A-Jay's Annual Ice Out / Open Water Countdown Thread ~

[A-Jay]

25 minutes ago, 12poundbass said:

So what you're saying is that winter here will be over a full month early ? 

AWESOME !

😃

A-Jay

[12poundbass]

1 hour ago, A-Jay said:

So what you're saying is that winter here will be over a full month early ? 

AWESOME !

😃

A-Jay

Well played sir!

[MN Fisher]

(looks at @A-Jay, looks at the bartender and says) I want what he's drinking.

[A-Jay]

[casts_by_fly]

Well craptastic. after 2” of sleet today that’s largely 1.5” of slush right now, this does not bode well for early open water. That’s a lot of consistent snow. 
 

[A-Jay]

Last week I had to 'raise' the back gate fixtures to facilitate proper operation over the frozen hump of ice under it so it would open.  Maxed it out actually.

I'll need to lower it in the spring or the dogs will have a serious rabbit fest in the back forty

once the snow melts.

I think we're at 155 inch of snow so far this winter.

Average is 150 inches.

On our way to breaking the single season snowfall record locally

which currently stands at 202 inch or something close. 

Only need an inch or two a day until April and we'll crush that deal.

All I can tell you is that there's been more snow days there no snow days up in here.

https://www.facebook.com/100000092564585/videos/1608438100036471/

Only 57 days and a wake up.

Not looking realistic at this point.

A-Jay

 

[GreenPig]

3 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

Last week I had to 'raise' the back gate fixtures to facilitate proper operation over the frozen hump of ice under it so it would open.  Maxed it out actually.

I'll need to lower it in the spring or the dogs will have a serious rabbit fest in the back forty

once the snow melts.

I think we're at 155 inch of snow so far this winter.

Average is 150 inches.

On our way to breaking the single season snowfall record locally

which currently stands at 202 inch or something close. 

Only need an inch or two a day until April and we'll crush that deal.

All I can tell you is that there's been more snow days there no snow days up in here.

https://www.facebook.com/100000092564585/videos/1608438100036471/

Only 57 days and a wake up.

Not looking realistic at this point.

A-Jay

 

I feel for all our frozen BR members. I'm sure the pups would enjoy a rabbit "feast".

[A-Jay]

10 minutes ago, GreenPig said:

I feel for all our frozen BR members. I'm sure the pups would enjoy a rabbit "feast".

It's all good.

And the dogs do surely love a good chase.

Where we've had a few dogs that would actual dine on them if we let them,

our current two pack just wants to run them down, catch them, and then let them go.

Only to repeat the entire process. This will go on until the varmint kong finally expires,

usually from exhaustion. The snowshoe hare is a fan favorite.  

I on the other hand, do not enjoy burying them all.

PIA.

A-Jay

 

[A-Jay]

Despite February being a "short" month,

Some of the past few days have seemed partially long.

Last winter we had no snow

and this winter we have all the snow.

I'm at the 50 days and a wake up mark for projected open water bassing.

However, I'm pretty sure very few folks living here would actually agree with that.

A-Jay

 

[A-Jay]

Well we made it to March.

Before this hard water season and since the past winters have been mostly mild, 

I was really anticipating at least an average winter.

Hoping the lake water levels would at not reduce any more and

perhaps even rise up some.

Nailed it - with a record single season snowfall for this area. 

Been a seasonably cold one too which keeps a hat on Lake Menderchuck

reducing the evaporation that happens when it's not.

Still have 39 days and a wake up, which is looking more and more unrealistic by the day.

Either way, totally looking forward to that first early season flat water run across the lake.

A-Jay

[Jar11591]

Have you noticed any correlation between an early or late ice out and your fishing results? 
 

 

I’m trying not to get my hopes up but almost every day on the 2 week forcast is above 40, with one day even supposed to crack 60. Snow is melting quick. The rivers are still frozen so of course the lakes aren’t even close, but 50° and rain can get things moving pretty quick. I’m beyond antsy. 

[A-Jay]

1 hour ago, Jar11591 said:

Have you noticed any correlation between an early or late ice out and your fishing results? 
 

 

I’m trying not to get my hopes up but almost every day on the 2 week forcast is above 40, with one day even supposed to crack 60. Snow is melting quick. The rivers are still frozen so of course the lakes aren’t even close, but 50° and rain can get things moving pretty quick. I’m beyond antsy. 

It's been hard for me to come up with any hard and fast rules.

I think you know that though.

I have come to believe some real 'general deals'.

Super early open water does not prolong the pre-spawn bite for me.

And pre-spawn is just a what is commonly called the time period before the bass spawn.

The fish I am targeting early season are looking to capitalize on the perch spawn

and while they will be spawning later, they are looking to eat NOW.

No love making on their minds. 

42-44 degree surface temps in the areas I'm fishing seems to be a good thing.

Air temps mean virtually nothing.

Fish bite on both clear & sunny days as well as cloudy/overcast days. 

Some years when the water temps right and I'm hammer fatties,

I'm wearing no coat and other years I'm in the same gear I use to blow snow.

So as long as the winds & waves allow me to transit to & from the areas safely,

AND I can present baits effectively in those areas, I'll fish them.

