Daimien's Hurricane Projection

[Fishing_FF]

2 hours ago, SC53 said:

Looks like it just started to turn north.

If you’ve seen any videos of the Bahamas you know what this thing is capable of.  The storm surge was unbelievable.  One video by an official showed the water, not just waves but solid water, half way up his window and he was on the second floor of his house, 15 feet up!

Yep, finally turned and moving, NW @ 1MPH per 0800 NHC update.

 

Here is a satellite photo of Grand Bahama, showing what Dorian has done to the island:

[TnRiver46]

Did any of these models predict it to sit still for 3 days? 

[Koz]

5 hours ago, heyitskirby said:

Just to give you all an idea of how far the traffic mess will stretch - when Matthew went up the east coast a couple of years ago I was working on a project in VA on NB I-95 in southern VA.  We were putting out lane closures at night and would get 2 - 3 mile backups all night on a stretch of 95 where traffic is extremely light at night (this is rural VA).  Most of the plates were from Florida.  

We were living in Bluffton (near Hilton head) when Matthew hit and decided to ride it out. The nearest hotel room I could get was either outside of Charlotte or west of Atlanta,

 

We had metal hurricane shutters affixed to the windows so we could not see outside. Matthew hit in the middle of the night but it didn't sound bad outside where we were. But when we went out the next day we saw thousands of trees down and lagoons overflowing into the streets.

[soflabasser]

We were fortunate that this hurricane did not land in South Florida. It had potential to be worse than hurricane Andrew since at one point it had 180 mph sustained winds with 220 mph wind gust. Weather is looking good for the weekend so I plan on going fishing.

[N Florida Mike]

Well, the turtle is almost here. This one appears that it will be further offshore than Matthew. I don’t think we’ll have much wind damage, unless we get a tornado, which is my biggest concern. There will likely be some coastal flooding .

I am somewhat aggravated by all the news hype. They want you to stay tuned in because they are selling viewership. Every weather event, big or small , is like the end of the world. I totally get leaving SE Florida in the face of a 185 mph storm. I don’t get how the hype continues. And the news stations “ preaching “  - I was watching local news just now, the young lady doing the report just told an older man she was interviewing that hopefully he would get indoors soon.( but it’s ok for her to be out there ). I hear this with every little thunderstorm. They think we have no common sense apparently. They have a lot of time to fill, so the preaching accomplishes the filling.

 In our area, they have put out mandatory evacuations for certain lower zones. I can understand it may be advisable but mandatory? They act like they can’t believe you would stay. Well, some people just can’t leave because they have no money for gas or no vehicle or no relatives or friends to stay with or money for a motel somewhere.

The problem with this hype is that when a real emergency occurs people will remember all the “ Crying wolf “ events of the past and take it lightly.

On the other hand, I guess all the gov. Agencies and news stations are scared of Being too unconcerned and it leading to deaths and lawsuits. 

 

But the Bahamas? Folks, they need everything we can do for them. I wish I had the means to drop everything and go there to help.

[jbsoonerfan]

@N Florida Mike it has got so bad here with the hype over tornadoes that I am almost to the point where I don't listen to the warnings any more. Which is sad, because I know a bunch of people are the same as I am. After the May 20, 2013 tornado it's as if the local news stations try so hard to predict a tornado that they really don't care if they are right, they just want to put fear in people. There have even been days in recent years where schools have closed for a day because the weathermen have predicted serious tornadoes for that day. Just recently they broke into programming to cover a "rain" event. That's literally all it was, rain. No high winds, no lightning, nothing. One local station is the worst about it. It's bad that you can no longer trust the news to actually report the news.

[N Florida Mike]

I’m glad I’m not the only one that thinks this way.... 

[N Florida Mike]

The local news has now found an area that has minor flooding. The buzzards are congregating there as we speak.

Another urgent report just in: Kids Are now SWIMMING in the flooded area of their neighborhood! News station is not recommending this because the water could be contaminated! 

