Daimien's Hurricane Projection

[Sam]

Daimien's Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center

4:00 Wednesday August 28, 2019

The EURO Model suggest Dorian will do a Katrina.... This is a Category 3 / 4 Pre-Catastrophic Major Hurricane in the Gulf. Anyone from Louisiana to Florida to South Carolina SHOULD be closely monitoring this storm. The margin of Error with this forecast is BIG. The GFS and EURO are thinking two different things and there are a LOT of Variables to work out. GET PREPARED NOW!!!. Remember other people have to prepare as well. Eventually gas will run out if it gets to grim. As a person that has been through Harvey, Rita, and Ike being over prepared is ALWAYS a good thing.

 

[Hammer 4]

Just read about this. Hope all of you folks in the affected area are able to stay Safe and sound. 

[Mike L]

Yeah, its gonna be interesting.

We live in an 18k lb, 42ft fifth wheel that is parked at a rv resort just south of Melbourne Fl.

I can't move it as I haven't got a truck yet.. (Dealer moved it here when I bought it)

We're keeping a watchful eye on this thing because as of now the middle of the "cone" is right over us. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mike

 

[Sam]

2 hours ago, Mike L said:

Yeah, its gonna be interesting.

We live in an 18k lb, 42ft fifth wheel that is parked at a rv resort just south of Melbourne Fl.

I can't move it as I haven't got a truck yet.. (Dealer moved it here when I bought it)

We're keeping a watchful eye on this thing because as of now the middle of the "cone" is right over us. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mike

 

Mike, any possibility you can evacuate? If that storm hits your area it could be devastating.

[Mike L]

@Sam

I have no truck to move it yet. 

If it continues on its path by Saturday, Mrs Mike and I will leave and try to find a place to stay for a few days in the opposite direction and come back when it's all clear. 

 

At least that's the plan

 

 

 

 

Mike

 

[Hammer 4]

3 hours ago, Mike L said:

@Sam

I have no truck to move it yet. 

If it continues on its path by Saturday, Mrs Mike and I will leave and try to find a place to stay for a few days in the opposite direction and come back when it's all clear. 

 

At least that's the plan

 

 

 

 

Mike

 

Man, I hope it all works out for you guys. No damage, and no injuries...

[N Florida Mike]

The 2 most accurate models I’m told are a few hundred miles apart as to where it will make landfall. One takes it north toward where We live and the other to south Fl.One prediction gives us 15+ inches of rain. Much of the North Florida area is very low, and this would cause real bad flooding, maybe even worse than Irma that was the worst in my lifetime in my area. I also went through Dora as a small child with 90-100 mph winds and had no damage to my childhood home.

We are 21 feet above sea level where I live, but live on a small lake. One side of my house is only 30 feet from the lake but we’re kind of on a hill. With all the storms we’ve had recently, the lake has never gotten anywhere close to level with the house and then we have a crawl space too. But the lake is only a few inches lower than full pool at this time. 

Our lake was actually a foot and a half higher with Matthew than Irma, but still didn’t breach the top of our bulkhead , although Irma had unprecedented flooding in the St Johns river system that is only 1/2 of a mile away from us.

Sorry to ramble , but hurricanes are very interesting to me , although very tedious and scary. Us in Florida covet your thoughts and prayers.

[SC53]

8 hours ago, Mike L said:

@Sam

I have no truck to move it yet. 

If it continues on its path by Saturday, Mrs Mike and I will leave and try to find a place to stay for a few days in the opposite direction and come back when it's all clear. 

 

At least that's the plan

 

 

 

 

Mike

 

Mike you might want to get a hotel room for Sunday and Monday at least, just in case you need to bail. You’d be welcome here but we’re in a mfg home here in the UCF area and are going to brothers place.

[Sam]

Good luck to everyone in the storm's path.

 

This could be a very dangerous storm for Florida.

 

If it gets into the Gulf and reforms itself and heads to New Orleans we could have another problem in the Bayou State if the levees fail again.

 

Would rather have it make a hard right turn and head up the Atlantic coast.

[Todd2]

I just heard the Navy is moving planes from Florida to Ohio..probably standard procedure. Be safe everyone down there.

[Sam]

Just now, Todd2 said:

I just heard the Navy is moving planes from Florida to Ohio..probably standard procedure. Be safe everyone down there.

Navy ships may be headed out to sea, too.

[Mike L]

4 hours ago, SC53 said:

Mike you might want to get a hotel room for Sunday and Monday at least, just in case you need to bail. You’d be welcome here but we’re in a mfg home here in the UCF area and are going to brothers place.

