Hurricane Season has Arrived

[lo n slo]

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/3448137187853781/

 

i live about 30 miles N of Charlotte, NC and remember Hurricane Hugo in ‘89. it came up through here in the middle of the night with 90 mph winds after coming ashore earlier in Charleston, SC a Cat 4. that’s over 200 miles inland! it tore this place apart. i had firewood for the next two years. we dont want no more. 

 

....here is another link with a nice video

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article218124850.html

[Sam]

 

 

Daimien's Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center

Hurricane Florence is bombing out. It has gone from a Category 3 to 4 in a matter of 3 Hours. This is a DEADLY and potentially Catastrophic hurricane that will Impact the Carolinas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Darren.]

Levi's latest. First 7 or so minutes cover Florence.

 

The rainfall alone is going to be awful. Saturday's rains here at our house took over 

24 hours to soak into the ground.... I've got huge pines less than 20 feet from my 

house...not happiest of campers.

 

 

[Todd2]

Been watching it on the Weather Channel, this looks like the real deal for the Carolina area. You guys and gals stay safe down there!

[Koz]

This afternoon we received the mandatory evacuation order to bug out on Tuesday. However, we're 250 miles south of Wilmington, NC and about 170 miles south of the southern edge of the warning cone. In other words, we're pretty far away from the current track.

 

At this point I think our Governor was too aggressive with his evacuation order. I think he should have made the evacuation in our area optional for now and let those up north evacuate first. All those folks from the northern part of the state that definitely need to find shelter will head southwest / west and they'll find it very hard to find hotels. It will also bottleneck traffic throughout the state.

 

When Hurricane Matthew hit this area a few years ago there wasn't a hotel room available within 350 miles. Because Matthew was a cat 1/2 many people chose not to evacuate. With Florence being a cat 4 EVERYONE will be evacuating in the target area.

 

At this time we're not planning to evacuate at noon tomorrow (again, the storm track is far away) but we'll keep an eye on it. Bags are packed and the car is gassed to go. If the storm path changes to within 75-100 miles of use we'll hit the road. But right now with the forecast we have it doesn't make sense to leave and clog the roads are take the facilities away from those that really need them.

 

If we need to leave I can always drive far inland, pitch a tent, and fish for a few days.

 

 

[greentrout]

Expect a Storm Surge of 15 - 20 Feet in a Landfalling Category 4 Storm in the Carolinas

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Expect-Storm-Surge-15-20-Feet-Landfalling-Category-4-Storm-Carolinas

[Sam]

7 hours ago, Darren. said:

Levi's latest. First 7 or so minutes cover Florence.

 

The rainfall alone is going to be awful. Saturday's rains here at our house took over 

24 hours to soak into the ground.... I've got huge pines less than 20 feet from my 

house...not happiest of campers.

 

 

With all the rain we have been having I expect lots of trees to come down knocking out power.

 

I agree with you. This could be one heck of a storm and having trees close to your house is not the best scenario.

 

Keep us posted as best you can for as long as you can during the storm.

 

Hopefully, the storm will move south of Wilmington when it makes landfall, taking it around Raleigh and then into southwest Virginia.

5 hours ago, Koz said:

This afternoon we received the mandatory evacuation order to bug out on Tuesday. However, we're 250 miles south of Wilmington, NC and about 170 miles south of the southern edge of the warning cone. In other words, we're pretty far away from the current track.

 

At this point I think our Governor was too aggressive with his evacuation order. I think he should have made the evacuation in our area optional for now and let those up north evacuate first. All those folks from the northern part of the state that definitely need to find shelter will head southwest / west and they'll find it very hard to find hotels. It will also bottleneck traffic throughout the state.

 

When Hurricane Matthew hit this area a few years ago there wasn't a hotel room available within 350 miles. Because Matthew was a cat 1/2 many people chose not to evacuate. With Florence being a cat 4 EVERYONE will be evacuating in the target area.

 

At this time we're not planning to evacuate at noon tomorrow (again, the storm track is far away) but we'll keep an eye on it. Bags are packed and the car is gassed to go. If the storm path changes to within 75-100 miles of use we'll hit the road. But right now with the forecast we have it doesn't make sense to leave and clog the roads are take the facilities away from those that really need them.

 

If we need to leave I can always drive far inland, pitch a tent, and fish for a few days.

 

 

Koz, check out the Weather Channel and Wxrisk.com on Facebook for updates. Wxrisk.com is usually correct in its predictions as Dave uses the European model, which the Weather Channel seems to be going to at this time.

 

Storm may make landfall south of Wilmington, towards your location. You and your family can head south into Georgia to escape it. Others in North Carolina will have to head north, south or west in hope of finding a motel/hotel room and fighting all that traffic escaping the area.

 

Please do not stay. This is a very powerful hurricane and the property damage when it hits the coast could be very high.

 

For political reasons, the governor has no other option. Remember New Orleans and how the mayor, governor, and their staffs failed in protecting people in that situation. Mississippi did great with their evacuation efforts but not Louisiana and you know the consequences of Katrina are still being felt along the Gulf coast.

 

Let us know what you do and be safe. Looking forward to your posts after you return home.

[TOXIC]

I am in Warrenton, VA for those who want to google it.  Far enough inland and North to just get soaked and maybe some trees down.  If anybody needs a safe haven in this storm feel free to contact me.  I've got a lot of room and more than willing to help out.  If nothing else, keep my location in mind in case of an emergency and you can't find anywhere to land.  email me is an option as well.  hammertimeguide@gmail.com.   

[N Florida Mike]

Im concerned about my cousins in S.E  N. Carolina. One of them lives around 2 miles from Wrightsville beach.  She was there when fran hit and only had one tree down on her very wooded property. Im calling her and some of the others to see what their plans are.

Some of my cousins in the fayetteville area were stranded at their homes for several days after Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew was only a cat.1 or 2 when it hit that area a couple years ago. My mom had passed away that week and we were trying to get everyone together near Wilmington for the funeral and it took 3 weeks for us to have it due to all the trees down, bridges washed out, flooding, etc.

Cant imagine what a cat. 4-5 could do. Much of coastal carolina is low and swampy.

Praying for safety for everyone in the storms path.

 

[Koz]

2 hours ago, Sam said:

Please do not stay. This is a very powerful hurricane and the property damage when it hits the coast could be very high.

 

I've been through this drill before with Hugo, Matthew, and at least half a dozen tropical storms. With that experience we definitely don't take risks. We have bugging out down to a science by now!

 

This is one of those times I'm glad I moved inland and don't live on the beach anymore.

 

As of this morning we're 70 miles south of the hurricane watch area and well out of the predicted strike path. But if the hurricane even looks like it will be within 100 miles of us we'll be heading out. The car is gassed and our bags are packed. This is not a time to be stupid or brave.

[Shane Y]

Koz you got that right. Better to be safe than sorry. I used to go up that way and fish a good bit. Very nice area. The "wild"  horses on the beach was the main attraction for my family.  The awesome fishing is what did it for me. Yall be safe

 

[Sam]

Storm is shifting south.

 

Good for Virginia but not good for North Carolina.

 

Here is DT's midday video explaining what is going on.

 

 

[Koz]

Governor McMaster lifted the mandatory evacuation order for our county this morning.

 

Years ago Hurricane Hugo just missed us and pummeled Charleston. After the storm my buddies and I would head up there every other weekend with our chainsaws, cases of water, and batteries and just drive down a road and see who needed assistance. For those of you whose homes are in the path of Florence, rest assured there will be countless people doing the same once this storm passes.

 

With all of the craziness in the world and all of the despair some will have after the hurricane, I have no doubt that some of your faith in humanity will be restored. Godspeed.

[Sam]

Where is the Cajun Navy when you need them?

 

Just hung up speaking with a client who lives in Chesapeake near the NC boarder and she and her family (plus dog) are in Richmond, now. Husband works at the hospital so he can't leave until Monday.

 

She told me the mayor of Norfolk just released a mandatory evacuation notice to the city's residents.

 

Glad he released the evacuation notice now and did not wait for tomorrow. I-64 is a mess on a good day. And 460 will probably be clogged with tractor-trailers who are trying to avoid the crazy car and SUV drivers on I-64.

 

This is not looking good, folks.

[Sam]

1 PM Update from Dave at Wxrisk.com on Tuesday, September 11th:

 

Wxrisk.com

 

UPDATE 12z "regular "GFS MODEL CAVES.. SHIFT WAY SOUTH AS DO ALL THE 12Z HURRICANE MODELS

The information I am presenting here is CUTTING EDGE brand new info... it will appear on most TV stations at 5pm and I think there will be a shift on the NHC track at the 5pm advisory .

In addition to the video which I presume many of you have seen (and if you have not you should because well I love the sound my own voice and I am sure you do too...) what is significant here is that the operational or regular GFS model ...the one which I been complaining about for days that is deeply flawed because of the one way the model handles the ocean atmosphere ...has made a dramatic shift to the southwest.

As you saw the video this morning and over the last several days the GFS model has been consistently showed Florence getting close to Cape Hatteras NC then stalling over or close to Cape Hatteras for two days. The other models all last night shifted southwest down the coast with landfall at Wilmington to Myrtle Beach. .

