Looks Like Matthew will Miss the USA

[Sam]

Looks like Hurricane Matthew will be "stalled" in the Caribbean giving the cold front time to move east and sending him out to sea.

I hope so. We don't need a hurricane this late in the season.

Plus the fact that I have a tournament on October 8th on Lake Gaston and if Matthew comes ashore south of Virginia I am sure it will be rescheduled.

[Darren.]

41 minutes ago, Sam said:

Looks like Hurricane Matthew will be "stalled" in the Caribbean giving the cold front time to move east and sending him out to sea.

I hope so. We don't need a hurricane this late in the season.

Plus the fact that I have a tournament on October 8th on Lake Gaston and if Matthew comes ashore south of Virginia I am sure it will be rescheduled.

Indeed good news. Been following the storm for a while
now. Given I live so close to the coast here on the Peninsula,
I've been a bit concerned. Though the spaghetti models 
show she could still swipe us, it shouldn't be a direct hit.

Hope the GFS is right...

[Sam]

22 hours ago, Darren. said:

Indeed good news. Been following the storm for a while
now. Given I live so close to the coast here on the Peninsula,
I've been a bit concerned. Though the spaghetti models 
show she could still swipe us, it shouldn't be a direct hit.

Hope the GFS is right...

Darren, the European model has the storm gaining strength into a 5 and hitting around Wilmington.

A little too early to go with the Wilmington solution so stay tuned.

This time next weekend could be wild for us in central Virginia and Tidewater/Hampton Roads/Middle Peninsula/Northern Neck.

Let's hope the storm moves more east.

          

Take your pick, guys.

Still too early to tell where this storm is headed.

Hope the Euro is correct and it is out to sea.

1.  

   DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman 10h10 hours ago

   0z SAT EURO takes Matthew over Haiti NOT Jamaica= track much further off us coast & out to seapic.twitter.com/toFIHuZhKs

   

    
2.  

   DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman 10h10 hours ago

   

    
3.  

   DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman 10h10 hours ago

   

    
4.  

   DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman 22h22 hours ago

   12Z EURO shows a stall of cat 4-5 cane just ne of the Bahamas- LONG duration event for Bahamas !pic.twitter.com/hzjxMyk0vj

   

    

    

    

[Darren.]

1 hour ago, Sam said:

Darren, the European model has the storm gaining strength into a 5 and hitting around Wilmington.

A little too early to go with the Wilmington solution so stay tuned.

This time next weekend could be wild for us in central Virginia and Tidewater/Hampton Roads/Middle Peninsula/Northern Neck.

Let's hope the storm moves more east.

          

Take your pick, guys.

Still too early to tell where this storm is headed.

Hope the Euro is correct and it is out to sea.

1.  

   DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman 10h10 hours ago

   0z SAT EURO takes Matthew over Haiti NOT Jamaica= track much further off us coast & out to seapic.twitter.com/toFIHuZhKs

   

    
2.  

   DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman 10h10 hours ago

   

    
3.  

   DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman 10h10 hours ago

   

    
4.  

   DTVaWeatherman ‏@DTVaWeatherman 22h22 hours ago

   12Z EURO shows a stall of cat 4-5 cane just ne of the Bahamas- LONG duration event for Bahamas !pic.twitter.com/hzjxMyk0vj

   

    

    

    

The absolute worst for me would any major "hit" to the Peninsula
because I'm supposed to be going out of town on Saturday next.

Would hate it if my family has to go through the storm without me
there to get things like the generator going and such.

Here's hoping for the best - out to sea.

[Sam]

X2.

Looking like the storm will go eastward and miss the USA.

Keep fingers and toes crossed while me monitor this one.

[Darren.]

3 hours ago, Sam said:

X2.

Looking like the storm will go eastward and miss the USA.

Keep fingers and toes crossed while me monitor this one.

