WVU-SCPA Posted February 20, 2020 Posted February 20, 2020 Anyone following this? I find it very interesting on how manufacturing and supply chains will be impacted in the coming months. The Chinese supplier I deal with on a weekly basis has had their plant closed for the last 5 weeks with plans of starting back up next week. Come April and May there might be stoppage/shortage in any material goods that were lacking in a domestic inventory....fishing items included.
GTN-NY Posted February 20, 2020 Posted February 20, 2020 I was just thinking about this as I sit on the couch for the third day wuth the flu. 1
Super User gim Posted February 20, 2020 Super User Posted February 20, 2020 I've been following it from the beginning. I work for the federal government and it greatly affects not only our travel to China, but some other countries in southeast Asia. If they don't start getting it under control, the summer olympics in Tokyo in August might be affected.
Super User slonezp Posted February 20, 2020 Super User Posted February 20, 2020 I was told by one of my suppliers this week to expect delays of up to 4 weeks.
BASS302 Posted February 23, 2020 Posted February 23, 2020 Here's a link to "Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE": https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
txchaser Posted February 23, 2020 Posted February 23, 2020 1) there's not much solid information on transmission, how long it can last outside the body, etc. As an example, today they found what appeared to be active virus in urine samples. Depending on how a bunch of variables play out, it could infect a lot of people. What would happen if 10% of the world had go-to-the-hospital level flu, corona or no? 2) While bleak, looking at recoveries/deaths may be more useful than infected/deaths. I expect the real answer is somewhere in between the two. 3) It is probable that well-equipped western medicine will be able to manage serious cases very well, as long as it doesn't get overwhelmed. Other places in the world may have a much tougher time. 4) I don't think anyone believes China's numbers, but no one knows how off they really are. 5) With all that said a "reliable source with knowledge on the ground" told me yes, supply chain will be slow, but factories are turning back on. The four to six weeks mentioned above is consistent. Net net, there's a decent amount of risk. No need to freak, but I wouldn't go to China anytime soon either.
Global Moderator TnRiver46 Posted February 23, 2020 Global Moderator Posted February 23, 2020 My brother just returned home from Vietnam healthy, although I don’t believe it was a big concern there
Super User jimmyjoe Posted February 23, 2020 Super User Posted February 23, 2020 6 hours ago, MN Fisher said: Add the hype the media is putting on it, and people run scared -... That explains 90% of it, right there. jj
Super User Sam Posted February 23, 2020 Super User Posted February 23, 2020 No, not really concerned as I am ready to roll when the weather permits but I did give up Corona beer just to be one the safe side. 4
ike8120 Posted February 23, 2020 Posted February 23, 2020 People should be concerned about the Flu. 1
Dirtyeggroll Posted February 23, 2020 Posted February 23, 2020 The extreme response is likely primarily based on several factors. 1) Uncertainty - the current burden and natural course of this virus is unknown. China is a densely populated country and there is good reason to believe (economic being one of them) that China has underestimated and/or downplayed the burden of the disease. Also, we only have information about months at max of what will happen with the virus. 2) Another burden even equal to the size of the flu is a huge burden. The flu places a huge morbidity, mortality and economic burden on the world. The possibility of that burden being duplicated is absolutely demanding of a sense of urgency and drastic measures to stop that. The potential economic ramifications of duplicating the flu burden are far more than whatever short term ramifications may come from the current “panic.” 3) The incubation period of the virus is long and silent. A person can carry and be contagious with the virus for up to two weeks before showing symptoms. This means the virus can spread extremely rapidly without detection. Hopefully, spread and burden of this virus will be stopped and it will be just another (less severe) SARS or MERS of the past. For now though, given what little we know of it, high alert and drastic measures to prevent the spread are extremely important. For now it is a prepare for the worst, hope for the best situation. On 2/23/2020 at 5:07 AM, ike8120 said: People should be concerned about the Flu. On 2/22/2020 at 8:52 PM, MN Fisher said: Fear Factor. The Flu is 'old and known', Coronavirus is 'new and scary'. Add the hype the media is putting on it, and people run scared - despite it being less serious in some ways than the Flu. I agree people SHOULD be concerned about the flu and agree that the media has well taken advantage to hype the coronavirus for views. However, as stated above even duplicating the flu would have severe ramifications and extreme measures should be taken to prevent that. Based on what has happened in China, this is not a virus we want to spread unchecked. 3
Super User NHBull Posted February 23, 2020 Super User Posted February 23, 2020 The reason for the concern is that a higher rate of transmission for the disease is far higher than the flu.....by almost 300%. I will look for the cdc release. It is likely that 1 person will infect 2.9 people while the flu is at 1.4. The biggest concern now is economical 1
DanielG Posted February 23, 2020 Posted February 23, 2020 The flu has a lot of people either taking vaccines, or have had flu's before and when they get it it's not as devastating or they don't get it at all. The corona virus has no stops.... So, if 1000 people get the flue at 5%, 50 people die. At the same time that the 1000 get the flu, lets say 10,000 (guess) will get the corono virus. At only 2%, but 200 die. Even a low percentage of a large number of people is a lot of deaths. Without a large number of people being vaccinated, it spreads from person to person much more easily as everyone can become a carrier. No stops, it just travels across the country like ripples on the water.
