The Great Experiment Has Begun

[DogBone_384]

On 1/30/2025 at 12:06 PM, Tennessee Boy said:

It's winter in Texas so FFS will play a huge factor.

 

What's winter in Texas?  I've been to Dallas, El Paso, and San Antonio ... 

 

It's a balmy 25* right now and all the fresh water around me has at least 6" of ice on it.  I'm in Southern New England on the ocean.

[Pumpkin Lizard]

1 hour ago, A-Jay said:

Scoretracker is ahead of the live feed.

So it's already over. 

Justin Cooper was able to hold off the charge of the sticks chasing him

and hang on for the win.

Congrats to him on his first win.

That was decent.

A-Jay

 

It was more than decent. I guess a plus of MLF's format is that every now and then it can produce a real time nail biter on the water versus a suspense at a weigh in.

[Team9nine]

On 1/31/2025 at 9:50 AM, Tennessee Boy said:

So let’s hear your predictions.  When the year is over,  how much higher (or lower) will the average weight caught per angler per period be during FFS periods?

It’s early, but just ran the stats adjusted for most variables, and the answer after the first event is just over 2.5X better. In other words, for every 10 pounds caught without FFS, the Top 10 guys caught 25-1/2 pounds with it in the same amount of time (per period). Interestingly, the average bass weight between FFS caught fish and non FFS caught fish was nearly identical (less than 1/10 of a pound). That one surprised me. 

[AlabamaSpothunter]

I've only seen stats from day 1, but FFS usage accounted for about 80% of fish caught.     

 

My takeaway after the first event is that if you allow even 10 minutes of FFS usage, it will be the dominate and deciding factor for who does well, and who doesn't.   

 

I now feel like NPFL is the only real product that will be different.    Allowing folks to use FFS for a few hours each day is more than enough for it to still be the main factor in those events.

 

The NPFL roster is also pretty dang incredible.   Now if only they could get their coverage up to speed, and comparable to the MLF which is really fantastic.  

[Tennessee Boy]

4 hours ago, Team9nine said:

It’s early, but just ran the stats adjusted for most variables, and the answer after the first event is just over 2.5X better. In other words, for every 10 pounds caught without FFS, the Top 10 guys caught 25-1/2 pounds with it in the same amount of time (per period). Interestingly, the average bass weight between FFS caught fish and non FFS caught fish was nearly identical (less than 1/10 of a pound). That one surprised me. 

I've been working on some numbers on the entire field.  Unfortunately, MLF doesn't list what period each angler used FFS after the end of the day.  I didn't realize that until after the first day.  I have the data for days 2-4 and I've figured out the data for most of the anglers for day one so it's a work in progress.  It will be very interesting to see the number at the end of the year.  This issue needs some hard data.

 

IF ANYONE HAS THE ANGLER FFS PERIODS FOR DAY ONE PLEASE SHARE IT WITH ME!

[AlabamaSpothunter]

I suspect Bassblaster will have the stats soon enough.    That newsletter is one of the best resources in Bass fishing imho.   

[Team9nine]

51 minutes ago, AlabamaSpothunter said:

I've only seen stats from day 1, but FFS usage accounted for about 80% of fish caught.     

 

 

50 minutes ago, Tennessee Boy said:

I've been working on some numbers on the entire field.  Unfortunately, MLF doesn't list what period each angler used FFS after the end of the day.  I didn't realize that until after the first day.  I have the data for days 2-4 and I've figured out the data for most of the anglers for day one so it's a work in progress.  It will be very interesting to see the number at the end of the year.  This issue needs some hard data.

 

IF ANYONE HAS THE ANGLER FFS PERIODS FOR DAY ONE PLEASE SHARE IT WITH ME!

The Day 1-3 averages skew the data and aren’t a fair representation, IMO, due to unintended consequences and strategy. The early days were 4:1 or 5:1 in favor of FFS - very disproportionate. 
 

41 minutes ago, AlabamaSpothunter said:

I suspect Bassblaster will have the stats soon enough.    That newsletter is one of the best resources in Bass fishing imho.   

Courtesy of their “A.I.” guy? 😉 😁

 

Always an interesting read…

[Tennessee Boy]

1 hour ago, Team9nine said:

The Day 1-3 averages skew the data and aren’t a fair representation, IMO, due to unintended consequences and strategy. The early days were 4:1 or 5:1 in favor of FFS - very disproportionate.

I'm not sure I follow your thinking.  To me all of the data is interesting.  The final round tells us how much the top angler's in the tournament relied on FFS.   The average catch per period per angler for FFS periods and not FFS periods will tell us how much FFS improves the catch rate on average for all the anglers in the tournament.  That stat for the entire season will be very telling.  

 

FFS can be used in many different ways and its impact on catch rates varies.  In this tournament Scoping for suspended fish was the key to success for the top finishers.  Others may only use it to find a weed line. Still others may have it turned on but not use it at all.  Over the course of the season we can get a good idea what the total impact of FFS is to catch rates of top tier anglers.

