I hate the weatherman

[Sphynx]

Not really, in the aggregate meteorologists are a fantastic addition to this little experiment we call society and generally contribute far more than they consume, but boy when they get it wrong they sure can smash some hopes and dreams worse than anything but a date with a good looking gal that goes horribly wrong can, ended up dodging two treble hook laden Rat-L-Trap's tonight and packed it in on account of unexpectedly high winds, anybody else familiar with the heartbreak that unexpected weather can cause? 

[TnRiver46]

It’s your fault for believing them! People just can’t get enough of their forecasts, no matter how bad. Would you keep eating at a restaurant that never cooked your food all the way???

 

just messing with you but people around here don’t realize how wrong they are, or don’t care. Or something, it’s maddening 

[ironbjorn]

They're accurate from a week out 80% of the time, accurate from 5 days out 90% of the time, and accurate almost 100% of the time within 24 hours. People focus more on the wrong times than they do on the countless correct time. Similar to how business owners know that they're far more likely to receive negative reviews than positive reviews. The reason being that when someone is pleased they think nothing more, and when someone is displeased they want to make it known. Those figures aren't mine; they're actual statistics. If your local weatherman is falling outside of the acceptable norm, petition for his or her replacement.

[MN Fisher]

1 minute ago, ironbjorn said:

If your local weatherman is falling outside of the acceptable norm, petition for his or her replacement.

I just ignore the 'local guys' and get my weather straight from the NWS...that's where the locals get their data anyway.

[TnRiver46]

9 minutes ago, ironbjorn said:

They're accurate from a week out 80% of the time, accurate from 5 days out 90% of the time, and accurate almost 100% of the time within 24 hours. People focus more on the wrong times than they do on the countless correct time. Similar to how business owners know that they're far more likely to receive negative reviews than positive reviews. The reason being that when someone is pleased they think nothing more, and when someone is displeased they want to make it known. Those figures aren't mine; they're actual statistics. If your local weatherman is falling outside of the acceptable norm, petition for his or her replacement.

Those statistics of yours seem a little fishy. 80% and 90% right on the dot, not 81.5% or something like that? Some conveniently round numbers. And “almost 100%”? I don’t call those statistics. Also, I imagine the numbers should vary by region 

[Chris Catignani]

As if we don't know it...fishing people tend to be a little more astute to the weather...and for good reason.

I am always checking wind direction and looking at a map...checking for that "ah-ha" moment.

[GreenPig]

Temperature is really all I need from them and they're pretty accurate with temps. Weather shy of a tornado I'm going fishing.

[DitchPanda]

Its not really how often they are wrong that's the issue...its how far off they are when its wrong. A few weeks back they said it was gonna be 80 and cloudy here...then the day came and it is was 96 and not a cloud in the sky. That's not even close. My hatred stems from pure jealousy. Who doesn't want a job where you can blatantly lie to people over and over and its completely acceptable?

[ironbjorn]

14 minutes ago, TnRiver46 said:

Those statistics of yours seem a little fishy. 80% and 90% right on the dot, not 81.5% or something like that? Some conveniently round numbers. And “almost 100%”? I don’t call those statistics. Also, I imagine the numbers should vary by region 

Everything is about. If you're requiring perfection, life is disappointing, and if you're requiring 81.8375728%, it's unreasonable.

 

https://www.wral.com/how-accurate-are-weather-forecasts/19645159/

 

forecast high of 80, most of the time the actual high will be between 78 and 83.

Longer-range forecasts are less accurate. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time, and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, beyond 10 days, a forecast is only right about half the time.

Beyond the numbers, the perception of the weather will never accurately match the reality of the weather. This is because forecast parameters include a good amount of probability and chance.

For instance, meteorologists use percentages to describe the chance of precipitation occurring at any point you select in the area. Mathematically, the percentage comes from the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area multiplied by the percent of the area that will receive measurable precipitation.

Today, we often can be 100 percent confident that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area.

 

Google is available for more information. I don't argue with the scientists with my anecdotal evidence.

[islandbass]

Lol. Unless there is lightning, why would I let the weather stop me from fishing. Screw that. I’m out the door. 
 

They're only slightly better at predictions than horoscope tellers. Word. Now go out and fish.  ?

[jbsoonerfan]

Here is a little known weather fact that I just recently learned. When you see a weather map of your area and it says 50% chance of rain in the shaded area, it doesn't mean that there is a 50% chance that area will see rain. It actually means there is a 100% chance that 50% of that area will receive rain. That blew my mind and it was confirmed to me by a local meteorologist I spoke to one day at a softball tournament. 

[TnRiver46]

35 minutes ago, ironbjorn said:

Everything is about. If you're requiring perfection, life is disappointing, and if you're requiring 81.8375728%, it's unreasonable.

 

https://www.wral.com/how-accurate-are-weather-forecasts/19645159/

 

forecast high of 80, most of the time the actual high will be between 78 and 83.

Longer-range forecasts are less accurate. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time, and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, beyond 10 days, a forecast is only right about half the time.

Beyond the numbers, the perception of the weather will never accurately match the reality of the weather. This is because forecast parameters include a good amount of probability and chance.

For instance, meteorologists use percentages to describe the chance of precipitation occurring at any point you select in the area. Mathematically, the percentage comes from the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area multiplied by the percent of the area that will receive measurable precipitation.

Today, we often can be 100 percent confident that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area.

 

Google is available for more information. I don't argue with the scientists with my anecdotal evidence.