Super User gim Posted February 23, 2020 Super User Posted February 23, 2020 The 2% mortality rate reported has mostly targeted a very specific demographic group of people too: older men with existing health conditions. If you are healthy, you do not have an existing health condition, and you contract it, there is a good chance you will eventually recover from it.
Michigander Posted February 23, 2020 Posted February 23, 2020 This is not The Coronavirus, it is just A Coronavirus. That being said, one of the reasons it is scary is that it's an unknown quantity. Because it is new, we haven't mapped its behavior like influenza and therefore don't have as many tools to deal with infection like we do with influenza. If the world can stop this new virus from getting a foothold, then it could be wiped out. Also, if CoVID-19 mutates into something like MERS (also a Coronavirus, with 37% mortality) then you have a real problem. Additionally, the Chinese may be more resistant to CoVID-19 because they have other Coronaviruses in Asia. Maybe other parts of the world don't have that natural resistance.
Super User Mobasser Posted February 25, 2020 Super User Posted February 25, 2020 Again, we can thank the media here. The way these things are watched and reported can scare people very badly. 1
DanielG Posted February 28, 2020 Posted February 28, 2020 Recent reports seem to indicate that the mortality rate for Corona is much much higher than influenza 2.3% compared to 0.1% and we lose about 40,000 people each year to the flu in the US alone. It could be many factors more for Corona. "In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., " On 2/24/2020 at 5:54 PM, Mobasser said: Again, we can thank the media here. The way these things are watched and reported can scare people very badly. Japan just closed all education institutions in the entire country for 30 days.... That seems pretty scary. They haven't been reporting infections from this that long either. I wonder where this is all going.... kinda scary I think.
Super User Boomstick Posted February 28, 2020 Super User Posted February 28, 2020 I think of all the potentially worse epidemics we've missed in the past and I can't see this one really living up to the hype. 5
Super User Boomstick Posted February 28, 2020 Super User Posted February 28, 2020 On 2/23/2020 at 6:11 AM, Sam said: No, not really concerned as I am ready to roll when the weather permits but I did give up Corona beer just to be one the safe side. I'm waiting for NattyIceVirus, now there's one to be afraid of! 6
Super User Boomstick Posted February 28, 2020 Super User Posted February 28, 2020 ^ On a related note, I saw this today: https://www.beeradvocate.com/community/threads/people-are-scared-of-buying-corona-beer-amid-coronavirus-fears.635159/ 2
Super User J Francho Posted February 28, 2020 Super User Posted February 28, 2020 Like the flu, this new virus is contagious before the infected show any symptoms, and at whatever the mortality rate China is reporting (I don't trust them at all), this could be pretty ugly. Experts are saying it's a case of when, not if it hits the rest of the world. It's already considered a pandemic. Like was said before, it's a much more deadly than the flu, and there is no cure for it.
Super User deaknh03 Posted February 29, 2020 Super User Posted February 29, 2020 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ER1R-UUUwAI7j0v?format=jpg&name=small
Super User slonezp Posted February 29, 2020 Super User Posted February 29, 2020 31 minutes ago, deaknh03 said: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ER1R-UUUwAI7j0v?format=jpg&name=small Beat me to the punch
Super User J Francho Posted February 29, 2020 Super User Posted February 29, 2020 It’s all good Glenn. saw them at there are confirmed cases in Oregon and California. All of which were from people that were in Asia. Not good. 15 hours ago, slonezp said: Beat me to the punch Lol, there are elections every year.
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