Let it Snow Let it Snow Let it Snow!

[Sam]

From Wxrisk.com on Monday, December 4, 2017:

 

*** ALERT!** 0z MON op-GFS is MUCH STRONGER WITH southern LOW (not unexpected development ) and Low levels are colder for the event NEXT weekend -- 1PM DEC 8 to 1AM DEC 9... The 0z MON GFS drops 2-5" over northwest NC, most of VA southern MD, most of the Delmarva into Philly, then NJ, NYC, southern New England.

If you plow snow or are in the snow removal business and you have no weather coverage because last winter was mild and we only had 1 big snow in 2015-16... then you need to wake up.

Accumulating snow in early December is Often - not always - a sign of an active winter .... Feel to contact me at wxrisk@gmail.com

[Catt]

I'll pass .?

[Oregon Native]

No snow please ....

[12poundbass]

Ours should be here Wednesday or Thursday. I heard earlier this fall that it was supposed to be a colder/snowier winter. Then a week or two ago I heard mild/less snow. Farmers Almanac says colder with more snow than usual. 

 

Either way, it's been a while for most of us since our last snow event so just a reminder....DON'T EAT YELLOW SNOW ?

[J Francho]

33 minutes ago, 12poundbass said:

Ours should be here Wednesday or Thursday.

Looking the same for us, too.  Expecting some serious lake effect snow.  Lake Ontario itself is still relatively warm.

[A-Jay]

Yahtzee ~ ! 

A-Jay

 

 

[TnRiver46]

I like snow!! Fun to track things and listen to silence. And it also grinds the rat race to a screeching halt in the south!!! Unexpected days off are always fun

[12poundbass]

19 minutes ago, TnRiver46 said:

I like snow!! Fun to track things and listen to silence. And it also grinds the rat race to a screeching halt in the south!!! Unexpected days off are always fun

People get days off because of snow? ?

[Burtonxj]

Throwing the plow and sander on the 350 tomorrow. Guess it’s time for winter. 

 

Hoping for a couple of decent storms (for VA). I like plowing.

[Way north bass guy]

Having lived my whole life about 3 hours north of Toronto, On. I can say I’ll take less snow any day! It’s fun to run the snowmobile and I like ice fishing, but it sucks for working in and I’d rather be bassin in my boat. I do love it when I see somewhere down south gets like 3” of snow and the entire place shuts down like it’s under attack from aliens or something ?. Up here it’s just another day, I’ve had to snowblow 30” out of the driveway in the morning so we can get to work, only to have to do it all over again once I get home at the end of the day. 

[TnRiver46]

4 hours ago, 12poundbass said:

People get days off because of snow? ?

Oh yea, cars pile up everywhere like crazy! If you aren't in need of medical attention they don't even respond to the accident. My boss always says just stay put until after lunch and sometimes he just says wait until tomorrow. 

[Bankbeater]

I don’t mind the snow at all. The ice I can do without. 

[CroakHunter]

Here in southern indiana, last 2 years we've gotten less than 6" of snow combined. I don't mind snow, ice stinks though. I'd like a little bit so my 9 year old could go sledding. But it was 64 degrees here today. 

[12poundbass]

8 hours ago, TnRiver46 said:

Oh yea, cars pile up everywhere like crazy! If you aren't in need of medical attention they don't even respond to the accident. My boss always says just stay put until after lunch and sometimes he just says wait until tomorrow. 

Lol. I'm in Michigan and like @Way north bass guy said it's funny when the south gets snow. If we get 12 inches of blowing snow some places start to shut down (schools obviously do), usually it's around 14". I understand the south isn't set up to handle very much snow, but it's still funny how different things are between regions. 

[TnRiver46]

2 hours ago, 12poundbass said:

Lol. I'm in Michigan and like @Way north bass guy said it's funny when the south gets snow. If we get 12 inches of blowing snow some places start to shut down (schools obviously do), usually it's around 14". I understand the south isn't set up to handle very much snow, but it's still funny how different things are between regions. 