The bass ARE COMING to these spots eventually, I just need to be there when they do.

Unlike the fall bite, early season still demands being at the spot before sunrise.

First light can still be surprisingly good, and I almost always have very little company.

Especially when the docks have not yet been put in and I'm using waders to launch/recover the rig. 

Mid day straight to sunset depending on the conditions keeps me casting. 

Surface Water temps above 55 for me signal the sad end of a great bite. 

Mostly because the perch have long finished spawning and move back out to deeper water and the bass have no other reason to be in there.

Good Luck.

A-Jay

 

[12poundbass]

With the extended forecast looking warm and next Saturday bringing a rain, I’m cautiously optimistic there’s a chance I’ll be close to my March 19 prediction. We shall see.

 

 

[A-Jay]

Spring-like warmth and increasingly breezy today,

with much of northern lower Michigan set to push daily record high temps.

The Spring fun and games come to a screeching halt later tonight into Tuesday, though, as a cold front sends temps plummeting with a sharp chill.

Weekend's looking like a bunch of warm-ish rain.

which is ALWAYS welcome this time of year.

My roof had been enjoying a major reduction in overall metric tonnage.

So that makes be smile.

32 days and a wake up still looks mostly improbable.

But we'll see.

I'll be ready either way . . . .

A-Jay

[A-Jay]

What a difference a few days can make ~

With a recent lack of snowfall and stupid warm/mild temperatures,

we have seen quite a bit of snow disappear.

We are (roughly) down to maybe 12 inches.

Snow is deeper in some parts and lower/gone in other parts of the property.

But after this weekend, forecasted to be even warmer with Big Fat Rain,

most if not all snow could be, dare I say it - gone.

Of course we'll be dealing with a rather robust Mud Season,

but we gotta take the good with the bad I suppose.

btw - my poor truck is a total disaster of salt & road groad.

30 Days and a wake up - could it be ?

A-Jay

[12poundbass]

@A-Jay I can’t begin to imagine the mud season you’re going to have with all of that snow and the rain coming tomorrow night! Hopefully with all of the snow it insulated the ground so you didn’t get too much frost. We received just under our average snowfall for the year but it was spread out so we had frost 2’ deep off the roadway and upwards of 4’ in the roadway. The snow has mostly been gone for a couple weeks which has given the frost a chance to slowly leave so, the rain shouldn’t leave things a huge mess.

 

Good luck.

[WaskaCrank12]

Today it is 60 here in west central MN....but on tap for tomorrow -- blizzard conditions with 55 mph winds, snow and 9 degree temps -- later today I will make sure the snow thrower fires up and that everything is battened down tight in anticipation of the screaming winds

[MIbassyaker]

scouting trips, last week and a half, to a few places --

 

Nope, not this one:

 

little better:

 

Aha! there's one!

[PaulVE64]

My river is over the banks at flood.

[12poundbass]

I saw my first ice out lake yesterday. Interestingly enough it’s named Bass lake. Yesterday we hit 75, it was very windy, and it rained last night. Today the wind will continue and a high of 72, so that should put a hurting on most remaining ice around here. 

[A-Jay]

Big rain here last night as well - even some March Thunder from down under.

(not sure what that means)

Either way we spotted the very first ROBIN Red Breast of the year this morning.

Hope it brings more melting with it.

Still plenty of snow here. 

Choosing not to list how many days in this one.

Let's let that simmer for a week or so and see what happens. 

A-Jay

 

 

[Smokinal]

The last few days have brought a big swing in the weather here. Temps are now consistantly ranging from 30-50 every day; and the 10 day forecast shows the same.

Web cams on my home lake are showing open water in the first 6-8 feet of the shoreline and the ice is darkening some.

I estimate full open water in 2-3 weeks unless we have some sort of reversion.

[A-Jay]

The overall weather trend here now is mostly Melting with a bit of coolness mixed it.

Either way it's been warm (relative term) enough to see me step up my

'Let's go fishing' preparations a bit.

Tackle is about 75% ready, still have ALL of my boat, motor & trailer prep to do,

but I still have some time.

Besides, I prefer to do that part of it in the warm sun

and we're not quite there just yet. 

21 Days and a Wake Up.

A-Jay

[casts_by_fly]

2 hours ago, A-Jay said:

The overall weather trend here now is mostly Melting with a bit of coolness mixed it.

Either way it's been warm (relative term) enough to see me step up my

'Let's go fishing' preparations a bit.

Tackle is about 75% ready, still have ALL of my boat, motor & trailer prep to do,

but I still have some time.

Besides, I prefer to do that part of it in the warm sun

and we're not quite there just yet. 

21 Days and a Wake Up.

A-Jay

I’ve never noticed it before but the pro-v looks oddly out of proportion with just a single axle and as far forward as it is. I’m sure it’s right, but any idea what your tongue weight % is?  I’d think with a big motor and poles that the axle should be further back. 
 

can’t wait for the first trip report. Hope you get a morning like last year with the glassy water. 

[MN Fisher]

I'm thinking my guess of 22 April was too conservative. Currently, several shore spots are open for business, with only Black Lake lagging a little...though a couple days may see that fixed.The way things are going on Tonka, we may see ice-out declared by the end of the month.