Fantasy Fishing 2022 - Official Thread

[MIbassyaker]

Landed at 63.5% with a score of 953.  Not a great start, but not nearly as dire as it looked after Day 1...

 

 

 

But my Drain The Lake was another story:

 

My DTL picks were Hackney, Crews, Menendez, Prince, Morgenthaler, Benton, Davis, & Cook.  The weird thing is, I don't really think I picked this event "better" for DTL than for the regular Fantasy game. Only 4 of the 8 guys above made the cut for day 3, and only two on day 4.  Two overlapped with my regular fantasy team, including Crews, the winner, and Prince, who didn't make it past day 2.

 

Rather, the key difference seems to be the bonus you get for picking the winner.  In DTL you get double points for the winning angler's ranking (and it will be triple for the Classic).  So while Crews was worth 320 points in regular Fantasy for this event, he was worth 620 in DTL.  That's too much bonus, I think -- I fear it reduces DTL to a game of "how many times can you pick the winner". 

 

 

[scaleface]

Got my picks in for Harris Chain

A  Co Johnston

B  Zaldain

C   Christie

D Hackney 

E  Iaconelli

[MN Fisher]

Ready here

[NittyGrittyBoy]

It's gonna be a slugfest. I predict it's gonna be bed fishing at its finest. 90lbs to win. 

 

Weather is warming and stabilizing, females will be moving shallow. It's gonna be a sight fishing game all weekend

 

I'll update my roster later

[MIbassyaker]

Going with sheer value plays initially for Harris Chain:

A. Walters

B. Powroznik

C. Christie

D. Seth

E. Ike

 

Will revisit on Wed and see if ownership % scares me off some of these picks.

[HaydenS]

Group	Angler	Place	Points
A	Brandon Palaniuk	20	235
B	Kyle Welcher	89	97
C	John Cox	4	325
D	Derek Hudnall	90	95
E	Bernie Schultz	31	213

 

Had Crews and Cox for DTL, finished 85% there.  

 

2 hours ago, MN Fisher said:

Ready here

Good luck with Zaldain, if he can’t get bit on the daindraft, he’s done for.  

?

[fishballer06]

The first event at St. Johns is in the books and man, what an event for John Crews. Wire to wire win, including that 28 pound bag on day one. We had 58 guys play along for the first event, which is awesome. Here is our top 5 in the group after the first event:

 

1 - PBuckley63

2 - ryekel

3 - FishslayerRI

4 - cecole

5 - Nittygritty

 

Now don't fall asleep already. We have the Harris Chain event starting in just 3 days, so get those picks made now!

[BassNJake]

58 people playing is awesome!!

except for all the competition for the Circuit City gift card

[FishinBuck07]

John Cox

Matty Wong

Matt Robertson

Jacob Foutz

Scott Martin

 

[PotatoLake]

This week, I'm not going to listen to outside influence, weather reports, etc. I changed my lineup so many times, and I settled on a really poor performing roster. Good job me. This week, I'm picking and then sticking to it. Let's see how that goes.

[Finessegenics]

Awkward start for me this season. 29.5th percentile for fantasy fishing but 99.5th percentile for Drain the Lake. 
 

This time I just chose whoever I thought was the best angler in each bucket, except for bucket A kind of. I think Drew cook will have another good event. 
 

Tie breaker weight is 83lbs 12 oz.
 

 

DTL: 

 

[BassNJake]

1 hour ago, Finessegenics said:

Awkward start for me this season. 29.5th percentile for fantasy fishing but 99.5th percentile for Drain the Lake. 
 

Wow!! That's awesome. What place(rank) does that put you in? 

[Finessegenics]

6 minutes ago, BassNJake said:

Wow!! That's awesome. What place(rank) does that put you in? 

 

70th overall! Does BASS give any prizes for DTL?

 

In some of the groups I joined, I am top 5 or top 10 for DTL so pretty cool. Im 4th in the Bass Talk Live group lol

[BassNJake]

8 minutes ago, Finessegenics said:

 

70th overall! Does BASS give any prizes for DTL?

 

In some of the groups I joined, I am top 5 or top 10 for DTL so pretty cool. Im 4th in the Bass Talk Live group lol

Top 40, still a great job !!

[NittyGrittyBoy]

I had made my picks earlier today and just went and looked and dang if all of them aren't high percentage picks now. 

 

 

[EWREX]

locked and loaded

 

[NittyGrittyBoy]

I really don't like high percentage picks, changed my roster a bit

 

[FishinBuck07]

2 hours ago, NittyGrittyBoy said:

I really don't like high percentage picks, changed my roster a bit

 

Maybe Welcher won't fall off the boat again!  haha

[fishballer06]

1 day and 14 hours to make picks, as of the time of this post. 

 

Do that research and make those picks!

[detroit1]

Picks are in, no research , as usual...

[MN Fisher]

3 minutes ago, detroit1 said:

Picks are in, no research , as usual...

Sounds like my foray into FF....what's research?

[scaleface]

I made a change and took both Johnston bros . I think one will finish in the top 10 , so I just picked   both to ensure I opted for the right one .

[MIbassyaker]

17 hours ago, MN Fisher said:

Sounds like my foray into FF....what's research?

 

My first couple seasons, i dug up extensive data on the anglers regarding lake history, recent performance, career performance, and so on, and ran regressions every event to see what factors predicted the number of fantasy points earned.

 

In the end, the ability to predict fantasy points was minimal.  The only factor that regularly came out as a significant predictor was overall ownership percentage (which is largely useless, as you are always competing against other owners), and the effect was always small.  I found that if I removed ownership percentage, the only other predictive factors I could ever find were whether the angler was obviously fishing home waters, and the total number of top-20 finishes they had in the last 5 years or so,  but these effects were even weaker and less consistent.  And this was before the MLF exodus, when the anglers fishing BASS had a  lot more historical information i could draw on.

 

I stopped doing these analyses because, in the end, they made no difference.

[TnRiver46]

42 minutes ago, MIbassyaker said:

 

My first couple seasons, i dug up extensive data on the anglers regarding lake history, recent performance, career performance, and so on, and ran regressions every event to see what factors predicted the number of fantasy points earned.

 

In the end, the ability to predict fantasy points was minimal.  The only factor that regularly came out as a significant predictor was overall ownership percentage (which is largely useless, as you are always competing against other owners), and the effect was always small.  I found that if I removed ownership percentage, the only other predictive factors I could ever find were whether the angler was obviously fishing home waters, and the total number of top-20 finishes they had in the last 5 years or so,  but these effects were even weaker and less consistent.  And this was before the MLF exodus, when the anglers fishing BASS had a  lot more historical information i could draw on.

 

I stopped doing these analyses because, in the end, they made no difference.

Remind me not to play against you hahaha

[GReb]

Got my picks in. I missed the first week.