OFFICIAL BCS BREAKDOWN

[Catt]

LSU safely at #1

We need a foamed-finger emoticoncause we're #1! BCS STANDINGS After Illinois' big upset, it is no big surprise that LSU edged out Oregon in all the human polls and easily in the BCS standings. I was surprised to see the cushion LSU has over Oregon in the polls. It is still an interesting question of whether an undefeated Kansas passes LSU for #1 in the BCS if they beat 1-loss Mizzou and 1-loss OU. I think they do, but not sure considering LSU holds over 50% of the 1st place votes. I am curious when and if it happens if LSU blows out its remaining opponents. It is very, very unlikely Oregon can do anything to catch LSU at this point. Almost impossible. Oregon doesn't have any statement games left to make a case for passing LSU in the human pollsand even if they did, LSU's computer ranking is just too strong (and should only get better). LSU is ahead of Oregon in all 6 of the 6 computer polls Computer polls, and since your best and worst scores are dropped as outliers LSU is a more than a full spot of Oregon in the computers. Some quick math: since the human polls count twice as much as the computers, in a head-to-head matchup, Oregon would have to be more than ½ a spot ahead in the Coaches and Harris. That means they would need more than ¾ of the voters to give Oregon the nod (compared to ¼ for LSU) and that seems illogical given that LSU currently leads Oregon by a huge margin with the SECCG game left.

Computer Polls

So why is LSU so far ahead in the computers? It is actually quite simple. Schedule Strength basically differentiates between teams of like records. Sure there are an infinite number of ways to measure SOS, but no matter how you do it LSU probably comes out on top. Oregon's schedule is actually quite good (tough PAC 10 and Michigan OOC victory). But looking closer, (1) the SEC is better they are an absurd 37-5 in OOC games. Let me repeat, 37-5! (2) LSU has a very impressive OOC victory in Va Tech (hope they keep winning), and (3) the SECCG is the absolute deal breaker. If LSU beats 10-2 UGA, it is not even close (9-3 Tenn would be good but not quite as strong).

I wouldn't bet my life yet on LSU making the BCS NC game though. If Kansas wins out, they are in. If LSU struggled against Ole Miss and/or Arky I suppose Oregon could jump LSU in the human polls (still doubtful). They would then need to close the gap somehow in LSU's 6/6 advantage in the computers. Rick Tellshow actually has projected Oregon could pass LSU in some computers (although I really don't know how). They would need that to make the computers a wash. Most of the following would probably need to happen (and even then I doubt Oregon could ever catch LSU):

(1) The SEC gets shutout (or goes 1-3 with Vandy being the lone win) in the 4 OOC games between the SEC and ACC coming up. Its tough to tell how much that would hurt, but it would be a significant shot to the SEC's (and therefore LSU's) computer strength

(2) LSU plays a 9-3 team (e.g. Tenn) in the SECCG instead of 10-2 UGA

(3) Michigan beats Ohio State, improving Oregon's schedule strength

(4) Kentucky falters (Sagarin seems to really care about how bad your loss is)

The only other concern would be if voters used Kansas as wedge between #1 Oregon and #3 LSU on their ballots. The three-way race could hurt us and we don't want to be the Buddy Roemer of the BCS. But in the end, LSU should be more than fine. I actually think Oregon has a lot to be worried about, because Kansas would pass them and I really think Oklahoma might also if they beat undefeated Kansas in the Big12 CG. I like to use the analogy of this being like a political primaryif Kansas loses, then OU likely snatches up all of their 1st and 2nd place votes in the runoff and is suddenly a real threat to take Oregon over in the BCS. Oregon vs. Oklahoma would be interesting to watch.

A note about the AP poll

There are a lot of comparisons of this year to 2003 and a lot of rumblings about Oregon getting the AP title. At this time, there is no reason to believe that. People forget that USC was fortuitous to be higher than LSU preseason and then lose first. That put them ahead in the pecking order and they kept winning so they stayed above LSU in the polls. The AP poll was actually kinder to LSU than the Coaches poll, but the AP voters refused to DROP a team after beating Michigan by 14 in the Rose Bowl. Its true that LSU lost a few (4) votes in the AP, but most voters just kept LSU in the same place. Many felt it a tragedy that the #1 team in BOTH polls was left out for a team that got pasted in the Big 12 CG. This year would be entirely different. First of all, Oregon wouldn't likely be #1 in the AP at the end of the regular season (LSU has a big lead) and if they were it would be by a very small margin. Second, LSU would probably get most or all of OU/Kansas' #1 votes after beating them, and third, while many voters may think Oregon is the best team, I don't think anyone would consider it a travesty that LSU and the Big 12 Champ went instead of Oregon (unlike 2003).

[Matt Fly]

Tommy,

 OU was upset in the Big XII title game by KSU.   But the BCS still rewarded the Sooners the Title game against your beloved Tigers.    And it was a embarrassing day for the Sooners and Big XII.    Thus the convincing win by the Trojans and the AP National Title.

Good thought process on the multiple scenerios.      You don't see maybe OSU beats OU, Mizzou beats Kansas, and maybe WVU moving up?

Matt.

[Troutfisher]

Not meaning to hijack the thread...

Really, I don't know if they will be able to move up more or not.  A lot of things would have to happen.  If they can get a BCS bowl, I will be satisfied.

[KU_Bassmaster.]

That was a lot Catt!!!

IMO I think the NC is going to be LSU (if they win out) or Oregon (if LSU falls) vs The winner of the Big XII Championship (KU, OU or MU)

No numbers behind it.  Just what I think it should look like.  What do you think?

[Catt]

The BCS standings formula consists three components, each weighted equally: the USA Today Coaches Poll, the Harris Interactive College Football Poll and an average of six computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin and Peter Wolfe).

The BCS operates with several contracts in play:

1. The BCS agreement with 11 conferences, Notre Dame and three bowl games,

2. A contract between the Big Ten, Pac-10, the Rose Bowl;

3. A Rose Bowl-ABC contract

4. A contract between the BCS conferences and Notre Dame with Fox Sports.

The AP poll has no bearing on the BCS that's why USC never split the championship with LSU because USC is under contract with the BCS stating the BCS is the only recognized championship.

For West Virginia to be in the 5 teams above them would all have to loss  

[RiskKid.]

I think the SECCG could be LSU's biggest problem. They should easily beat my beloved Vols or the Dawgs but both these teams have to beat Kentucky which will be tough for both squads and TN has to get past a much improved Vandy team to get there. Florida is not out of it yet.....should the SECCG be Florida vs LSU watch out.....it'll be a game for the ages.....AND as much as I hate to say it Florida is without a doubt the best team in the East and IMHO should be in that game.

That having been said if the Vols beat Vandy and KY we're there. I've got my tickets reserved should we get there......HEY CATT....remember how LSU ruined us in the 2001 SECCG....WATCH OUT  

[Hookemdown.]

Official and unbiased

Nice examination Catt

Do you think OU has a chance to make the NT game if they win out...Wait, why am I asking an LSU fan... ;D

[tipptruck1]

That was more confuesing then algbra. I think iam the only guy that dosn't pay attion to the polls. The reason My badgers were like 5th in the nation. Then we lost and we droped like a rock. There were teams with two loses before us in the polls. But ohio state loses and they drop but not to like 20. So to me its all some thing that dosn't make any sense to me.