 

It's all very interesting to a data geek like me. 😊

[Team9nine]

1 hour ago, Tennessee Boy said:

I'm not sure I follow your thinking.  To me all of the data is interesting.  The final round tells us how much the top angler's in the tournament relied on FFS.   The average catch per period per angler for FFS periods and not FFS periods will tell us how much FFS improves the catch rate on average for all the anglers in the tournament.  That stat for the entire season will be very telling.  

 

FFS can be used in many different ways and its impact on catch rates varies.  In this tournament Scoping for suspended fish was the key to success for the top finishers.  Others may only use it to find a weed line. Still others may have it turned on but not use it at all.  Over the course of the season we can get a good idea what the total impact of FFS is to catch rates of top tier anglers.

 

It's all very interesting to a data geek like me. 😊

I agree it’s all interesting, but most of the top guys the first couple days blew up the FFS score that first period so they could spend time looking, searching and trying to establish a non FFS pattern. In many cases when they hit a fish or two in an area, they’d leave them and go looking again. Many didn’t seem to care whether they caught much knowing they could rely on that first FFS period the next day. There was also the big reset on Day 3. So in my eyes, the fact that FFS accounted for 80% of all the catches  those first two days is a very misleading stat. It shows how much some of these guys are relying on it as part of an overall strategy, but the lack of non-FFS catches in comparison isn’t really representative of its true impact. The final Top 5 finishing guys were not the best 5 scopers by weight, but instead were the best 5 non-FFS weight accumulators.

[TnRiver46]

So what you’re saying is by limiting live sonar , they really just made all their fans focus on and talk about live sonar 😂 

 

we already knew it helps professionals catch fish, the data doesn’t interest me. The great experiment had a foregone conclusion as far as I could tell 

 

can’t wait for BASS to start up

[Tennessee Boy]

1 hour ago, TnRiver46 said:

the data doesn’t interest me

Whoa.. you mean you don't spend half your day looking at spreadsheets just for fun?😊

 

At the end of this season we may have the answer to one of the greatest questions that has plagued mankind, or maybe just the greatest issue that has been debated on this forum.

 

At the end of this season we will be able to say what percentage more or less the average MLF angler caught per period when using FFS.  This could range from 0% (FFS made no difference) to 150% (they caught 2.5 times more weight when using FFS).

 

Here's how I would interpret the results

 

150% or more:  The world is ending.  Anybody want to buy a boat?

100% - 150%:  I was wrong.  FFS should probably be banned in all tournaments.

0% - 30%:  FFS is a great advancement to the sport.

30% - 100%:  We will need to keep arguing about FFS. 😊

 

But that's just my opinion.

[TnRiver46]

@Tennessee Boy, I was told there would be no math 😆 

[Pumpkin Lizard]

2 hours ago, TnRiver46 said:

So what you’re saying is by limiting live sonar , they really just made all their fans focus on and talk about live sonar 😂 

 

we already knew it helps professionals catch fish, the data doesn’t interest me. The great experiment had a foregone conclusion as far as I could tell 

 

can’t wait for BASS to start up

I think limiting it to one period introduces a very interesting tactical wrinkle.

 

i can say that without a doubt. Watching one period of FFS is versus three periods is FAR more engaging.

 

If you don’t have a good FFS period then you are behind the power curve. So you need to use it wisely. There should be zero debate that anglers catch more fish with it.

 

Also you can’t expect your one period of FFS to carry you through. You have to be able to actually go fishing and keep up the momentum.

 

I’m looking forward to seeing the numbers in NPFL and I want to compare Swndle/Hackney/Christies BASS numbers versus NPFL since they are competing in both.

[TnRiver46]

Watching Connell’s YouTube video, I think he could have caught several more with the time he waited on the ref to weigh the fish 

[Dan N]

This just showed me, watching guys catch a bunch of fish using FFS is no worse than watching guys hardly catch any fish without it🤣 

Id rather just go fishing than watch any of it! 
unfortunately all ice in my parts. 
another month…

[gim]

43 minutes ago, Dan N said:

another month…

 

Only a month?  It's gonna be at least two more here before any open water.  There's nearly 2 feet of ice on the lakes.

[TnRiver46]

3 hours ago, gim said:

 

Only a month?  It's gonna be at least two more here before any open water.  There's nearly 2 feet of ice on the lakes.

Cut ya a chunk and take it down to the root cellar 

[Dan N]

Yes, unfortunately gonna be more than a month! Last year year got my first open water bass Feb. 26th. 
not gonna happen this year☹️

[gim]

1 hour ago, Dan N said:

Yes, unfortunately gonna be more than a month! Last year year got my first open water bass Feb. 26th. 
not gonna happen this year☹️

I think it’s safe to say most of us in the north won’t see a winter like last year for a while again. I’ve lived here for 33 years and it was easily the mildest in that time span. I was open water fishing on April 6. I don’t expect that this spring.

[Pumpkin Lizard]

It was in the 50s most of the week here in this part of Missouri and everything I fish is still locked up. The ice must have gotten thick. And it’s going back down to the teens this week so I don’t expect to fish until March.

[Swamp Girl]

If I was in the tournament, my FFS period would be utterly failing to make sense of what I was seeing on the screen. I would be like a chimpanzee trying to fly a 787.

 

My other three days would be me figuring where they were and what they wanted and then catching bass.