Warm rain in winter....

[softwateronly]

I've witnessed the incredible benefit of a warm rain in early spring, have any Northerners seen a warm rain winter benefit when the overall trend is toward colder?  Water temp is between 39-40 and the forecast is for a 50 degree day with .25" of rain.

 

scott

[Catt]

What was the weather for the last 2 days & what will the weather be for the next 2 days. 

 

Stable weather will do more than a 1/4" of rain. 

[softwateronly]

9 minutes ago, Catt said:

What was the weather for the last 2 days & what will the weather be for the next 2 days. 

 

Stable weather will do more than a 1/4" of rain. 

Stable and warm for the time and locale but ultimately as cold or colder than the water.  

 

 

scott

[Catt]

Cloudy, partly cloudy, sunshine?

 

Winds?

 

[softwateronly]

Yes.....you really are from Louisiana....

 

I kid

 

scott

 

[WRB]

What is the water temperature at the depth the majority of the bass are currently in? Air temps do not directly affect water temperatures at depth. Rain may be warmer then surface water but has little impact on deeper water unless high winds are included that can mix the water temps.

I guarantee the rain with wind will make you uncomfortable. 

Tom

[softwateronly]

Just now, WRB said:

What is the water temperature at the depth the majority of the bass are currently in? Air temps do not directly affect water temperatures at depth. Rain may be warmer then surface water but has little impact on deeper water unless high winds are included that can mix the water temps.

I guarantee the rain with wind will make you uncomfortable. 

Tom

 

You're certainly correct, but I have experience working outside for long hours in less than ideal weather so sometimes I take a beating for fun.  Both yourself and  @Catt   are correct in tempering expectations.  I've seen a cold lake turn on with a warm rain in spring, but I believe that's more related to bait and bass trending toward and actually moving shallow and the rain might have sped it up.  That doesn't seem likely going into ice up.  I have nearby wintering holes near gradual breaks and sharp breaks to flats near a warm creek/marsh.  Was hoping the fleeting warmth might trigger a bit of an uptick in metabolism. The winds are from 10-20mph, the wintering holes are 28'-35'.  Water temp was 39 at 15' depth, 40 surface last week.

 

scott

[WRB]

Slow down, the bass will not be affected in water over 20’!

Tom

[softwateronly]

9 minutes ago, WRB said:

Slow down, the bass will not be affected in water over 20’!

Tom

 

I might not have worded it clearly.  I caught 6 last week in 10-12' off sharp breaks from 20'-8'ish, also saw some shallow cruisers, but all under 2lbs.

 

scott  

[Catt]

1 hour ago, softwateronly said:

Both yourself and  @Catt   are correct in tempering expectations

 

A 1/4" of rain ain't gonna produce that much runoff. A 1/4" of rain falling on the lake ain't gonna do much.

 

If there's any benefit it will be shallow round runoff areas & the backs of creeks.

[T-Billy]

It's been my experience that a few days of mild temps, sunshine, and light winds will move ALOT more bass shallow than a warm rain.

[Catt]

On 12/20/2021 at 9:08 PM, softwateronly said:

 

I might not have worded it clearly.  I caught 6 last week in 10-12' off sharp breaks from 20'-8'ish, also saw some shallow cruisers, but all under 2lbs.

 

scott  

 

Classic late winter, early pre-spawn patterns.

 

Big Momma not quite ready to move. Keep in mind the bass you're catching in 10-12' will be the first to move. 

 

Watch for stable weather conditions!

 

Stable doesn't mean bright sunshiny days, it can be 4-5 days of cloudy weather. I actually prefer cloud cover, it holds the heat in.

 

You're on the right track just watching the wrong indicator.

[softwateronly]

11 hours ago, Catt said:

 

Classic late winter, early pre-spawn patterns.

 

Big Momma not quite ready to move. Keep in mind the bass you're catching in 10-12' will be the first to move. 

 

Watch for stable weather conditions!

 

Stable doesn't mean bright sunshiny days, it can be 4-5 days of cloudy weather. I actually prefer cloud cover, it holds the heat in.

 

You're on the right track just watching the wrong indicator.

 

For sure, but we have yet to ice up in SW MI.  These bass spend 115+ days of the year in water colder than 45 degrees and they put on weight during this time period.  Sure, they're cold blooded and respond to their environment but the bigger fish are better adapted than their prey.  I think they move in and out or up and down from their wintering holes if the food source does.  The warm rain I'm mentioning is part of a 5 day period where only 2 nights are going to be colder than the water temp.  I also know that warm water carries a lot more heat than air.  Even though ice-in is imminent, I think, but don't know, that there should be a noticeable uptick in activity toward the end of this stretch of warmth.  

 

I appreciate everyone's insight, its born of experience.  Sometimes I think fisherman in the North forget that on average the bigger the fish, the bigger the advantage they have in cold water.  Big bass are ambush/opportunists if they're anything.  These are the thoughts without the experience to back it up, hope I can put some of it to the test.  Paddling a canoe in the wind will keep me warm, if not a bit of bourbon will.

 

scott

[Bigassbass]

I've been catching good size fish for the last week, here in N.C. the temps are in the 60-70's for good ten days.  Today some small bass were hanging in the shallows cruising, crazy weather.  The first days of warm up I caught them on night crawlers, then I changed over to hard lures jerk baits and lipless cranks.  Been real fun catching fish in December.  Move south then you don't have to worry about ice out.

[softwateronly]

3 hours ago, Bigassbass said:

I've been catching good size fish for the last week, here in N.C. the temps are in the 60-70's for good ten days.  Today some small bass were hanging in the shallows cruising, crazy weather.  The first days of warm up I caught them on night crawlers, then I changed over to hard lures jerk baits and lipless cranks.  Been real fun catching fish in December.  Move south then you don't have to worry about ice out.

 

I like fishing, I like cities, I like my job.  I love my current set up, minus late december -  early march.  Still working on a plan for that.

 

scott