First cast jinx?

[Koz]

3 hours ago, newriverfisherman1953 said:

One thing I’ve never done is catch one on my last cast!!

 I have. Maybe I'm tired or it's late in the day and I just want to end on a good note.

[Catt]

On 3/5/2021 at 7:44 PM, Koz said:

then for the rest of the 45 minutes I was out there I didn't even sniff a strike.

 

Now that's some perseverance!

 

Nahh! Don't believe that nonsense ?

[NYWayfarer]

Superstitious nonsense! However who am I to tempt fate.
 

I always make a short cast to a place that looks fish free before I start my session. That gets the first cast out of the way ?

[cheezyridr]

i rarely catch a fish on the first cast, but when i do it seems to indicate a good day is in store for me. 

 

17 hours ago, N Florida Mike said:

NO.

But I did catch a fish on my first cast with a whopper plopper. 

I have never caught another one on it so...?

 

i have had tons of hits on the whopper plopper, but i have yet to actually hook a fish with one. it's getting to the point where i don't throw it, in favor of a buzzbait or a stickfish

[Paul Roberts]

? warning...

 

This is a natural statistical error. We don't weigh events evenly. And we come by it honestly, bc to ignore the power of possible events could be disastrous. But we don't always have a good handle on weighing the relative power or significance of things. And we tend to err on the side of caution.

 

Thus... measurement! As things get complicated though (inc number of variables at play), we end up measuring probabilities -the world of statistics- and spend more time refining questions than expecting pat answers. Even though pat answers are expeditious, and/or comforting.

 

So... the first cast (of the day) seems to be given some kind of extra weight over all other casts. Understandable. Don't know about you, but I've often got pretty high expectations at that point. And, subsequent casts after a catch -anytime- are most often a let-down. Unless, you've hit the mother-lode!! Which... can happen.

 

That said, there can be some truth to the power of the first cast. Repeated casts can spook fish, so it often pays to make that first cast count. If you've ever raced the crowds to be first on a good steelhead run at the crack of dawn, to hit that very real "first light bite", you'll have this driven into your bones. What was it steelhead sage Lani Waller once said, "Be first. Or be different" (another kind of "first"). And there are many other first-cast scenarios that are known. But there are also repeated-cast scenarios with power too. 

 

Yeah, it's just not a simple answer. K.I.S.S. is a great, and comfortable, idea. If you've done the work to make it effective -if effective is what you are after.

[Biglittle8]

On 3/6/2021 at 8:45 PM, Koz said:

 I have. Maybe I'm tired or it's late in the day and I just want to end on a good note.

If I catch one on my "Last cast" I can't help myself, I have to throw 20 or 30 more! ?

[Catt]

On 3/7/2021 at 6:30 AM, NYWayfarer said:

Superstitious nonsense! However who am I to tempt fate.
 

 

Don't believe in fate either!

 

I don't put any trust in the traditions of men.

[tander]

On 3/6/2021 at 4:26 PM, newriverfisherman1953 said:

One thing I’ve never done is catch one on my last cast!!

Actually I have. I was fishing a club tournament and needed one more fish for a limit. I had 3 minutes to be back at the ramp or I would be late. Pulled up to a spot and made 2 casts and caught a fish on the second cast. Put it in the livewell and made it to the ramp with 30 seconds to spare. Would like to say I won the tournament but I didn't, came in 4th I think.

[MIbassyaker]

Fishing is absolutely loaded with experiences that act as fuel for superstition. There are a number of well-known biases and illusions that can cause the perception of a "jinx" like this.

 

What Paul mentions above is a version of the Primacy Effect, where an initial event is over-weighted in importance compared to subsequent effects.

 

Another is Illusory Correlation, in which people believe they see a relationship that isn't really there because they are not paying attention to all occurrences of an event, and only focus on the ones with unusual or distinctive outcomes. For instance, you notice when fishing is bad for the remainder of the outing after getting a bite on the first cast, but you ignore all the times fishing was just as bad, or worse, after NOT getting bit on the first cast.

 

There is also the Availability Heuristic, where you misjudge something as being highly likely just because it's easy to remember, imagine, or think of an example.  However, often what makes something memorable or vivid to imagine is precisely that it's distinctive because it's NOT likely. getting "jinxed" from first-cast success is very frustrating, because your expectations were raised, and then violated...and so it becomes more memorable than all the times fishing was bad including the first cast.

 

 

[Michigander]

5 minutes ago, MIbassyaker said:

Fishing is absolutely loaded with experiences that act as fuel for superstition. There are a number of known illusions that can cause the perception of a "jinx" like this.

 

What Paul mentioned is a version of the Primacy Effect, where an initial event is over-weighted in importance compared to subsequent effects.

 

Another is illusory correlation, in which people believe they see a relationship that isn't really there because they are not paying attention to all occurrences of an event, and only focus on the ones with unusual or distinctive outcomes. For instance, you notice when fishing is bad for the remainder of the outing after getting a bite on the first cast, but you ignore all the times fishing was just as bad, or worse, after NOT getting bit on the first cast.

