Largemouth Bass Catch Odds and Percentages Chart

[GRiver]

WHOA!!!…. Fishing just got complicated, and a little depressing if you look at the numbers like that.
Do I get any points for just love being on the water?

 

[TnRiver46]

26 minutes ago, GRiver said:

WHOA!!!…. Fishing just got complicated, and a little depressing if you look at the numbers like that.
Do I get any points for just love being on the water?

 

3 points awarded 

[GrumpyOlPhartte]

@MN Fisher:  but what are the odds of catching a babblefish?  (Although your odds DO go up if ya fish in the EARie Canal.)  ?

[Bird]

So your say'n I have a chance !. Ha ha

 

Think the chart may be more for entertainment value as I've never once reported a fish caught or taken a pole and if I had.....those percentages would be lower ?

[Bankc]

It has to depend on the body of water.  At the three local lakes I frequent, I catch well over a hundred bass a year and have never seen one over 4lbs in the many years I've fished them.  There might be some in there, but if it were 1 in 34 odds, I'd have seen one by now.

[Gera]

While is great to see organized data on this site, I don't think is statically posible to have a chart that will give you the odds of caching a fish of a given size considering that population of those large fish is different from state to state.. the possibilities to get over 12lbs here in MI are way, way lower than they are in FL or TX.

[RDB]

Interesting but to me you would have to calculate by state.  I can guarantee you that the odds of catching an 7-8 pounder in Texas are quite different than up north.
 

Also, I don’t think these numbers are for 1 year.  Texas is one of the big bass states and there were 120ish ShareLunker 10+ pounders in 2021.  My reading of the chart says there are over 100,000 10+.  I realize many don’t register their ShareLunker catch but considering most states can’t produce that class bass, this has to be cumulative.

 

Last point is there is no way to factor in skill level.  The same week Josh caught his 15.4, there were 2 over 14 from Ivie.  Several weeks before his 15.4, Ivie produced a 16.4 and multiple over 13lbs in the month.

[Team9nine]

Ask and ye shall receive ?

 

[RDB]

That makes more sense.  Now if I wanted to pump myself up, I would calculate my odds and include all those <1% states and I would look like a fishing God.  That’s not a knock on Josh, he is a fishing God.  It’s just not a fair or accurate comparison.

[Team9nine]

22 minutes ago, RDB said:

That makes more sense.  Now if I wanted to pump myself up, I would calculate my odds and include all those <1% states and I would look like a fishing God.  That’s not a knock on Josh, he is a fishing God.  It’s just not a fair or accurate comparison.

 

The one thing I've been thinking about in all this, and that is reflected in this table, is that the states with <1% odds are all states with no documented FL bass genes to my knowledge - all pure northern strain bass. What I'm really curious about is whether the big bass suspension phenomena, as witnessed by JJ and other FFS guys chasing these beasts, is a byproduct of the introgression of FL bass genes into the population. Certainly all the southern OK and TX lakes Josh has caught 10-pounders from have all been FL gene influenced. Can that same behavior be documented and capitalized on in a pure northern strain bass fishery? Could Josh catch a 10 lb bass in a non-FL gene based lake somewhere else in the country using the same FFS suspended bass program? Would love to see him try to shed some light on this possible behavioral difference.

[RDB]

When you say the suspension phenomena, are you referring to his experiences with locating these big bass suspended over deeper water?  If yes, I think it’s a good question (NS v FS).  IMO, Florida strains tend to be more wary and I would guess fishing pressure might have some influence.  While I can’t prove this, I believe there is a population of large bass that spend most if not all of their time offshore in deeper water.  If you think about it in hunting terms, big bucks tend to have sanctuary sites where they feel safe and are not bothered.  Bass and bucks both use travel routes, stop signs, staging areas, etc. ect.  I believe both often have their sanctuary spots as well.  I think pressure has only enhanced this behavior.  A 10lb NS is the real unicorn.