Google is a giant pile of misinformation about 63% of the time. Here’s a statistic: the weatherperson “almost” never gets the forecast correct 

[ironbjorn]

2 minutes ago, TnRiver46 said:

Google is a giant pile of misinformation about 63% of the time. Here’s a statistic: the weatherperson “almost” never gets the forecast correct 

Got a source for that? Seems a little fishy.

 

I'm not arguing with NOAA numbers. I'll lose. 

 

 

[TnRiver46]

Just now, ironbjorn said:

Got a source for that? Seems a little fishy.

 

I'm not arguing with NOAA numbers. I'll lose. 

 

 

The words about and almost eliminated my need for a source 

[ironbjorn]

1 minute ago, TnRiver46 said:

The words about and almost eliminated my need for a source 

Oh. I was able to back up my "about" and "almost" but ok.

[Kenny Yi]

not a weather-fluent person myself, but weather apps always seem wrong when I need them to be right

[Big Hands]

1 hour ago, TnRiver46 said:

Those statistics of yours seem a little fishy. 80% and 90% right on the dot, not 81.5% or something like that? Some conveniently round numbers. And “almost 100%”? I don’t call those statistics. Also, I imagine the numbers should vary by region 

Savaged! Ouch ;~)

[Sphynx]

2 hours ago, ironbjorn said:

They're accurate from a week out 80% of the time, accurate from 5 days out 90% of the time, and accurate almost 100% of the time within 24 hours. People focus more on the wrong times than they do on the countless correct time. Similar to how business owners know that they're far more likely to receive negative reviews than positive reviews. The reason being that when someone is pleased they think nothing more, and when someone is displeased they want to make it known. Those figures aren't mine; they're actual statistics. If your local weatherman is falling outside of the acceptable norm, petition for his or her replacement.

Well, I checked the weather 90 minutes before I got off work to head to the river, they forecast 9mph wind which isn't exactly great, but it's manageable, by the time I got to the river it had changed to gusts north of 20mph, sustaining high teens, I am nearly certain 90 minutes is within your 24 hour limit, and I'm also pretty sure that a 100+% increase is outside of your general wiggle room theory, the weather man flat out missed today, no two ways about it. 

 

Also, as far as petitioning for the weatherman to be removed, I don't happen to have a better solution to replace them with, so as frustrating as it is, 50/50 or whatever it works out to is still better than "no d**n clue at all"

[Bluebasser86]

I got stuck out in a nasty storm last year thanks to a bad forecast. No chance or mention of any rain, let alone bad storms. I was at the wrong end of a heavily timbered 200 acre lake in my johnboat that only had a 30lb transom motor and a 45lb bow mount trolling motor. Literally about as far as I could get from the ramp when it first rumbled out of nowhere. I put my motors on high and headed back but navigating around all the trees was time consuming and it got to me when I still had a few hundred yards to go and the main lake to cross. It was not a fun experience. 

 

[Biglittle8]

If I was wrong as many times in my job as weather forecasters, you wouldn't want to fly on a commercial jet. Just saying.

[TnRiver46]

4 hours ago, Sphynx said:

Well, I checked the weather 90 minutes before I got off work to head to the river, they forecast 9mph wind which isn't exactly great, but it's manageable, by the time I got to the river it had changed to gusts north of 20mph, sustaining high teens, I am nearly certain 90 minutes is within your 24 hour limit, and I'm also pretty sure that a 100+% increase is outside of your general wiggle room theory, the weather man flat out missed today, no two ways about it. 

 

Also, as far as petitioning for the weatherman to be removed, I don't happen to have a better solution to replace them with, so as frustrating as it is, 50/50 or whatever it works out to is still better than "no d**n clue at all"

As long as people keep watching, they just keep selling advertising. It’s a vicious cycle 

[A-Jay]

Bad weather drove a significant portion of my past professional life for a long time. 

At this point I am happy if and when the forecasted wind direction is at least relatively close as it routinely determines where I fish.

The rest, I can figure out when I get there.

A-Jay

[gunsinger]

I jokingly call them today’s “false prophets” but, truly, I think most of them do the best they can with the information at hand. There is only One who really knows what the weather will do and He isn’t found on TV. And I don’t mean Jim Cantorre. ?

[Mobasser]

My dad used to say, " A weatherman is one job where you can be wrong much of the time, and still not get fired".

[Spankey]

Our local news is pretty accurate, people who do it are educated and come off professionally. Not just look good in a dress or suits. 
 

It’s like the 50% thing. 50% chance of heavy showers in the early am. Well I’m going because there is that other 50% that I’m staying dry and I’ll take that chance. If I’m already out on the water and a big rain event moves in for awhile I  duck up under a bridge and anchor up there for awhile. All the more reason to fish bridge piling for awhile. I’m not a big fan of getting soaked before I’m in the water or before my first cast. 
 

My home fishing areas of the river are gonna take a pounding and flooding big time with this remains of the hurricane. Rains moved in this morning. News was covering how water rescue teams were prepared. Than they always put on a few of the rich folks who live on the river gripe about how much water damage they are gonna have. I’m pretty sure a dock or two will become new fish structure. 
 

But I’m not gonna make light of these situation. You guys through the south have taken poundings worse than I will most likely ever see. My fear is winds. I’m up high enough were floods may not become big issues. Winds can. 
 

But the river and lake will settle down and get back to normal. I find it hard to really complain too much when other fisherman on here may have been devastated by local events.