Also this just in: An armadillo has been spotted swimming in the same area.

My word, plenty of news people out there with lots of valuable info. So we will survive this.?

[Mike L]

You stay safe up there!!

 

 

 

Mike

[Sam]

She is picking up speed again and heading for Charleston.

 

Could have major flooding along the South Carolina coast.

 

Hope not. Too many wonderful places along the South Carolina coast to be damaged or destroyed.

 

 

11 hours ago, N Florida Mike said:

Well, the turtle is almost here. This one appears that it will be further offshore than Matthew. I don’t think we’ll have much wind damage, unless we get a tornado, which is my biggest concern. There will likely be some coastal flooding .

I am somewhat aggravated by all the news hype. They want you to stay tuned in because they are selling viewership. Every weather event, big or small , is like the end of the world. I totally get leaving SE Florida in the face of a 185 mph storm. I don’t get how the hype continues. And the news stations “ preaching “  - I was watching local news just now, the young lady doing the report just told an older man she was interviewing that hopefully he would get indoors soon.( but it’s ok for her to be out there ). I hear this with every little thunderstorm. They think we have no common sense apparently. They have a lot of time to fill, so the preaching accomplishes the filling.

 In our area, they have put out mandatory evacuations for certain lower zones. I can understand it may be advisable but mandatory? They act like they can’t believe you would stay. Well, some people just can’t leave because they have no money for gas or no vehicle or no relatives or friends to stay with or money for a motel somewhere.

The problem with this hype is that when a real emergency occurs people will remember all the “ Crying wolf “ events of the past and take it lightly.

On the other hand, I guess all the gov. Agencies and news stations are scared of Being too unconcerned and it leading to deaths and lawsuits. 

 

But the Bahamas? Folks, they need everything we can do for them. I wish I had the means to drop everything and go there to help.

How did Disney and UCF make out?

[N Florida Mike]

10 hours ago, Sam said:

She is picking up speed again and heading for Charleston.

 

Could have major flooding along the South Carolina coast.

 

Hope not. Too many wonderful places along the South Carolina coast to be damaged or destroyed.

 

 

How did Disney and UCF make out?

I’m sure Disney and UCF are fine. They are well away from the coast. I haven’t heard of any tornadoes either.

It looks like my family in NC are going to get hit again. My cousin that lives in Ogden just got her roof fixed from the last one a few months ago.

[SC53]

UCF is fine. I’m only about a half mile from it.  No power loss, minimal winds, very little debris on the roads.  

[Fishing_FF]

On 9/3/2019 at 12:06 PM, TnRiver46 said:

Did any of these models predict it to sit still for 3 days? 

Yes, the Saturday NHC models predicted a slow down and stall. The Sunday NHC models pinpointed the stall for the multiple days. 

 

On 9/4/2019 at 8:02 AM, N Florida Mike said:

The problem with this hype is that when a real emergency occurs people will remember all the “ Crying wolf “ events of the past and take it lightly.

Yes, I foresee this as a problem. 2 years ago, Florida state officials and the media hyped up Matthew, and this year, they did the same with Dorian. Both took similar paths. A lot of people are drawing the correlations. Hopefully they see it for what is was, the officials trying to be cautious with an unpredictable potential disaster.

 

17 hours ago, Sam said:

How did Disney and UCF make out?

Disney parks and attractions closed early on Tuesday (most in the late afternoon), and re-opened Wednesday with normal hours. There wasn't any significant damage to the inland Central Florida areas. I know the coast has some minor issues with flooding, power loss, and tornados, but nothing what the Carolinas is dealing with. Dorian has hit them far worse. 

[Sam]

 

 

 

[Mike L]

You guys up there have my hopes and prayers that everyone will remain safe. 

 

We dodged a Bullett down here for sure. 

I hope you all are just as lucky.  

 

 

 

Mike