As you can see from the image the 12z TUES GFS model has shifted significantly to the southwest and no longer brings Florence up to Cape Hatteras. The image on the RIGHT is the previous GFS model from just 12 hours ago and you can see the significant shift.

The second image is the 12z Tues the hurricane models -- notice that once Florence makes landfall most of the hurricane models turn her WEST ..keeping Florence mostly in North Carolina.

See More

[Darren.]

 

[greentrout]

Hurricane, Storm Surge Warnings Up for Carolinas; Florence May Stall Near Coast

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Storm-Surge-Warnings-Carolinas-Florence-May-Stall-Near-Coast

[Sam]

 

Southwest Airlines has cancelled all Thursday and Friday flights into Norfolk, and probably other airports impacted, too.

If the storm moves south after it hits we could have Atlanta International Airport have lots of cancelled flights.

 

 

Daimien's Gulf Coast Atlantic/Pacific Hurricane Tracking Center

Major Category 4 Hurricane Florence is back at 140 MPH Sustained Wind Speeds. Its eye-wall replacement cycle is complete and its ramping up. Its projected to make landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane Potentially Category 5. Hurricane Warnings are in effect. This is a Life Threatening Storm.

[greentrout]

 

Alexander Gerst

 

✔@Astro_Alex

 

Watch out, America! #Hurricane Florence is so enormous, we could only capture her with a super wide-angle lens from the @Space_Station, 400 km directly above the eye. Get prepared on the East Coast, this is a no-kidding nightmare coming for you. #Horizons

8:38 AM - Sep 12, 2018

[Fairtax4me]

Hoping everyone in NC and SC heeds those evacuations and gets out safe! Wind is one thing, storm surge and multiple feet of rain are an entirely different league of destruction. They're talking rainfall amounts like Camille dumped in central VA in '69. Literally wiped towns off the map. 

 

Be careful, be safe! I Wish you all the best of luck! 

[Sam]

 

MIDDAY UPDATE ON FLORENCE WED 9/12/18

Sep 12, 2018 | Posted by David Tolleris | THE DTs | 0 comments |

STARDATE      201809.12

 

 

 

Today I am doing this update on hurricane Florence the old fashioned -- no audio this afternoon no video just a regular ordinary of blog d update.

I will start out by making some assertions or forecasts and then explain why (the reasoning) I am forecasting this .

1 ...keep in mind people that just because the hurricane is not going to impact your area as bad as it looked 12...24.. or 36.. hours ago doesn't mean that Florence is not going to be a extremely powerful and dangerous hurricane for somebody.    Also... I am seeing a lot of reports on Twitter from Wilmington North Carolina area on the beaches which are showing a LOT of homes which have not board up and people who have not evacuated. This is really bad and disturbing

2 Yes the south trend is real and all models are showing that. But also the West trend that I have talked about over the past few days has at developed.

3. Florence COULD weaken some as it approaches the Carolina Coast especially by Wilmington then weaken steadily as she drifts southwest down the Carolina Coast to perhaps Savannah Georgia.

4 here is a possibility that the remains of the FLORENCE could get pull up towards the Appalachians into southern Pennsylvania ... western New York State next week. However even if that were to happen much the rain will have already been squeezed out of the system.

5 it looks like Florence is undergoing another eye wall replacement cycle and it is becoming larger--that is to say the EYE is becoming larger. This is also supported by the fact that they have found hurricane force winds almost 100 miles from the center.

 

  

The fact that we are entering another eye wall replacement cycle means that the significant intensification of Florence is probably over. At least for the next 24 hours . But beyond that ...conditions become somewhat less than ideal has the hurricane approaches the Carolina Coast. But some of these satellite pictures over the next few days will be quite impressive as Florence approaches the coast.  This image shows some of the radar model SIMULATIONS of what Florence will look like as it approaches Wilmington and you can see that the eye of the system was quite large.

This next image shows the current wind shear across the southwest Atlantic -- including the area around and up to the Southeast US coastal areas. As you can see there is significant shear ahead of the system as it approaches the coast and that shear maybe inhibiting the intensification. Between this moderate sheer in around the hurricane and the eye wall replacement cycles the threat or concern that Florence might make category 5 --is in my opinion -over.

   

Here is the WED morning European model and it doesn't show any significant changes. We can clearly see however is that as the hurricane approaches Wellington it turns to the West and then stalls ...and then begins to drift southwest down the South Carolina Coast -- perhaps reaching the northeast coast of Georgia. The European started showing this yesterday whereas most of the other models which are showing Florence stalling along the Carolina Coast.

UKMET  MODEL  FROM EARLY  WED MORNING

Initially the European solution of drifting Florence southwest down the South Carolina Coast was greeted with a great deal of skepticism and snicker and snide comments but now all the models of doing it.

If we take a look at the morning GFS FV3 - which is the new and improved GFS model that does NOT have the same flaws of regular GFS model has... it also shows the same sort of thing: a stall near Wilmington or Myrtle Beach then a drift to the southwest down the SC coast weakening as it does so.

 

Here I present the last three runs of the hurricane models and you can clearly see a bend to the WEST -- which is what I was talking out three days ago when nobody else was -- then a drift to the southwest overtime.

The drift to the southwest is not a mistake that just happens to be showing up on ALLLLL of the models. When you see all of the the model data showing the same thing ...they are doing it for reason. You could make the argument that one model has had a bad run... or has some bad data.... but cannot make that argument when all the data is showing the same thing.

SO WHY ALL ALL THE MODELS SHOWING THE STALL AND SOUTHWEST DRIFT ?

It has to do with the enormous trough which develops over the western third of the country and southwest Canada over the next 24 hours. Like I stated in the podcast and in other recent updates this trough is going to cause an enormous ridge to form over the Eastern Conus. Hypothetically if we did not have Florence ....the next 7 to 10 days over the eastern third of the country would feature above and Much above normal temperatures and very little sign of Autumn like conditions.

Now keep in mind folks that when the hurricane stalls along the coast ... it is going to begin to weaken at a pretty steady pace. WHY?

well if in fact Florence does stall along the NC/ SC Coast for more than 24 hours... then it is going to cause the sea surface temperatures to cool off. This process is known as UPWELLING -- a process where the warm waters at the surface can mix with colder waters underneath. This produces cooler ocean water temperatures at the surface and the hurricanes begins the weaken.

But in addition hurricanes are large systems and this is very true with an expanding  Hurricane like Florence. This means that she is going to start pulling in air from the Midwest and entraining that cooler drier air non tropical air into the heart of the hurricane. This will cause additional weakening or at least a cap on any chance of intensification as it approaches the Southeast US coast and then drifts down the coast.

Indeed many the weather models show significant weakening of the hurricane once it reaches Wilmington and drifting down the coast. We can see this on the European model ...on the GFS FV2 ... and the British model... and all of the Manchurian models

  FINALLY HOW GOOD  HAS THE EUROPEAN   MODEL  BEEN?

one of the charges that its level against rom time to time esspecially by weather weenies who think they know what they are doing because they kniow where to find the GFS model on the Internet or because the chase tornadoes... is that I only use European model and/ or I have a bias towards European model.

Whenever I see that charge being made against me... I know that the person making that charge is moron. It's just that simple.

There are plenty times I have rejected the European model. The fact that they don't know about it is not my problem.

This image shows the consistency of the European model over the past 3 days. As you can see except for one or two model runs it has consistently showed a landfall on the NC/ SC border. If you compare that plot to the regular GFS the differences are huge.

Here is the GFS FV3 plots tracks for Florence over the past three days and as you can see it is also significantly closer to North Carolina South Carolina and almost the same as the European model. This is a very good trend and sign for the future GFS model as the new version continues to take over from the a truly abysmally awful regular GFS model.

Lastly the other thing that I have e tried to stress over the past few days is you simply cannot just look at weather models. You have to a look at the entire pattern and see what the weather models is trying to say.

When the European model began to show would drift southward two days ago ... the question many asked was " what the hell is the European model doing ? It can't be right! " .
That is the wrong perspective. The question that weather hobbyists.. weather weenies and professional meteorologist should have been asking is WHY is the model doing this?" Is it seeing something that other models are not seeing.? "

When that question is asked it becomes obvious what the European was seeing something first.

More later

[Koz]

Well, we're not quite out of the woods yet. It looks like we might get some tropical storm force winds in our area. I spent the day putting up hurricane panels on our house and for family and neighbors. I'm beat. But still have a few more to do in the morning.

 

The next 24-48 hours will be telling. Stay safe everyone.

[burrows]

So if you’re evacuating what do you take with you? Because all your belongings are at home and your subject to get robbed so I think that’s why so many ppl stick out the storms to protect their property? It kind of reminds of this story I seen on the history channel during the volcano erupting in Pompey a bunch of rich ppl tried to ride it out and died clutching their gold in some underground chamber. They were literally found clutching their riches in the hands and died from the toxic smoke and ash. 

[soflabasser]

I am amazed how accurate mankind is getting at predicting the path of a hurricane. Definitely a big improvement compared to 2-3 decades ago. There are other hurricanes in the Atlantic at this moment in time and hurricane season is not over until November 30. Hopefully the other hurricanes steer away from us.

[Darren.]

Levi's Wed. update. Excellent info.