Best way to tell what makes the difference?

[mheichelbech]

I just posted on another thread about fishing a lake last year with a friend in which I caught 3 bass over 5 pounds on 3 different jerk baits.  My friend, fishing the same or similar jerk baits, caught zero.  That was the only 3 fish we caught that day.  What was the difference?  The way I fished them (I think we were doing it similarly), the line I used vs his, or just luck that I happened to throw in the right places at the right times???  No idea.   There have been many occasions when I wasn't catching fish on one type of lure, spinnerbait/buzzbait and switched to a different type lure, Manns Baby Minus One and started catching fish.  On other occasions such as my first example, it seems to be really hard to tell.  

How do you judge, on those tougher days, what makes the difference?  On the first example, we tried jigs with no luck and only caught the 3 on the jerkbait.  Had we not switched maybe we wouldn't have caught any or if we had started out with jerkbaits maybe we would have caught more...some days certain colors may make a difference...but when do you say that a specific lure or color lure was the difference in the pattern on tougher days?  For example, if you were fishing and catching nothing, changed up and caught one but then didn't catch another one for an hour, do you switch up again?  To me this is the toughest part of fishing...especially if you know you are around fish and how do you attribute success, or lack thereof to being around fish or not being around fish or being around fish but not throwing what they wanted?

For the guys that are good at figuring these things out, what is your thought process?

[J Francho]

Three fish was the difference

 

Seriously, though I think you need to have something closer to 20:1 to really have an observation.

[Tennessee Boy]

I agree with @J Francho.  This is an aspect of fishing that I think most anglers fail miserably at.   If you’re mathematically inclined it’s easy to calculate the odds that it was just luck.  There is a 25% chance that if you flip a coin three times it will come up the same all three times.  So the same goes for fishing.  If two guys go fishing and fish equally there is a 25% chance that one of them will catch the first three fish just from luck.  With coins everyone assumes it was luck.  With fishing everyone wants to find a reason. 

[Team9nine]

Fishing is all a game of probabilities (at least, that's how I view it). On any given cast, with any given bait, you either will or won't get bit. Over the course of a day, if you can stack a few more probabilities in your favor (increase specific probability rates or percentages), you should end up with a more productive day. There are a lot of variables at play, all with their own probability.

 

For example, in another thread, I mentioned that one of the 2 primary factors in why I own/throw whatever colors I have in my box for any given bait is largely based around what is pretty much "proven" as a standard color option. So, a black and blue jig is almost a universal thing. A green pumpkin soft plastic is too, as are things like shad or crawfish colored crankbaits, a white and chartreuse spinnerbait, or a black or white buzzbait. I'm sure you can name a few others. Day in and day out, those colors get bit most everywhere in the country. As such, I tend to have one of those standard color patterns tied on when I'm fishing, and I rarely change during the course of a day.

 

So here's a logical way to think about lure color based on probabilities.  If you're not getting bit, it's probably not because of color, but it also might not hurt your chances if you changed. Things can't get worse, right, so do as you like - I likely wouldn't change myself. I'd rather change locations, baits, depth, speed, etc. before changing color to try and increase my probabilities - unless someone else in the boat with me throwing the exact same bait, but in a different color pattern is getting all the bites. If I'm with someone throwing a similar bait (different color) and they're getting bit and I'm not, then it doesn't hurt to change to whatever color they are using because my probabilities will likely either stay the same or go up - very little downside to changing color in that case.

 

On the other hand, if you are getting at least a few bites, changing color could go one of several ways - your bite rate might not change at all (neutral), or it could get better, but it also could get worse, and you actually might stop getting bit. In this case, which is likely the most common scenario for most while out fishing (getting a few bites now and then), I don't gamble and change my probabilities in that regard because there is a worse outcome if I'm wrong.

