Largemouth Bass Catch Odds and Percentages Chart

[A-Jay]

The chart below was shared on FB by Josh Jones. 

He credits Josh Alwine as the creator.

Hard to tell for sure but I think this is supposed to cover this country for a years time. 

Personally, I don't really know what to think about it.

Can these numbers ever really be accurately establish ?

Considering Mr Jones caught TWO over 15 this year, 

and according to this, the odds of getting one in the net are over 18 million to 1,

that's a heck of a Lucky year isn't it ?

Wonder if this data takes forward facing sonar into account ?

Either way, they told me there'd be No Math.

A-Jay

 

[gim]

I can just focus on the columns that go to 8-9 pounds considering that largemouth bass don't grow any bigger than that here and the current state record is in that size range.

 

The column that indicates 6-7 pounds with odds of 1 in 825 interests me because that is what I need to break a new PB.

 

I was reading about pure strain muskies in November when the new state record was caught here in MN and according to a statistical article that I read, you actually have a better chance to get struck by lightning twice and win the lottery all in the same day than you do to catch the next world record muskie.

[MN Fisher]

1 minute ago, gimruis said:

I can just focus on the columns that go to 8-9 pounds considering that largemouth bass don't grow any bigger than that here and the current state record is in that size range.

 

The column that indicates 6-7 pounds with odds of 1 in 825 interests me because that is what I need to break a new PB.

I hear you there on the first part

 

Second part - I just need something over 4.7 for a new PB - though a 5+ would be very nice.

[gim]

2 minutes ago, MN Fisher said:

Second part - I just need something over 4.7 for a new PB

 

The odds of 4-5 pounder aren't actually that bad.  1 in 34 doesn't seem unreasonable at all when you look further down the chart.

[T-Billy]

 I don't know how an accurate chart could possibly be made for a single lake, let alone the country. Too many variables. 

 

 

[MN Fisher]

Just now, gimruis said:

 

The odds of 4-5 pounder aren't actually that bad.  1 in 34 doesn't seem unreasonable at all when you look further down the chart.

Ya - but when I only got out 6 times last year - that means almost 3 years to make it even-odds.

[EWREX]

at least my odd's of catching a 15-16 pounder are better than winning powerball!

[gim]

3 minutes ago, MN Fisher said:

Ya - but when I only got out 6 times last year - that means almost 3 years to make it even-odds.

Your odds will go up significantly when you get that rebuilt boat on the water.  That is an absolute fact.

[Team9nine]

Alwine wrote two books, "Lunker Lore" and "High Percentage Fishing." I believer @WRB was part of one of those books, or at least spoke with Mr. Alwine. I believe the numbers are just a statistical extrapolation based on catch records and data accumulated throughout the country as a whole. He has stated that some of the statistics in his book come from "40,000 (data points) I already have... which mostly comes from clubs/tournaments/big bass programs." His books were published fairly recently, but before the popularity of FFS, which is really a very recent phenomena in the bass world. As such, one interesting aspect of this is how a tool like FFS can potentially skew the data/odds in your favor, witness Josh Jones.

 

Based on my own research I did when running my website, and a piece I wrote on how truly rare 5 lb. bass are, I think the chart at least gives a decent set of numbers to ponder reflecting this. Back in December 2006, I examined tournament reports from six states, which consisted of 18,000 tournaments and four million angling-hours of competition, and concluded that the average time that it took the anglers in these tournaments to catch a five-pound bass was 495.5 hours. That data was assembled just a few years after the largemouth bass virus had affected many of the southern tourney waters (primarily 1998-2002). I later looked at more recent data (2008-2010) for these same states, and the fisheries had rebounded somewhat. It still took on average 148, 189, and 288 hours to catch a five-pound bass in Alabama, Oklahoma and Mississippi, respectively. Additionally, data showed it took about 106 hours to catch a bass over 20-inch (4.5 pounds) in Kansas, and 211 hours to catch a bass over four pounds in Tennessee.

[TnRiver46]

[EWREX]

16 minutes ago, TnRiver46 said:

[A-Jay]

41 minutes ago, Team9nine said:

Alwine wrote two books, "Lunker Lore" and "High Percentage Fishing." I believer @WRB was part of one of those books, or at least spoke with Mr. Alwine. I believe the numbers are just a statistical extrapolation based on catch records and data accumulated throughout the country as a whole. He has stated that some of the statistics in his book come from "40,000 (data points) I already have... which mostly comes from clubs/tournaments/big bass programs." His books were published fairly recently, but before the popularity of FFS, which is really a very recent phenomena in the bass world. As such, one interesting aspect of this is how a tool like FFS can potentially skew the data/odds in your favor, witness Josh Jones.

 

Based on my own research I did when running my website, and a piece I wrote on how truly rare 5 lb. bass are, I think the chart at least gives a decent set of numbers to ponder reflecting this. Back in December 2006, I examined tournament reports from six states, which consisted of 18,000 tournaments and four million angling-hours of competition, and concluded that the average time that it took the anglers in these tournaments to catch a five-pound bass was 495.5 hours. That data was assembled just a few years after the largemouth bass virus had affected many of the southern tourney waters (primarily 1998-2002). I later looked at more recent data (2008-2010) for these same states, and the fisheries had rebounded somewhat. It still took on average 148, 189, and 288 hours to catch a five-pound bass in Alabama, Oklahoma and Mississippi, respectively. Additionally, data showed it took about 106 hours to catch a bass over 20-inch (4.5 pounds) in Kansas, and 211 hours to catch a bass over four pounds in Tennessee.

Thank You.

A-Jay

[Deleted account]

The odds of me catching big fish goes up exponentially when I fish mid week during the early prespawn in places I know they live in, carry the one...

[T-Billy]

22 minutes ago, Team9nine said:

Alwine wrote two books, "Lunker Lore" and "High Percentage Fishing." I believer @WRB was part of one of those books, or at least spoke with Mr. Alwine. I believe the numbers are just a statistical extrapolation based on catch records and data accumulated throughout the country as a whole. He has stated that some of the statistics in his book come from "40,000 (data points) I already have... which mostly comes from clubs/tournaments/big bass programs." His books were published fairly recently, but before the popularity of FFS, which is really a very recent phenomena in the bass world. As such, one interesting aspect of this is how a tool like FFS can potentially skew the data/odds in your favor, witness Josh Jones.

 

Based on my own research I did when running my website, and a piece I wrote on how truly rare 5 lb. bass are, I think the chart at least gives a decent set of numbers to ponder reflecting this. Back in December 2006, I examined tournament reports from six states, which consisted of 18,000 tournaments and four million angling-hours of competition, and concluded that the average time that it took the anglers in these tournaments to catch a five-pound bass was 495.5 hours. That data was assembled just a few years after the largemouth bass virus had affected many of the southern tourney waters (primarily 1998-2002). I later looked at more recent data (2008-2010) for these same states, and the fisheries had rebounded somewhat. It still took on average 148, 189, and 288 hours to catch a five-pound bass in Alabama, Oklahoma and Mississippi, respectively. Additionally, data showed it took about 106 hours to catch a bass over 20-inch (4.5 pounds) in Kansas, and 211 hours to catch a bass over four pounds in Tennessee.

Dare ya go showin off dat fancy book lernin agin. ? I like your numbers, they seem to reflect my experience here in OH closer than the chart in the OP. 21 was a heck of a year for me. I fished from early March through mid December and put in roughly 800hrs. I caught one 6#, one 5+, seven 4+, and more than a dozen over 3#. It's gonna be a tough year for me to top.

[Tennessee Boy]

When I go to the grocery later today in my rural Tennessee town,  there is a 19.2 percent chance that the first person I see will be Chinese because China's population is 19.2 percent of the worlds population.

 

 

[Deleted account]

9 minutes ago, Tennessee Boy said:

When I go to the grocery later today in my rural Tennessee town,  there is a 19.2 percent chance that the first person I see will be Chinese because China's population is 19.2 percent of the worlds population.

 

So much for no child left behind...  

[WRB]

I did contribute to Josh Alwine’s Lunker Lore book.

Tom

[MN Fisher]

7 minutes ago, WRB said:

I did contribute to Josh Alwine’s Lunker Lore book.

Tom

Considering the encyclopedia of knowledge you've displayed here, Tom...I'm not surprised.

[king fisher]

If, the odds of hooking a bass over 22 lbs. is over 18,000,000, to one. and 

according to my calculations, the odds that I get a severe backlash on any cast I hook a bass of 22lbs. are 1 to 1.  My question is what are the odds of both happening at the same time?  What are the odds of my being able to dig the backlash out in time to land the bass, and what is the chance of lightning striking me while attempting to dig the backlash out?  What are the odds, I wouldn't care about the lightning?

[Tennessee Boy]

38 minutes ago, king fisher said:

If, the odds of hooking a bass over 22 lbs. is over 18,000,000, to one. and 

according to my calculations, the odds that I get a severe backlash on any cast I hook a bass of 22lbs. are 1 to 1.  My question is what are the odds of both happening at the same time?  What are the odds of my being able to dig the backlash out in time to land the bass, and what is the chance of lightning striking me while attempting to dig the backlash out?  What are the odds, I wouldn't care about the lightning?

The answer is 4.  

[MN Fisher]

3 minutes ago, Tennessee Boy said:

The answer is 4.  

No - it's 42

[Tennessee Boy]

1 minute ago, MN Fisher said:

No - it's 42

I stand corrected.

 

P.S.  That was a good book.

[Trox]

If you fish as much as Josh Jones does, your chances go up.

If you fish as much as Josh Jones in does in Texas, your chances also go up.

If you fish as much as Josh Jones does in Texas at O.H. Ivy, your chances go up more...

If you fish as much as Josh Jones does in Texas at O.H. Ivy and only target giant bass, your chances go up even more...

 

I remember seeing him post his last boat up for sale on Facebook, even had a little chat back and forth with him about it, and he had about 600hrs on that motor in a single year. He's an every day fisherman who idles a ton to find the right spots, in the right lake, at the right time. I saw him each day I fished O.H. Ivy last year around March. and yup, he was always the first at the ramp in the morning.

 

For someone who maybe goes fishing once a year and throws a senko, it may be a 1 in 18,000,000 chance, but there are definately ways to greatly increase your odds. At least that is what I tell myself  

[slowworm]

4 hours ago, MN Fisher said:

No - it's 42

But you must also bring a towel.

[txchaser]

 

10 hours ago, Team9nine said:

It still took on average 148, 189, and 288 hours to catch a five-pound bass in Alabama, Oklahoma and Mississippi, respectively.

 

I'd bet my last TW order that regular readers of Bass Resource have significantly better odds than the chart above.