable supply would make it to our markets.

And that is ASSUMING that the 250 year claim is correct.  That one sounds a little wild to me.  Brazil just discovered a huge field that once they fully tap in about a decade will put them in the top ten oil producers in the world.

[KYbass1276]

and oh yea. i dont think this thread will last much longer

Really this thread was more less meant for me to go on the record and others too as to what they think gas prices will be at or around Nov 08.   Not really what the problem is, was or going to be.   But thats cool too alot of interesting point of veiws.

[FishTank]

If gas stays this high, the only thing this country will be able to produce is debt.    

[Dan:]

I'm not sure how much stock I put into the estimates of reserves available for drilling, they are almost always lower than the actual amount

[Low_Budget_Hooker]

It could be worse,....we could be in England    :

Anyone see what they are paying with the work stoppage??  Getting my haircut yesterday, it was on the news,....$11 and change per gallon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KYbass1276]

If gas stays this high, the only thing this country will be able to produce is debt.

 

Actually IMO thats one of the contributing factors as to why are economy isn't doing very well right now.   Our country is in debt up to there eyeballs.    Not trying to be a smart elic but do some research and you will see how bad our countrys debt problem is.

[Troutfisher]

We need to drill here. In Alaska alone we have over 250 years worth of oil!

Drilling here will not satisfy short term demand. If we decided today to drill for the oil left in Alaska it would be years before any appreciable supply would make it to our markets.

And that is ASSUMING that the 250 year claim is correct. That one sounds a little wild to me. Brazil just discovered a huge field that once they fully tap in about a decade will put them in the top ten oil producers in the world.

http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntn60288.htm

"What is reasonable to say is that (the Alaska refuge) could represent between 5 and 10 % of our national production for a period of 20 to 30 years," says Houseknecht, the government geologist. Domestic oil production averaged 8.6 mm bpd in 2004.

And, the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.news.cornell.edu/Chronicle/03/4.3.03/ACS-Cathles.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14678206/

[tyrius.]

http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/ntn60288.htm

"What is reasonable to say is that (the Alaska refuge) could represent between 5 and 10 % of our national production for a period of 20 to 30 years," says Houseknecht, the government geologist. Domestic oil production averaged 8.6 mm bpd in 2004.

And, the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.news.cornell.edu/Chronicle/03/4.3.03/ACS-Cathles.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14678206/

I'm not disputing your claim that there is a lot of oil there.  My point is that it will take 7-10 years from decision to drill to actual substantial oil flowing from the field.  Thus, drilling in ANWR will not rectify any short term supply problems.

[Troutfisher]

Agreed, there are many restrictions and regulations and hoops to jump through as it is.

[BadKarma42]

I could be completely off here, but doesn't the price of oil per barrell fall under "futures," like pork futures?

I think the reality is that gas will come back down some at some time, but I don't expect it to go back down to under $2.50.  Why?  Becasue we are paying for it right now.

I think there a lot of factors in the works here and none of them benefit us:  OPEC setting the cost (I could be wrong, but I think they see that they have us over the barrell), China buying up energy and our debts, Oil companies making a lot of money, and as I said before we are paying the price for fuel now.

[Matt Fly]

Our countries debt has politics written all over it.

Gas before the election?   I would hope they lower it so people will have gas to vote.

But also, gas has risen in that time frame in the past on its own.

Thats normally when the summer grade is no longer being distilled/refined and the winter grades are being produced.

[roadwarrior]

I'm not sure how much stock I put into the estimates of reserves available for drilling, they are almost always lower than the actual amount

Actually, they are always higher. A decade or more ago, Saudi Arabia grudgingly revised "recoverable reserves" by 50%. The economics of deep drilling changes dramatically with oil over $100 per barrel. If the newly discover field in the northern plains proves real, 35 billion barrels levels the playing field.

Oil shale is another option that EXXON abandoned in Colorado in the 80's. It seems this should come back into play. Regarding "alternative fuels", if someone can figure out ways to use coal more effeciently, with less polluting effects, we will never run out of energy!

[Zel]

Regarding "alternative fuels", if someone can figure out ways to use coal more effeciently, with less polluting effects, we will never run out of energy!

If only it were so easy, but preconceived notions and politics trump already sound alternate methods to the dependence on foreign oil.  Clean and efficient methods to convert waste coal into diesel fuel, and other substances that can be used for energy, already exist, but coal has become a dirty word.  Several years ago here in Pennsylvania, home to some of the largest coal reserves, there was a battle for U.S. Senator.  Here is an interesting read from their stances on the subject at the time.  Guess who we picked for Senator Bob Casey Jr.

http://www.thetimes-tribune.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17018421&BRD=2185&PAG=461&dept_id=579721&rfi=6

[KYbass1276]

For the Record I predict that by Nov 08 we will see fuel prices around $4.50 to $4.80 a gal for unleaded and diesal hovering really close to $5.00 a gal. Basically just wanted to put it down somewhere so I could say I said it back in the spring.

Looks like I might be a little off with my prediction.   Kinda looking like it's just around the corner.   We will see, I was hoping my prediction wouldn't happen but looks like it will

[fishfordollars]

$2.49 for unleaded regular

8-)

That's a bargain! :

That is exactly what the oil companies want you to think. 2.49 is not a bargain. They are just conditioning us for a larger hike later on.

[FishingBuds]

Its gonna reach $6.00 a gallon and then go back down, wait and see

Fuel company will shut this down too

[Live.2.Fish]

For the Record I predict that by Nov 08 we will see fuel prices around $4.50 to $4.80 a gal for unleaded and diesal hovering really close to $5.00 a gal. Basically just wanted to put it down somewhere so I could say I said it back in the spring.

Looks like I might be a little off with my prediction. Kinda looking like it's just around the corner. We will see, I was hoping my prediction wouldn't happen but looks like it will

I think that gas will hit your prediction by the 4th of July. :'(

I just really don't see an end in sight. There is nothing that is going to stop gas from climbing to a new record high everyday.

[KYbass1276]

Fuel company will shut this down too

That would be sweet, It just goes to show there are other alternitatives out there we just need to be looking and developing.