2018/2019 drought outlook !

[burrows]

 According to many amateur meteorologists on YouTube and the farmers almanac California and the entire west coast is headed for a tuff year of drought. Even Northern California will likely be an extremely dry year making what seemed like a recovery more of a few like steps back to  a positive recovery. See what happens? Hopefully things will work themselves out.

[Scott F]

You know the farmers almanac is just made up right? I’d never bet money on anything that was printed there. But, if it’s on YouTube, it must be accurate. ?

[burrows]

Well I don’t think it’s made up, but I don’t think anyone can predict the weather however! I do believe that those who monitor the different patterns of the weather can come to a very good theory as to what is ahead.

[NorcalBassin]

Not gonna lie... already getting a tad nervous after just one storm in early October and nothing in the forecast at least through mid-November. Good news is we can make it up in a hurry with strong storms in Jan/Feb, but I still like it a lot better when all of the ski resorts are open Thanksgiving weekend.

[Oregon Native]

Gosh...for the most part the west was pretty dry this year

[Log Catcher]

2 hours ago, Oregon Native said:

Gosh...for the most part the west was pretty dry this year

The west stayed dry because we got all the rain here. We already have the wettest fall on record and need less than 3" of rain to have the wettest year on record.

[burrows]

17 hours ago, Scott F said:

You know the farmers almanac is just made up right? I’d never bet money on anything that was printed there. But, if it’s on YouTube, it must be accurate. ?

You know what I did some research on that farmers almanac stuff and that stuff is a bunch of junk and your absolutely right about that.

But the meteorologists yeah they seem to be more believable.

[JustJames]

This year the Lake Elsinore water district had to buy water for our lake because some of the docks in shallow area got too shallow for boat to get in-out. Until next year with heat staying longer and no rain, I don't wanna see what gonna happen next year.

[WRB]

There is a chance of a El Niño year starting late 2018 to 2019....we pray for rain!

Tom

 

[Boomstick]

I wouldn't mind a little less humidity. It's been so humid this year that I had black mold on my downstairs ceiling!

On the flipside, some normally shallow areas in a local lake spots were deeper this year which brought in pike and bass later in the year than I'd normally see out there (normally they'll hide under the nearby bridge when it's hotter out).

[burrows]

From what I’ve heard their will be an El Niño but it’s likely to be a weak El Niño bringing rain down towards Baja California and then slightly upwards headed threw Texas.

[Angry John]

No worries you could accept that southern California is a desert and has had to bring water from the north and other states for decades.  Look to the redwood tree species for answers.  It has specially adapted to get water from fog to compensate for low rain fall.

[burrows]

16 hours ago, Angry John said:

No worries you could accept that southern California is a desert and has had to bring water from the north and other states for decades.  Look to the redwood tree species for answers.  

I would love to look at the California redwoods as an analogy but a lot of them are dead. Every year I visit Yosemite and sequoia national parks and theses last two years a lot of them were gone. Camp sites that were once filled with shade are now barren with cut down dying trees don’t get me wrong still millions of trees but the drought has made a big impact.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/19/us/california-today-100-million-dead-trees-prompt-fears-of-giant-wildfires.html

[Angry John]

On 11/8/2018 at 9:07 PM, Burrows said:

I would love to look at the California redwoods as an analogy but a lot of them are dead. Every year I visit Yosemite and sequoia national parks and theses last two years a lot of them were gone. Camp sites that were once filled with shade are now barren with cut down dying trees don’t get me wrong still millions of trees but the drought has made a big impact.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/19/us/california-today-100-million-dead-trees-prompt-fears-of-giant-wildfires.html

That's because man is messing with the natural cycles in these forests to include the fire cycle.  The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

[burrows]

7 hours ago, Angry John said:

That's because man is messing with the natural cycles in these forests to include the fire cycle.  The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Lots of fires going on right now, pretty scary actually...

I think we’ll get rain soon or hope we do soon. From what I’ve read Texas is going to get hammered with way above average rain.

 

 

[WRB]

If you want a scary scenario study mega droughts along the west coast. 850AD  to 1100 AD or 250 years was the longest recorded drought period and 1200AD to 1350 AD was the second longest. The report was done at USC and published. The conclusion of this study report was a rainy period just ended and we may be starting a new mega drought cycle. 

Tom

[Mobasser]

I know you guys are talking mainly about the West Coast, but our drought in Missouri and the Midwest overall last year was horrible too. We're all praying for rain ourselves. Corn crop here in Missouri was lost in much of the state, and lake levels got dangerously low! Hope it improves for everyone next season

[SWVABass]

I know through work we in the Southwest az/nm/SoCal are looking at a greater than average chance for an El Niño year, chances of more precip while having a more mild winter. That’s just a chance though. The tree kills in Cali can be associated with drought/insect infestation/ and lack of natural fire return intervals.

[burrows]

Average to below average rain in southern California with above average temps, new update from this youtuber I watch Texas still gonna get hammered with rain and it’s gonna be cold for you guys out east. Looks like we might be seeing a weak El Niño this year.

 

Edited November 22, 2018 by Burrows

[NorcalBassin]

Been a nice weather pattern the past week and the 10-day forecast is full of moisture with snow well below pass levels. This is definitely what we needed after a dry month and hopefully it's just the start of an above-normal winter to fill the lakes back up.

[Reel Assassin]

I still remember watching a weatherman giving his forecast of no measurable rain in the area over the last 24 hours when an employee of the station walked out on stage and handed the weatherman a note. He looked puzzled but opened the note and read it. It said, stick your head out the door, it is raining cats and dogs! ?  

[SWVABass]

we have had a decent winter here so far. Hoping it keeps up for the next month/month and a half. We still need our lake to come up 30’ just to hit the pool we had last spring. I don’t know if we will get enough snow pack to do that or not.

[contium]

On 11/6/2018 at 6:32 PM, burrows said:

 According to many amateur meteorologists on YouTube and the farmers almanac California and the entire west coast is headed for a tuff year of drought. Even Northern California will likely be an extremely dry year making what seemed like a recovery more of a few like steps back to  a positive recovery. See what happens? Hopefully things will work themselves out.

lol

[Log Catcher]

We had our wettest year on record this past year with 72" of rain an normal is about 45". So far this year we have already had 10". The rain won't slow down for us. We have a bunch more coming in the next few days.

[Mw Michaelis]

Hmm bad drought in 19 hmm funny we have had one of the wettest years ever for rain and snow fall.