 

So that's my take on the matter. You can view each change you mentioned as a change in probability. If you're not getting bit, and you change something and then quickly get bit, that was a good change. Doesn't hurt to change if you're not getting bites as the negative consequences are low (or even zero). On the other hand, if you are getting some bites, it becomes more a game of figuring out whether that was a wise decision (to change) or not, and I'm more likely to switch back, or switch again, more quickly if things seem to go negative. Overall, I try and change as little as possible - YMMV

[Smells like fish]

Put 5 of us here using the same lure together and we will all fish it somewhat differently. Many years ago, a friend and I parked along side a stretch of River, he went upstream and I downstream using same balsa jerkbaits, same reels rods and line. When we met back up he was saying how it was a bad day and they just wouldn’t bite. In that two hours I had caught 16 or 18 on the jerkbait. 

[DitchPanda]

Hard to tell the difference on those tough days like mentioned above. 3 to 1 isn't a significant enough beating to really hang your hat on anything. Maybe you cast to prime spots that day before your buddy without really even recognizing them? Need a more one sided affair to start to boil it down to what bait,area or cadence made the difference. I've had days when I outfished or have been outfished by buddies 2-1 or 3-1 where I don't really feel like much could have been done by either party...its those days when your buddy catches 2 and you catch 8 or 10 or 23 when you can disect it.

Btw...there may be nothing more satisfying then going out with a buddy...both of you jacked up and ready to crank on em and you lay a good ol proper a#$ whooping on them. Makes a man feel good.

[roadwarrior]

It's simple for me: 20 casts and then something different. Change of lure, not just color.

[Deleted account]

23 minutes ago, roadwarrior said:

It's simple for me: 20 casts and then something different. Change of lure, not just color.

I'm sending you a fidget spinner...

[ironbjorn]

31 minutes ago, roadwarrior said:

It's simple for me: 20 casts and then something different. Change of lure, not just color.

I've thrown the same lure to the same spot more than 20 times before I finally got bit. Maybe I'm hard headed but I think my willingness to do so picks up fish others leave behind.

[detroit1]

I learned that fish have 3 moods on willingness to bite. Positive, nuetral, and negative.  ironbjorn just added a fourth. "get that xxxxxxx thing away from me."

[papajoe222]

It hasn't been asked yet, so I'll be the first; Were your jerkbaits male or female?

[A-Jay]

14 minutes ago, papajoe222 said:

It hasn't been asked yet, so I'll be the first; Were your jerkbaits male or female?

Oh No ~ I don't know how to tell !

Does it make that much of a difference ?

I could be in big trouble on this one . . . 

A-Jay

[Derek1]

59 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

Oh No ~ I don't know how to tell !

Does it make that much of a difference ?

I could be in big trouble on this one . . . 

A-Jay

Could you imagine. 
Im going into business tomorrow selling pre sexed 110’s. 
the juniors are to small to tell gonna have to roll the dice on them. 

[Catt]

I've said it far years & will continue saying it.

 

Until someone sits down & interviews a bass some of these questions will never be answered.

[Mobasser]

I attended a seminar many years ago by Larry Nixon on structure fishing. One thing he said that stuck with me was that he thought it would be impossible to duplicate the exact retrieve of another fisherman, even with the same bait, rod/reel, weight etc. It could come down to small details.                                                          Guys fish differently, and, whatever they're doing on a given day could be working well, while your not catching fish.                                  Good question with this post, but if we all knew the correct answer here, we'd be catching way more fish on every trip. Trying to figure out this piece of the puzzle is part of what makes fishing so much fun.

 

[Spankey]

14 hours ago, ironbjorn said:

I've thrown the same lure to the same spot more than 20 times before I finally got bit. Maybe I'm hard headed but I think my willingness to do so picks up fish others leave behind.

Not sure what kind of bait you were throwing but a bass may have bitten out of anger not feeding. I’ve had that happen and I believe they did not want it in their territory. 

[ironbjorn]

11 minutes ago, Spankey said:

Not sure what kind of bait you were throwing but a bass may have bitten out of anger not feeding. I’ve had that happen and I believe they did not want it in their territory. 

Several. I'm not talking about a one time event. I also think you're right about them being angry rather than hungry, but whether they bite because I tick them off or because I fooled their hungry stomachs, it doesn't matter to me.

[scaleface]

My cousin and I were fishing team tourneys . One tournament we brought in a limit and I caught every one of them  . Good enough for third place . We were using the same baits . Very next tourney he caught the limit and I wore the collar . Same lures . Took second that time .