Thanks Pal!

I sincerely Thank You for your very kind offer.

We're probably gonna head out Saturday and pick up the pieces once it passes. 

 

I just hope this thing is at least upright when we get back. 

 

Thanks again

 

 

 

Mike

[Sam]

5 hours ago, SC53 said:

Mike you might want to get a hotel room for Sunday and Monday at least, just in case you need to bail. You’d be welcome here but we’re in a mfg home here in the UCF area and are going to brothers place.

Nephew's daughter is a student at UCF.

 

What is the university doing?

 

This is her first hurricane as she is from Pennsylvania.

[Fishing_FF]

How I have felt since Monday when Dorian set a mark on Florida with a possible landfall. 

 

If you aren't able to find a place to stay @Mike L or need help afterwards, let me know. The fire department hasn't called me in yet, so for now, I'm off duty until next week. 

[Fishing_FF]

34 minutes ago, Sam said:

Nephew's daughter is a student at UCF.

 

What is the university doing?

 

This is her first hurricane as she is from Pennsylvania.

There was a website listed on the news last night for parents with students at UCF. Unfortunately, the site won't let me put the link here. It hides the post. Try typing "UCF Hurriance Dorian" in Google or go to the Orlando news station "ClickOrlando" for the story with the links. 

[J Francho]

https://www.ucf.edu/news/ucf-monitoring-tropical-storm-dorian/

[Glenn]

34 minutes ago, Fishing_FF said:

There was a website listed on the news last night for parents with students at UCF. Unfortunately, the site won't let me put the link here. It hides the post. Try typing "UCF Hurriance Dorian" in Google or go to the Orlando news station "ClickOrlando" for the story with the links. 

There's a software glitch that randomly hides posts until they are "approved" by a moderator.  It has absolutely nothing to do with the content of the post, or who is posting.  It's so frustrating to track down the cause of the bug!

[Mike L]

1 hour ago, Fishing_FF said:

How I have felt since Monday when Dorian set a mark on Florida with a possible landfall. 

 

If you aren't able to find a place to stay @Mike L or need help afterwards, let me know. The fire department hasn't called me in yet, so for now, I'm off duty until next week. 

 

Thank You Tom!!!

I really appreciate your offer!

I'll let you know. 

 

Mrs Mike found a B&B somewhere on the other coast so we'll be heading out Saturday. 

I have a house on the sw coast but I rented it out when we hit the road. 

Now I Wish I didn't do it ?

 

 

 

 

Mike

 

[Darren.]

Levi Cowan's GFS hurricane runs for Dorian show it making landfall in 

Florida, as expected, then turning to the north through Georgia, then

out to sea and regaining strength making landfall again Sep 9 in the

OBX, then moving straight up the coast hitting Hampton Roads, on

up the entire Eastern seaboard.

 

 

[Brad Reams]

I like this weather guy and he's in Richmond.  

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/

In the past He's been pretty reliable 

https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/thursday-midday-update-dorian/2404338012946776/

[Fishing_FF]

2 hours ago, Glenn said:

There's a software glitch that randomly hides posts until they are "approved" by a moderator.  It has absolutely nothing to do with the content of the post, or who is posting.  It's so frustrating to track down the cause of the bug!

Gotcha. It happened twice in this thread, so I figured it was something I was doing wrong. Thanks!

 

Thanks @J Francho for clearing up the double post and putting up the link!

[Darren.]

7 minutes ago, Brad Reams said:

I like this weather guy and he's in Richmond.  

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/

In the past He's been pretty reliable 

https://www.facebook.com/notes/wxriskcom/thursday-midday-update-dorian/2404338012946776/

 

Yup, he's good. Uses Levi Cowan's stuff, too.

 

Models are all early...so anything possible.

[Brad Reams]

35 minutes ago, Darren. said:

Yup, he's good. Uses Levi Cowan's stuff, too.

 

Models are all early...so anything possible.

gotcha yeah GFS 

Euro model seems to be more reliable 

so a hybrid of those 2+ models is what I'd watch 

[Glenn]

3 hours ago, Fishing_FF said:

Gotcha. It happened twice in this thread, so I figured it was something I was doing wrong. Thanks!

 

It's also happened to Sam a few times in this thread, but he didn't assume he was being censored. 

 

 Again, I know it's a hassle, so I appreciate your patience.

[Darren.]

And what a difference a few hours make. Latest has Dorian missing

the OBX and heading out to sea....

 

Anyhoo, here's Levi's Thursday PM update: