Hurricane Season has Arrived

[Darren.]

Tropical Tidbits' current GFS run has Florence coming straight up

hitting Hampton Roads/Tidewater hard next Friday.

 

 

[TnRiver46]

Glad to live in East TN! We are almost void of natural disasters. Traditionally we had heavy flooding but TVA has eliminated  that (for the time being). We did have wildlifes a couple years ago that claimed 14 lives. The only way to have a a wildfire in a tropical jungle (or the next closest thing) was a combination of hot dry conditions with strong winds, kids playing with matches, and a forestry policy where we don't manage at all, just let 80 years of slash and logs pile up and wait for a spark. 

[N Florida Mike]

Our weatherman showed the map of historical hurricanes at the same time of year and in the same area where it is now. According to him and the map ,EVERY historical recorded hurricane like this one has curved out before hitting the U.S.

Hope and pray that will continue with this one.

[Sam]

From a Navy meteorologist the evening of Friday, September 7th:

 

For anyone in on the east coast, especially NC to NY need to keep track on Florence. This morning's long range forecast has again shifted to making a possible landfall into NC early Thursday. I expect by Sunday morning, we will have a good guess on where the track will be. Until then, expect continued variances in the forecast track.

I don't remember the hurricane but I do remember the guy at the mouth of the Mississippi River broadcasting from his weather station back to the New Orleans radio station.

 

I remember him being asked how fast the wind was blowing. His reply was sensational:

 

"I don't know. The wind has blown all of my equipment away."

[Darren.]

Let's hope history, in this case, repeats and keeps Flo out to sea.

[Sam]

8 hours ago, Darren. said:

Let's hope history, in this case, repeats and keeps Flo out to sea.

Sorry Darren, we will be hit hard.

 

Everyone please note what Dave put out this Friday evening and remember Dave is usually 100% correct.

 

Although the video is about 12 minutes it is worth the time.

 

Think about going to the grocery store now to avoid the crowds and start making plans if you are west of I-95 in Virginia and eastern and central North and South Carolina.

 

Be sure to let us know what happens next week in your area and I will continue to post Dave's updates if they are helpful.

 

 

 

[Darren.]

Have a look at Levi's latest, as well.

 

 

[Sam]

Thanks, Darren.  Great information.

 

We should know more tomorrow (Sunday) morning.

[Sam]

1245 am Sunday, September 9, 2018 update

THE DAILY DTs
https://www.wxrisk.com/the-daily-dts/

A few hrs ago all of the Hurricane models ..many of which HAD been showing either a coastal track or stall just off the coast, have now turned 180 degrees and moved towards the European model showing a hit in southeastern NC near or close to Wilmington NC.

...

The New 0z GFS has come in and that model is so messed up that its new solution is actually meteorologically IMPOSSIBLE.

[Choporoz]

Crazy right now...there's probably 6 storms threatening from Guam to just off Africa

[Sam]

Sunday at 8:30 AM from the Navy meteorologist:

 

UPDATE on FLORENCE- It is very likely that FLORENCE will make landfall somewhere along the coast of SC and NC on Thursday-Friday September 13-14.

 

During that time, it may slow and stall along the coast or just inland. If this happens, very heavy rain across NC and most of VA will occur.

 

Initial forecasts for NC-VA show anywhere from 15-25 inches of rain through Monday the 17th. This would cause widespread devastating flooding.

 

In addition, it may be a strong category 3 or category 4 hurricane. Isolated tornadoes will be another danger. Next update Monday morning.

[volzfan59]

My youngest son is in the Coast Guard, stationed at the small boat station at Ft. Macon (Atlantic Beach) NC. They're making ready for Florence. I'm praying that everyone stays safe.

[A-Jay]

27 minutes ago, volzfan59 said:

My youngest son is in the Coast Guard, stationed at the small boat station at Ft. Macon (Atlantic Beach) NC. They're making ready for Florence. I'm praying that everyone stays safe.

Clearly your son made a fine choice regarding his service selection - 

Did 3 years out of Fort Macon myself.

Great place to be stationed. 

Please Thank him for his service for me. 

Hope everyone stays safe.

A-Jay

[flyfisher]

I hope everyone is safe and there is minimal damage.  Now a few "hurricane days" off from school wouldn't be that bad though....

[Gundog]

Stay safe everybody. Remember..Things can be replaced, you can't. My prayers are going out to the people in its path.

[Sam]

4 hours ago, volzfan59 said:

My youngest son is in the Coast Guard, stationed at the small boat station at Ft. Macon (Atlantic Beach) NC. They're making ready for Florence. I'm praying that everyone stays safe.

X2

[Sam]

I hope Dave from Wxrisk.com is correct in his forecast.  If so, eastern and northern Virginia will be spared the impact of a very strong hurricane. Here is what DT posted, with my spelling and grammar corrections.

 

4:40 PM on Sunday, September 9, 2018 from Wxrisk.com

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTs - The 12z SUNDAY ECMWF has come out and there are SIGNIFICANT developments .

1 . The European model again holds course with a direct hit atWilmington NC at 955 mb (more or less) which would place Florence as strong category 3 storm.

2 The Operational GFS is deeply flawed and very likely to be wrong and has no support for any other model of any kind. It should be ignored. That being said many of the local TV station will keep talking about it . Even the upgraded new GFS -- the GFS FV3- now agrees with the European model track

3 From there Florence Tracks NW around the western side of the ridge tracking close to between Raleigh and Charlotte into or over Greensboro NC

4 Florence moves NW into SW VA then dies. This results in massive rains of 12-25 inches of rain over NW NC, north central NC, all of southwest VA,, and all of Shenandoah Valley. This will lead to catastrophic flooding for some. This would include the metro areas of the of Greensboro, Winston Salem, and High Point areas plus Wytheville, Blacksburg, Roanoke, Martinsville, Danville, South Boston, Lynchburg, Bedford, Farmville, Charlottesville, Waynesboro, Staunton, Lexington, and Harrisonburg in Virginia, and the far southeastern hird of West Virginia including areas such as Bluefield, Princeton, Lewisburg, and maybe Snowshoe WVA.

5 From I-95 east rainfall conditions are much different with rainfall amounts generally under 5" and the winds would not probably reach over 45 miles an hour during the height of the event. This would be a major break for all of Hampton Roads, Richmond metro and northeast Virginia, and North Carolina as well as the entire Chesapeake Bay and the Delmarva.

6 Taken Verbatim, the 12z Sunday European Model has Florence taking a track a very similar to what we saw with hurricane Fran in 1996. The main difference here is that Florence stalls over SW VA. If this is correct then Florence is NOT going to be that bad for the eastern half of VA & northeast NC.

 

[soflabasser]

Might be a good idea to go saltwater fishing a couple days before the bad weather hits the land since the low pressure often helps the fishing.I caught a 31.5 inch keeper snook yesterday and the whole area I was fishing in was packed with people. It rained thoughout the day today and I am sure we will get some rough seas if this next hurricane comes close to Florida.

[Sam]

This morning Dave is telling us he believes the storm will stay in North Carolina and southwest Virginia and that the rest of Virginia and all of South Carolina and West Virginia will be spared.

 

His afternoon update should shed some additional forecast information on the storm's projected path.

 

Friday and Saturday football in North Carolina may have to be rescheduled.

 

Will post Dave's afternoon post when it comes out.

 

And one of the three major TV stations in Richmond is now telling us what Dave has been saying this past week regarding where the storm may track.

 

Go out and do some fishing as the storm approaches but be sure to give yourself enough time to get home, safely.

[TOXIC]

Careful....common thought is that all of the eastern half of Virginia and pretty far inland is still in for destructive rains and flooding even though landfall is to the south.  This is a big storm.  DT has covered the potential of inland and coastal flooding.  Patiently waiting for the updates.  

[lo n slo]

[Koz]

We've been sweating out the track of Florence for the past few days now. Thankful that it looks to be passing north of us but praying for those in its path.

 

We went through Hurricane Matthew a few years ago and although it was only a 1/2 when it hit it still did a ton of damage. It took over a year to clean up all of the downed trees. Our area is a bit different than most when it comes to building. Whether it's a home, residential community, or a business the builder cannot simply clear cut and then plant new trees.

 

So when you build a home you need both ARB and county approval for the trees you want to remove. So new homes and businesses are surrounded by mature, hundred plus year old trees. That's great for preservation, but horrible when a hurricane or tropical storm comes through.

 

Last year when tropical storm Irma rolled through my son and I went out bank fishing just for the glory of fishing during the storm. Next to the lagoon we fished there was a large pavilion for storing golf course lawn equipment and we took shelter under that, then fished between the bands of heavy rain. We didn't catch anything, but it sure was exciting!

 

 

[Choporoz]

I'm sort of amazed at how tight the forecast cone is for Florence.  Either, the prediction confidence has improved dramatically in recent years....or, this storm's navigation system is awfully sure of itself -- set a course for Wilmington, NC and put it on autopilot

[Darren.]

1 hour ago, Choporoz said:

I'm sort of amazed at how tight the forecast cone is for Florence.  Either, the prediction confidence has improved dramatically in recent years....or, this storm's navigation system is awfully sure of itself -- set a course for Wilmington, NC and put it on autopilot

Agreed. Was showing my wife the forecast path this AM and noted

how narrowed it was, meaning higher certainty. Ugh.

 

The GFS's latest is still worst case for my area, and hopefully Wxrisk 

and others predicting the GFS is bonkers turns out right.

 

The 2pm GFS ensemble has it hitting OBX, then slowly turning back to 

the Atlantic, then back to OBX and up to VA Beach (SE VA) churning 

around for a wee day or two. That's horrific for all of us down here.

 

[soflabasser]

Hurricane Florence is a Category 4 Hurricane at this moment in time. This would be a good time to buy needed items for those in the Mid Eastern states.