Is recession coming?

[Root beer]

I feel like talking about the economy. I was reading this http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071109/wall_street.html.

There was another survey saying many americans fear that recession is coming. Anyone agree or disagree?

I've never seen the stock market down like this before ever. But again I've never paid attention to the stock market until recently when I relize how fun it is to discuss economic and finance.

I'm go to college and to get a CPA license or a degree in Finance, so every once in while I like read about the economy.

[michbass]

Do you mean the stock market up? It is above 13000 which was a record set this year I believe.  I know people fear a crash when it stays this high. Even with todays slide in the Financial stock sector the market is much stronger than it has been is history. Doesn't mean it couldn't drop though.

[scbassin]

It could happen. Between the Gas prices & the trouble in the housing industry people are starting to slow down their spending. If the retail industry takes a hit it is likely to happen. That is my take.

[Catt]

Housing industry is not in a slump, pre-existing house sales are down but new house sales are still though the roof. Yes the stock market may have ended down today but only after months of record highs. Gas prices are man made; you gas prices to go down then quit buying foreign and drill domestic.

[burleytog]

The housing market is in a slump. And once all the subprime loans start reverting to ARM's, there is going to be a load of bankruptcy.

[Catt]

Excuse me but the house market is not in a slump I have at least a dozen friends, who are contractors through out the south and they are selling the houses as soon as the slabs are formed up. What are in a slump are pre- pre-existing house sales.

What you need to consider is the slump is based on tremendous highs so is this really a slump?

You must also consider part of those highs were because of rebuilding after hurricanes Katrina and Rita, these were houses that should not have been in the equation but were. Now that this rebuilding effort comes to competition it is natural that there will appear to be a slump.

It's all based on speculation like oil prices, that's part of how they control prices  

[Micro]

Is recession coming?

No.  It's not even predicted.  The Fed has predicted "a slow down in economic growth," not a reversal of economic growth.  Until there is a reversal, there is no recession.  

US economic growth has been extremely brisk for the last few years.  Unsustainably so.  It has to slow down sooner or later.  The predictions are for "moderate" growth next year.    There are a lot of industrialized nations that would kill for "moderate growth."  

[Guest muddy]

On the advice of a much wiser friend I am withdrawing from this, I did my research, got my A and it was reviewed by my economics professor, thats good enough for me. I have been doing better here by staying out of these forays so I bow out. Doin sometyhing different this time, and stickin to it, will get me a different result. WHERES MY REEL, it needs cleaning :

[Micro]

The housing market is in a slump. And once all the subprime loans start reverting to ARM's, there is going to be a load of bankruptcy.

And it's going to stay in a slump, at least for awhile, unless the Fed cuts the interest rate. But if the Fed cuts the interest rate, we're looking at increased inflation. Looks like there is no choice that will fix everything. My choice would be to leave the interest rate where it is and control inflation ahead of the holiday season.

[burleytog]

Is recession coming?

No. It's not even predicted. The Fed has predicted "a slow down in economic growth," not a reversal of economic growth. Until there is a reversal, there is no recession.

US economic growth has been extremely brisk for the last few years. Unsustainably so. It has to slow down sooner or later. The predictions are for "moderate" growth next year. There are a lot of industrialized nations that would kill for "moderate growth."

I doubt the Fed would want to be the one who started the sheep stampede.  Better to let everyone think it is business as usual until the rugs are pulled.

[fisherdave]

On a reply to CATT it doesnt matter how many houses they sell if everyone of them are forclosed on then they were only taken out of the contractors hands this just means that people are spending way more than they can afford I am pritty sure that puts you in a houseing slump. the foreclosure rate is astrinomical right know all over.

[Guest avid]

A recession is coming - there is no doubt about it.

How soon it comes is anybody's guess, but recession is part of the business cycle.

It is not necessarily all bad.

Weak, and poorly managed companies will fail.

Inappropriate loans will default causing lenders to better qualify potential borrowers.

Speculators will get burned.

