NOAA - the best feature for me as a bass fisherman.

[gim]

4 hours ago, ironbjorn said:

Usually the only time things don't always go as predicted is with summer pop-ups, but if you know anything about weather those are highly unpredictable.

That's the part of the forecast that I would argue is most important.  And if their modeling is highly unpredictable, then they need to relay it as such.  Which they don't.  They communicate it in a way that "this is going to happen" or "that is going to happen" at a specific time.  If they would just be more realistic about it, I'd be a lot more understanding of their forecasts.

[thediscochef]

6 hours ago, gimruis said:

That's the part of the forecast that I would argue is most important.  And if their modeling is highly unpredictable, then they need to relay it as such.  Which they don't.  They communicate it in a way that "this is going to happen" or "that is going to happen" at a specific time.  If they would just be more realistic about it, I'd be a lot more understanding of their forecasts.

That is one of the things about the NWS forecast office in DFW that I appreciate, their discussions usually feature some better explanations than what you get on the news. The office forecast discussions are easily just as useful as the 7 day forecasts, they help give a better understanding of larger patterns and what can be possible on a given day.

 

I can match the time the bite stopped today with the NWS's surface pressure readings, that's been my best predictor of catch rates lately 

[Bankbeater]

I usually check the temp, wind, and sunrise before I head out on a fishing trip.  If it looks rainy I keep an eye on the sky and have the radar pulled up on my phone just so I don't get caught off guard.

[Standard]

On 9/22/2023 at 10:08 AM, gimruis said:

That's the part of the forecast that I would argue is most important.  And if their modeling is highly unpredictable, then they need to relay it as such.  Which they don't.  They communicate it in a way that "this is going to happen" or "that is going to happen" at a specific time.  If they would just be more realistic about it, I'd be a lot more understanding of their forecasts.

 

Sounds like you don't understand how weather forecasting works.  I suggest reading the forecast discussions from the NWS.  Novak weather is a good follow on facebook if you use it, he does a good job of explaining what's going on.  Read up on forecast modeling and the different systems in use, how and why they can disagree on things.  

 

Just stating 'meteorologists lie' is lazy and uninformed.  Also incorrect, it's an old and worn out trope. 

[Darth-Baiter]

@thediscochef  can you please explain the Surface Pressure thing?  sounds interesting, and the first i've heard of it, honestly and it applying to our hobby. 

[gim]

22 minutes ago, Standard said:

 

Sounds like you don't understand how weather forecasting works.  I suggest reading the forecast discussions from the NWS.  Novak weather is a good follow on facebook if you use it, he does a good job of explaining what's going on.  Read up on forecast modeling and the different systems in use, how and why they can disagree on things.  

 

Just stating 'meteorologists lie' is lazy and uninformed.  Also incorrect, it's an old and worn out trope. 

I've lived with it every day of my life living here.  Obviously anyone with a little bit of meteorology IQ understands that weather is not an exact science.  My issue is that they pretend like it is.  All they would have to do is admit that they might be wrong sometimes because of the uncertainty.  They don't.

 

I work with people from NOAA sometimes.  They think that local meteorologists and weather apps are a joke.

[thediscochef]

32 minutes ago, Darth-Baiter said:

@thediscochef  can you please explain the Surface Pressure thing?  sounds interesting, and the first i've heard of it, honestly and it applying to our hobby. 

I usually look at the location I'm trying to fish, and then click on the 3-day history (red circle). It shows an hourly report of pressure from the nearest NOAA station (red box). Wunderground has more stations that can give you better locality but they are not always calibrated to NOAA standards. NOAA area forecast discussions are the best way to get forecasts, the graphics are nice but they explain them in detail with the AFD.

Generally when the pressure is dropping in value, I get lockjawed fish. Dropping surface pressure is often associated with the approach of a cold front or a thunderstorm/deteriorating conditions. It also drops in the middle of the day as the surface air warms and rises. Pressure will rise after the weather moves through, or when the air cools and sinks. When the pressure value is on an upward trend, I'm less likely to skunk. I haven't noticed a particular pressure reading that indicates bites, it's more about the trend. Some of my best fishing this year has been on the back side of storms as the pressure is rising. On the flip side of that, they will also bite more aggressively in a rain shower (local low pressure) because most birds of prey do not hunt in the rain, and then the bite will back off even while the pressure rises and the rain comes to an end. Once in a while I will get on a hot pre-storm bite, but it's rare. There's always exceptions. I have noticed every day for the last month that my fishing success follows the hourly pressure trends pretty closely, but we haven't had a ton of change in our weather patterns. On the sunny summer days, from about 5am we might rise 3-4mb till about noon when it either levels off or drops. Bite window is best between 6:30am and 10am. then as the sun sets the pressure rises again until 10pm-midnight, and then it drops again. Bite window anywhere from an hour or two before sunset, a lull while everyone's eyes adjust to the darkness, then good again until the pressure starts falling (usually midnight ish, later in the deep summer). There are variations to this, and as is the case for everything in bass fishing it is not a 100% predictor of great fishing. Just made the bluebird days slightly more predictable for me this August/September

I intend to get an actual barometer to carry with me soon for more accurate readings

[Standard]

1 hour ago, gimruis said:

I've lived with it every day of my life living here.  Obviously anyone with a little bit of meteorology IQ understands that weather is not an exact science.  My issue is that they pretend like it is.  All they would have to do is admit that they might be wrong sometimes because of the uncertainty.  They don't.

 

I work with people from NOAA sometimes.  They think that local meteorologists and weather apps are a joke.

 

Any examples you could provide?  You must follow different meteorologists than I do, because I haven't seen anything like what you're claiming.

[Darth-Baiter]

@thediscochef  thanks.  that is golden info!!  i had a watch that would track barometric pressure and i never had the forethought to cross check with how i fished.  

 

again,  thanks.

[gim]

@thediscochef good info there on the pressure and how it relates to your observed success when fishing.  That's real world proof that it can make a difference in how willing fish are to bite, and when.

[TnRiver46]

2 hours ago, Standard said:

 

Sounds like you don't understand how weather forecasting works.  

It works like my chainsaw. Not at all 

[WRB]

Today we have Doppler radar at our finger tips for accurate weather currently and within a window of being on the water.

Forecasting weather today is a combination of aircraft flights, satellite overhead feedback, high and low pressure in real time plus Doppler radar. It’s fairly accurate along the west coast where I live. The issue is we have 2 major ocean currents coming together 75 miles north of me that impacts the weather and compounds predicting weather patterns several day in advance. 24 hours in advance the weather reports have been accurate.

Tom