 

There is also the availability heuristic, where you misjudge something as being highly likely just because it's easy to remember, imagine, or think of an example.  However, often what makes something memorable or vivid to imagine is precisely that it's distinctive because it's NOT likely. getting "jinxed" from first-cast success is very frustrating, because your expectations were raised, and then violated...and so it becomes more memorable than all the times fishing was bad including the first cast.

 

 

I prefer to to utilize mitigation theory to minimize the potential impact of the mysticism quotient. ?

[Alex from GA]

Usually I'll throw to a place where the chances are slim I'll catch a fish but sometimes I do and it hasn't been detrimental.  We winter on a pond in FL and the first cast is the best chance to catch a fish.  I caught one on the 2nd cast this morning.

[schplurg]

No superstition. If I have a crappy day it's because I suck. If I have a good day it's because I'm a pro quality angler. I don't blame or credit the supernatural for either.

[Koz]

11 hours ago, Alex from GA said:

Usually I'll throw to a place where the chances are slim I'll catch a fish but sometimes I do and it hasn't been detrimental.  We winter on a pond in FL and the first cast is the best chance to catch a fish.  I caught one on the 2nd cast this morning.

Are you David Carradine? ???

 

Let’s see who gets that joke.

[OKCPERCH]

Nope I love catching one on the first cast. Although it rarely happens!

[geo g]

I am not superstitious, but I always think about the jinx when I catch one on the first cast.  When your in a uncontested area the odds are pretty good on the first cast, if you fish the bait slowly, and turn off the electronics.  Everything is more detectable to the resident bass, because of the tranquility of the targeted area.  Approach the area in stealth mode, I often let the wind slowly drift me into the area of choice.  I love first cast bass, but the Jinx always comes to mind!

[geo g]

On 3/11/2021 at 11:32 AM, Alex from GA said:

Usually I'll throw to a place where the chances are slim I'll catch a fish but sometimes I do and it hasn't been detrimental.  We winter on a pond in FL and the first cast is the best chance to catch a fish.  I caught one on the 2nd cast this morning.

 

 

 

That's one hell of an outfit.  You are assured no other fisherman will approach your area!  Lol

[Bankc]

I don't believe in luck.  If I did, I couldn't take credit for most of the best things I've accomplished in life!  

[TnRiver46]

14 minutes ago, Bankc said:

I don't believe in luck.  If I did, I couldn't take credit for most of the best things I've accomplished in life!  

I always deflect all credit for any accomplishments elsewhere, that way nobody expects anything from me haha

[roadwarrior]

I expect a bite on every cast. I have done that a couple of times fishing for bluegill,

white bass and trout. About fifteen years ago I caught 9 consecutive bass and 11

out of fifteen casts on a Rapala X-Rap. My best day ever was with my best friend

at Pickwick. I was the "net boy". I caught the first striper, then he caught 19 in a row.

They quit biting and the score was 19-1. Our big fish was 28 lbs and all of the rest

were 15-20 lbs. We were done at 9:30 in the morning.

[Deephaven]

Nope, don't believe it at all.  Sucks when it happens though.

[MGF]

On 3/10/2021 at 5:41 PM, MIbassyaker said:

Fishing is absolutely loaded with experiences that act as fuel for superstition. There are a number of well-known biases and illusions that can cause the perception of a "jinx" like this.

 

What Paul mentions above is a version of the Primacy Effect, where an initial event is over-weighted in importance compared to subsequent effects.

 

Another is Illusory Correlation, in which people believe they see a relationship that isn't really there because they are not paying attention to all occurrences of an event, and only focus on the ones with unusual or distinctive outcomes. For instance, you notice when fishing is bad for the remainder of the outing after getting a bite on the first cast, but you ignore all the times fishing was just as bad, or worse, after NOT getting bit on the first cast.

 

There is also the Availability Heuristic, where you misjudge something as being highly likely just because it's easy to remember, imagine, or think of an example.  However, often what makes something memorable or vivid to imagine is precisely that it's distinctive because it's NOT likely. getting "jinxed" from first-cast success is very frustrating, because your expectations were raised, and then violated...and so it becomes more memorable than all the times fishing was bad including the first cast.

 

 

Of course...and as a measurement/automation guy from way back I agree. But, sometimes the silly superstitions are kind of fun.

 

For example, I always heard it said that it was "bad luck" to ski behind a fishing boat. Though it was never specified I always figured that it meant that bad things could happen if you try to fish a half ounce double willow blade spinner bait while towing a skier. I think we could write the equation.

 

I've seen several people really get rattled when this particular trait of the universe is pointed out to them.

 

I still hope to catch a fish on the first cast...why would I make the cast if I didn't want to catch a fish.

[Trox]

Was in a tournament once and the only fish I caught all day was on the first cast. But then again, the last time I had a banana in the boat I caught my PB so...

 

 

[Bubba 460]

I would have no problem with a 10 pounder on the first cast. I have caught an 8 pounder on the first cast with a 12 inch worm ~ liked that too.

[haggard]

No. When it comes to fish catching stats I prefer to base them in logic and science - for example when you drive past a field and all the cows are standing up, it will be a good fishing day.

 

[Alex from GA]

I caught one on the first cast Tuesday and didn't do very well after that, only about 8.  I also had clothes on and was in a boat.