[A-Jay]

32 minutes ago, Team9nine said:

 

The one thing I've been thinking about in all this, and that is reflected in this table, is that the states with <1% odds are all states with no documented FL bass genes to my knowledge - all pure northern strain bass. What I'm really curious about is whether the big bass suspension phenomena, as witnessed by JJ and other FFS guys chasing these beasts, is a byproduct of the introgression of FL bass genes into the population. Certainly all the southern OK and TX lakes Josh has caught 10-pounders from have all been FL gene influenced. Can that same behavior be documented and capitalized on in a pure northern strain bass fishery? Could Josh catch a 10 lb bass in a non-FL gene based lake somewhere else in the country using the same FFS suspended bass program? Would love to see him try to shed some light on this possible behavioral difference.

Great Question ~

And I'd be willing to bet that there are a few sharpies up north here,

that have already started 'exploring the possibilities'.   

Not sure if the DD northern bass is all that common, especially when compared to the water's JJ has been doing damage on recently.

But we might see a few eye-popping bags coming out of places & during times that could be  considered seriously non-traditional, if you know what I mean.

And where I would be VERY interested to put FFS to work,

is on some of these larger inland lakes in the north woods that hold big brown bass.

There's a ton of 'assumptions' about where those big 6, 7, 8 and 9 lb plus females go in July,

but so FEW true giants are ever caught and if they are, folks are being pretty tight lipped about it.

Something Mr Jones is not. 

I've said FFS was probably not in my future.

Well, this could put a whole different spin on that scene ! 

Fish Hard.

A-Jay

[cyclops2]

Some people can not take the stress of not fishing .

[Team9nine]

5 minutes ago, RDB said:

When you say the suspension phenomena, are you referring to his experiences with locating these big bass suspended over deeper water?  If yes, I think it’s a good question (NS v FS).  IMO, Florida strains tend to be more wary and I would guess fishing pressure might have some influence.  While I can’t prove this, I believe there is a population of large bass that spend most if not all of their time offshore in deeper water.  If you think about it in hunting terms, big bucks tend to have sanctuary sites where they feel safe and are not bothered.  Bass and bucks both use travel routes, stop signs, staging areas, etc. ect.  I believe both often have their sanctuary spots as well.  I think pressure has only enhanced this behavior.  A 10lb NS is the real unicorn.

 

Yep. He mentioned a week or two back that he's only caught two of his double digit bass fishing in less than 10 ft of water. He has also mentioned that he doesn't fish structure/cover in the normal sense. It's why he removes the weed guard from his swim jigs - he doesn't need them. He simply puts the trolling motor down and starts looking for these fish out in open water. If you watch enough of his video snippets though, you can tell he isn't catching most of these fish deep - they are shallow but suspended over deeper water. That could be a genetic carryover or behavior from the FL gene influence.

 

You mention associating 10 lb. northern bass as being unicorns, but you could make the argument that before JJ came along and sacked nearly 5 dozen DDs in two years, most people wouldn't have guessed that possible in said waters. Certainly we probably couldn't name a single other person in that region who has done even remotely similar. Only names like Butch Brown in CA come to mind on an equal/higher level in the recent past, at least that I'm aware of. He's tapped into a fish/fishery that few, if any people, even knew existed. John Hope's tracking kind of documented this possibility, but it took FFS to really prove it and provide a way to capitalize on it in any sense of an efficient way. Could that be duplicated in a pure northern strain fishery...even if we dropped the size from 10 lbs to, say, 8 pounds? Is there a BIG bass population in these northern strain fisheries that has gone completely overlooked because of this behavior tendency? My hunch is, 'no', but would love to see someone like him come north and be proven wrong.

[The Bassman]

Our Indiana state record was over 14 lb. and if I'm still remembering right was pure northern strain.

[Team9nine]

4 minutes ago, The Bassman said:

Our Indiana state record was over 14 lb. and if I'm still remembering right was pure northern strain.

 

A freak of nature that has now stood for 30 years. It will still be standing when I pass away. Very similar to the 15-08 Massachusetts fish - both just freaks. 

[RDB]

28 minutes ago, Team9nine said:

 

Yep. He mentioned a week or two back that he's only caught two of his double digit bass fishing in less than 10 ft of water. He has also mentioned that he doesn't fish structure/cover in the normal sense. It's why he removes the weed guard from his swim jigs - he doesn't need them. He simply puts the trolling motor down and starts looking for these fish out in open water. If you watch enough of his video snippets though, you can tell he isn't catching most of these fish deep - they are shallow but suspended over deeper water. That could be a genetic carryover or behavior from the FL gene influence.