As the dollar weakens our exports become more attractive, thus spurring manufacturing.

tourism will increase as foreign visitors will have their money purchase more in America.......and so on.

Yes, a recession is coming.

And so is prosperity.

Avid has spoken  

[Micro]

The upside to recession is that is is generally a cure to the bad practices that brought it on.  Banks with poor lending standards and borrowers lacking dscipline are being taught a lesson.  The slump in housing starts means that, for the time being, new residential development will slow down (a good thing in my neck of the woods).  Those of us who have chosen to live well within our means will withstand it all.

[Maxximus Redneckus]

Glad it wont effect me  "i have done so much with so little, I can do almost anything with nothing"

[grimlin]

Michigan scares me with their unemployment rates....we are the worst state right now with the lost of jobs.

To be honest,i fear for mine everytime i go to work.

[mattm]

Catt,

I sale new home for a living, and it is in a  slump.  Now like you said the previous 5 years have been all time record highs so you have to qualify slump.  It is impossible to have pre-existing home sales in a slump and not effect new homes.  If existing homes are taking longer to sale than more people have to wait longer to buy new homes. Equaling fewer buyers. Also if existing homes are slumping that causes the housing market to become flooded with inventory giving buyers more choices and equaling less new homes sold.  Supply and demand.  I don't  doubt that you have friends that are doing well right now, but they are obviously smart business men that have choosen areas to build in wisely.

[fisherdave]

Right now where I am from you cant find a house under a hundred thow. The average house right know is around one fifty and there going all the way to close to a mill. I dont know if any of yall have ever been to West Texas but its not the place you would want to spend that kind of money on a house or atleast not me. Lots of money to be made just not many ways to enjoy it. I am glad I got my house before the oil industry started up I just wished I could find a good plce to move.

[mattm]

Yes......West Texas(like much of Texas) is the exception to the rule right now. Anytime oil and gas is so high West Texas housing will be booming. I've had customers recently sale their home there in as few as two days. BTW.....which West Texas town are you from?

[michbass]

Michigan scares me with their unemployment rates....we are the worst state right now with the lost of jobs.

To be honest,i fear for mine everytime i go to work.

You can say that again. Everyone is moving out a record pace also.

[BassChaser57]

If you watch International (foreign) news programs you will hear the anchors talk about the U.S. recession and it could possibly infect Europe. There is no doubt a recession is unavoidable with sub-prime loans, $100/barrel for oil, the import/export imbalance, the loss of manufacturing, turning into a service economy, if you want to hear more let me know.

8-)

[Guest muddy]

Glad it wont effect me "i have done so much with so little, I can do almost anything with nothing"

Funny quote from a man who stated not too long ago he has 4,000 Bucks worth of fishing tackle and then he listed it in another post piece by piece

[Maxximus Redneckus]

Glad it wont effect me "i have done so much with so little, I can do almost anything with nothing"

Funny quote from a man who stated not too long ago he has 4,000 Bucks worth of fishing tackle and then he listed it in another post piece by piece

Ya thats over a 15 yr period most guys on here spend that in a year .I call it stockin up .im a sucker for stuff on clearance also if it catches my eye .All i have bought in teh last 6 months brand new for reg price is  certian lures and revo stx,s and sx,s evrythjing else i have bought prob at 50% to 60% marked down.Im may be cheap but i still buy a lot of stuff LMAO

[Guest muddy]

I am glad you realized I  was just bustin em CRN!!!! ;D

[Maxximus Redneckus]

I am glad you realized I was just bustin em CRN!!!! ;D

Yessir i do  8-)

[Guest muddy]

I am glad you realized I was just bustin em CRN!!!! ;D

Yessir i do 8-)

BTW  Thats how I buy, I wait for deep discounts > This is especially true with BPS and Cableas branded names. You learn after buying something when you first see it, then a couple of months later they are selling them at 1/2 price!!!!!!! It is inceredible how much money you can save buying stuff from our flea market, or just sittin and waitin>>>>>>>>Kind of like fishin with nightcrawlers ;D