I work with a guy from michigan that won't drive in snow down here, he says the X factor is the curvy roads going up and down hill

[Darren.]

Y'all can have the snow. Richmond can have the snow here

in VA. Looks like my neck of the woods (Peninsula) will get 

rain! Fine by me! Not fine by my sons still in school....

 

I had enough snow for my life when I lived in the Rochester, NY

area. No thanks! Driving home on sheets of ice with the sun

directly in my eyes! GAH! Nightmares!

[12poundbass]

1 hour ago, TnRiver46 said:

I work with a guy from michigan that won't drive in snow down here, he says the X factor is the curvy roads going up and down hill

That is the X factor. Not a big fan of winding roads when there's snow, and your hills aren't hills. Lol if it's a 45 degree incline and over 100' of elevation change we call that a mountain! I'm being sarcastic of course, but he's right I'd much rather drive up here on snowy roads than where you are. 

[BrianinMD]

He is adjusted it some, totals a little less.

 

UPDATE IN WEEKEND SNOW IN NC WVA VA MD DEL SE PA/ SOUTH NJ ....

The midday GFS model ( called the 12z GFS) came out around 11:00 AM to 1200noon and it has the coastal LOW2 much weaker and much further to the east so that the only precipitation that falls is over eastern NC...Southeast VA into the lower MD eastern shore and most of thatb precip falls as rain.

I believe this solution to be an error because the GFS has a great deal of difficulty in handling LOW pressure areas coming out of the gulf coast and SE states --until you get within about 3 or 3.5 days.

The midday European model came out and it has a significant change and looks quite snowy for the northwest half of NC the southern VA Piedmont ...central VA including all the Richmond metro area ...most of the Middle Peninsula ... Northern Neck up into Fredericksburg ..southern MD most of DEL and the lower MD eastern shore. From there the European model actually continues the accumulating snow into NJ/ PHILLY and then up into NYC and aouthern New England.

Typically the European model does better with winter storms on the East Coast --especially beyond day 3. However there is a complication here.

1 Going into this event on Friday and Saturday temperatures will just be turning cold by then. Ground temperatures will be quite warm and this is not the middle of winter but the beginning of it. So it may be unwise to use a typical mid winter calculations and figuring the snow fall amounts.

2 Some of the various web sites on the Internet which carry the snow maps and snow totals from the European model are “enhanced.” That is to say they were designed ito show a maximum possible snow if every single thing in the entire universe when absolutely perfect.

The best case of this are the snow maps from the European model from a site known as wxbell.com. The algorithm which is used to forecast snow on the Euro model on this particular website views all sleet as accumulating snow ...and views a mixture of rain and snow as accumulating snow.

To most people sleet is not snow and it depresses snowfall totals. Crtainly a mixture of rain snow often appears plain old rain to a lot of people and that's early does not accumulate.

To show you how important this is.. let's take a look of the various snow maps from the European model on this Monday afternoon December 4 *** VALID *** Saturday morning DEC 9 when the snow ends.

IMAGE #1 shows you the enhanced snowfall map from the European model from the wxbell web site. If you are snow nut and you live in much of western and north crntral NC... VA MD DEL into Philly NJ NYC you have to love this map for early December snowfall. Unfortunately it's absolute and total ***. Perhaps if this was the middle of winter and ground temperatures are not as warm as it had been or a freer and the middle of a deep cold wave this solution might be viable.

A more improved or better way of handling the snow map is from the European model is using a different snow algorithm developed many years ago by some research scientists. This is the fur to as the KUCHERA snow algorithm - SEE IMAGE #2 . As you can clearly see the snow numbers are significantly reduced and seen to be much more realistic. But even here this particular snow algorithm appears to be forecasting snow amounts on the high side.