 

You mention associating 10 lb. northern bass as being unicorns, but you could make the argument that before JJ came along and sacked nearly 5 dozen DDs in two years, most people wouldn't have guessed that possible in said waters. Certainly we probably couldn't name a single other person in that region who has done even remotely similar. Only names like Butch Brown in CA come to mind on an equal/higher level in the recent past, at least that I'm aware of. He's tapped into a fish/fishery that few, if any people, even knew existed. John Hope's tracking kind of documented this possibility, but it took FFS to really prove it and provide a way to capitalize on it in any sense of an efficient way. Could that be duplicated in a pure northern strain fishery...even if we dropped the size from 10 lbs to, say, 8 pounds? Is there a BIG bass population in these northern strain fisheries that has gone completely overlooked because of this behavior tendency? My hunch is, 'no', but would love to see someone like him come north and be proven wrong.

I’m agreeing with you and think his experiences support the comment that many large bass spend most/all their time in deeper, unpressured waters.  I believe one of his fish was caught at ~4ft over 40ft, usually suspended around trees and not in open water with nothing around.  For many years crappie fishermen have caught monsters this way.  LiveScope has just opened up that world.  How does that relate to NS?  I’m not sure but I don’t know why it wouldn’t translate.

[The Bassman]

34 minutes ago, Team9nine said:

 

A freak of nature that has now stood for 30 years. It will still be standing when I pass away. Very similar to the 15-08 Massachusetts fish - both just freaks. 

Stranger things have happened. I know a local guy who just caught an 8 lbr. on New Years eve from an HOA lake.

[slonezp]

Conspiracy of the Josh's

[WRB]

I gave Josh a side by side photo of 28” NLMB and FLMB for body mass comparison. The NLMB was 12.4 lbs, the FLMB 18.6 lbs. Both bass were caught at lake Casitas, on the same jig, same point 10 years apart. See page 14  in Lunker Lore and page 55 for 18.6 giant bass photo.

In 1971 FLMB were stock in Casitas that had zero DD FLMB, the NLMB we’re stocked in Casitas during the dam construction in 1956. Can’t catch giant bass in a lake that doesn’t have bass that size.

Tom

 

[ArFisher]

In  the last year I've caught 77 bass 5 lbs and over with my PB of 12 lbs being among them. There was 5 out of the 77 that were over 10 lbs. 

[Zcoker]

I was just text-talking about this subject the other day with a buddy of mine, how catch odds can dramatically increase in specific areas for very large bass. We were specifically talking about Headwaters Lake, a 10k acre impoundment located here in Fellsmere, Florida. In a very short time that place has racked up quite an impressive trophy bag. FWC officially repots 218 fish 8-9.9lbs, 56 fish 10-12.9lbs, and 1 fish 13 plus pounder...and those are just the ones officially recorded. There's plenty more that never have been logged. With those kinda official numbers, even normal Joe can certainly see how the odds of catching a big fish dramatically increase compared to other more natural areas. Any heavily managed spoon-fed fishery where bass are genetically engineered, stocked and then fed the best table fair, odds go way up catching a big healthy specimen. The most important often overlooked part of the equation can be the location and the origin of the fish in general; naturally wild or manmade and managed, a MASSIVE difference, IMHO. 

 

[Darth-Baiter]

I can't see the pic, but I'm pretty sure my arse is on the back side of that sheet as a footnote.  hahahha...

[1984isNOW]

If I ever considered moving to another state, it would be based on where I would have the highest chance of catching DD bass. 

 

Could FLMB strain actually thrive in northern states like MA? 

 

Its starting to feel like I have less and less choice but to get a real boat and Forward Facing Sonar to stand a chance around here of anything even remotely close to DD. I've posted here before about a tackle shop owner in NH saying it took him 60 years to catch a bass over 8 pounds - the tackle shop was his house... It broke my heart knowing my chances were significantly less since I lost my once in a lifetime 8-15 pounder already.

 

Anybody in Cali or FL or Texas looking for a roommate with a wife, 2 kids, 2 cats, and a ton of fishing gear? We can squeeze into one room if you can put me on a 10 pounder.

[WRB]

Florida strain LMB have a low tolerance to water less then 45 degrees F. This factor limits their range. 

Your highest % per man hour fished to catch a DD LMB is a trip to Mexico. 

Tom