[Spankey]

1 minute ago, ironbjorn said:

Several. I'm not talking about a one time event. I also think you're right about them being angry rather than hungry, but whether they bite because I tick them off or because I fooled their hungry stomachs, it doesn't matter to me.

I agree. This has happened on occasion for me also. 
 

When I’m out I really don’t care what anyone else is throwing or doing but if I see where they did not get bit or catch anything in an area I do want to throw in. I don’t let that keep me from hitting it after they are gone. I’m alway ready to run a Rat-L-Trap through those area. Feels good to get in one of those areas where a guy was at for a half an hour or an hour and you play that spot and rip one out of of it. 

[Bankbeater]

Could have been anything that triggered them to bite.  Did you catch all 3 around the same location? They might have just been cruising through when they came across your bait.

[king fisher]

That is why I force myself to try different lures, retrieves, sizes, and colors, when the fish are on a good bite.  The only way to tell if one method works better than another, is when you are catching lots of fish.  If it is slow it may be impossible to tell if the few fish you catch is lure, or luck. 

[roadwarrior]

18 minutes ago, king fisher said:

That is why I force myself to try different lures, retrieves, sizes, and colors, when the fish are on a good bite.  The only way to tell if one method works better than another, is when you are catching lots of fish.  If it is slow it may be impossible to tell if the few fish you catch is lure, or luck. 

I like to try new lures during a good bite, too.

[A-Jay]

58 minutes ago, king fisher said:

That is why I force myself to try different lures, retrieves, sizes, and colors, when the fish are on a good bite.  The only way to tell if one method works better than another, is when you are catching lots of fish.  If it is slow it may be impossible to tell if the few fish you catch is lure, or luck. 

 

40 minutes ago, roadwarrior said:

I like to try new lures during a good bite, too.

 

I used to do this all the time.

I STOPPED.

In the long run, it just seemed that there was more to lose than to gain.

Seemed I was better served to continue to fish what I know their eating,

than to 'spend' so much of the hard earned / productive / often short lived time and or spot

trying to learn what they won't.

Plus our guide in Mexico yelled at me the first time I did it there.

I was very hurt by that. 

?

A-Jay

 

[king fisher]

4 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

 

 

I used to do this all the time.

I STOPPED.

In the long run, it just seemed that there was more to lose than to gain.

Seemed I was better served to continuing to fish what I know their eating,

than to 'spend' so much of the hard earned / productive / often short lived time and or spot

trying to learn what they won't.

Plus our guide in Mexico yelled at me the first time I did it there.

I was very hurt by that. 

?

A-Jay

 

Tell your guide to get over it.  You are there to have fun, not just catch fish. If his guide ego at the dock at the end of the day is more important than your enjoyment, get a different guide.  If trying different lures during a good bite makes you happy, than that is what you should do.  I have guided most of my life.  Many times I had someone try their favorite local lure, even though I didn't think it would work, and I didn't feel we had the time to screw around with new techniques.  Most of the time they quickly switched back to what me the professional wanted to use, but their have been many instances where I learned a new technique or lure that came in handy another day when fishing was slow.  Most of the time I prefer to have one fisherman keep using what is working and have another, or myself experiment.  Most of the time it has been the opposite for me.  The client almost cries when I switch out his hot lure with something else.  I have to tell him the only reason I know his lure works is because of me switching to that lure with another anglers lure in the past.

     One time a clients new lure was better than dynamite.  The next day my guests couldn't believe how much they out fished everyone else.  I said don't thank me.  Thank the guest I had yesterday, who took the risk and tried something new during a hot bite.  You can always switch back to the traditional technique.  If you only try a new lure when the fish don't want want your favorite, you may never know if it can out perform you favorite.

   My favorite part of fishing is discovering new places, lures, and techniques.  If given the choice between catching fish every cast and experimenting, I will choose experimenting most of the time.  I would tell my guide I am having fun, and understand that it isn't his fault if my switching from what he recommends will probably mean less fish.  I know it can be frustrating for a guide, but in the end it is your trip, not his.

[roadwarrior]

When I fish with a guide I follow his lead...That's why I hired him!