3. If you are too close to the LOW pressure area then your location may be too mild at the surface and precipitation falls as rain - eastern NC & southeast VA. If you are deep into the cold air you may be too far away from the precipitation to get the best snowfall -- ( areas such as Roanoke and the Shenandoah Valley).

MAP #3 is very reasonable and I think often presents the best most realistic European snow model maps. It is fromn EUROWX.COM Notice it has a band of 1 to 3 inch snows over central and interior portions of Eastern Virginia which extend up into most of the Delmarva and Southern New Jersey.

SUMMARY - snow does look likely Friday night and Saturday over a good portion of western and Central North Carolina a good portion of western central and interior Eastern Virginia the Delmarva and Southern New Jersey. It is uncertain different snow again into Washington, DC metro area Baltimore or even into Philly.

Second point is that you have to be careful with the snow maps. A lot a weather hobbyists and weather weenies take the snow maps for verbatim under the mistaken allusion that something wonders happens to them and or their lives if they get the most snow fall on a particular snow event. This process is known as not having a real life .....

 

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[TnRiver46]

9 minutes ago, 12poundbass said:

That is the X factor. Not a big fan of winding roads when there's snow, and your hills aren't hills. Lol if it's a 45 degree incline and over 100' of elevation change we call that a mountain! I'm being sarcastic of course, but he's right I'd much rather drive up here on snowy roads than where you are. 

Lucky for me, 99% of the time I don't have to drive on snowy roads anywhere! But I did finally get 4 wheel drive in 2012 so I dabble sometimes 

[Gundog]

Nooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

[Sam]

3 hours ago, TnRiver46 said:

I work with a guy from michigan that won't drive in snow down here, he says the X factor is the curvy roads going up and down hill

It is not necessarily the roads but the southerners who think they know how to drive in snow and ice being the problem.

[A-Jay]

 

Hope we finally get a load - my dogs are killing me & really need to pull a sled ! 

A-Jay

Winter Storm Warning
MIZ021-022-052330-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.171206T1700Z-171207T1700Z/
Antrim-Otsego-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Gaylord
1015 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
NOON EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult 
travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches 
are expected.

* WHERE...Otsego County and most definitely right over A-Jay residence. 

* WHEN...From noon Wednesday to noon EST Thursday. The heaviest
snow is expected Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday 
morning, when snowfall rates up to an inch per hour are 
possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow means
significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that will
make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.
 

[12poundbass]

10 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

 

Hope we finally get a load - my dogs are killing me & really need to pull a sled ! 

A-Jay

Winter Storm Warning
MIZ021-022-052330-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.171206T1700Z-171207T1700Z/
Antrim-Otsego-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Gaylord
1015 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO
NOON EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Plan on difficult 
travel conditions. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches 
are expected.

* WHERE...Otsego County and most definitely right over A-Jay residence. 

* WHEN...From noon Wednesday to noon EST Thursday. The heaviest
snow is expected Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday 
morning, when snowfall rates up to an inch per hour are 
possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in 
visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for heavy lake effect snow means
significant amounts of lake effect snow are forecast that will
make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.
 

8/10ths of an inch for me thru Thursday. I know it's inevitable for me but for now,  you can have it. 

[A-Jay]

4 minutes ago, 12poundbass said:

8/10ths of an inch for me thru Thursday. I know it's inevitable for me but for now,  you can have it. 

Thanks - we need it.  If I'm going to eventually endure the 30-40 below,  we Better have snow to go with it. 

 

FYI - It's snowing on & off right now here - 

Nothing like 10 - 20 inches of 'occasional flurries' to start off your day.

A-Jay

[Crappiebasser]

3 hours ago, Sam said:

It is not necessarily the roads but the southerners who think they know how to drive in snow and ice being the problem.

I've always found the opposite. Those of us from the south know the roads are not plowed and salted and can handle it. It's always the transplants that think "oh it's just an inch or 2" that end up in a ditch.