I just looked at some spaghetti models this AM and
if they're right, it'll be off the coast maybe 100 miles
or so -- assuming the "main track" is correct. And 
assuming that particular model is even accurate.

Otherwise, it could swipe OBX and ruin next week.

But as of now, looks like my trip will take place, I 
just hope it doesn't swipe us while I'm gone! Ugh.

[Darren.]

Not liking the looks of the latest models bringing it in
to the OBX area, which means southeast VA will get 
some of the fun stuff.

My worry would be coming home since it isn't likely 
to hit until Sunday...

[soflabasser]

Looks like I might have to get my gear ready soon for some spillway fishing.

[Sam]

Darren, looks like it will hit around Wilmington, NC.

Let's hope it goes out to sea.

I think my Lake Gaston tournament will be put on hold. Hope so as I am not going.

Stay tuned, Dave from Wxrisk.com is going to update his forecast later today and he has been on the money with hurricanes although this one has him somewhat perplexed.

And guys, when you look at Darren's map you will see two large lakes on the Virginia/North Carolina border. These are Buggs Island and Lake Gaston. You can see how close the storm is coming to them.

In addition, we have to tow our boats on I-85 and that's not going to happen if we have high winds and rain.

[Darren.]

1 hour ago, Sam said:

Darren, looks like it will hit around Wilmington, NC.

Let's hope it goes out to sea.

I think my Lake Gaston tournament will be put on hold. Hope so as I am not going.

Stay tuned, Dave from Wxrisk.com is going to update his forecast later today and he has been on the money with hurricanes although this one has him somewhat perplexed.

And guys, when you look at Darren's map you will see two large lakes on the Virginia/North Carolina border. These are Buggs Island and Lake Gaston. You can see how close the storm is coming to them.

In addition, we have to tow our boats on I-85 and that's not going to happen if we have high winds and rain.

We spent a week at Gaston this summer. Fantastic lake,
though I did have success, it was mostly two pounds and
under. Didn't venture into big water in my kayak, stayed
mostly in Lizard Creek as our rental home was near it tho
on the main lake.

No way I'd want to be towing anything in high winds. I'm 
just nervous about the storm hitting while I'm out of town!

[Sam]

Sorry to write that the storm seems to be on a track to hit Virginia Friday night into Saturday.

No telling where he will make landfall.

All we can do is get ready and keep watching the TV and go to www.weatherunderground.com  for details.

Can you postpone your trip?

[Darren.]

43 minutes ago, Sam said:

Sorry to write that the storm seems to be on a track to hit Virginia Friday night into Saturday.

No telling where he will make landfall.

All we can do is get ready and keep watching the TV and go to www.weatherunderground.com  for details.

Can you postpone your trip?

If we get hit on Friday PM, then my flight likely *should* be 
postponed or cancelled. I can only hope, but per some of
the reports I've been watching (since last NHC update), it
will make landfall around 2pm at Wilmington, NC, Saturday.

Local weather reports are predicting gusts up to 35 here on
Sat/Sun ... not sure what they're looking at.

But from the 2 pm update to the 4 pm track update, it changed
quite a bit. So like you say, "no telling where" ...

[Sam]

Wednesday's updates will be more specific about the storm. Here is what we have to date.

From Dave at wxrisk.com.

Enjoy!

Sam

 

 

 

Wxrisk.com added 2 new photos.

 

After viewing the morning hurricane models as well as the European ensembles I am sure that there will be significant changes in language at 11:00 AM from the hurricane center in the discussion about what Matthew might do for the southeast US coastal areas and possibly into New England.

The GFS model as well as the GFS hurricane models all take Matthew west of Hatteras into eastern North Carolina making landfall over Myrtle Beach SC/ Wilmington North Carolina and tracking west of Hatteras and over NORFOLK / Hampton roads on Sunday. This is the track further inland which brings worse conditions into Hampton roads when compared to what the data was showing on Monday It also Places all of Eastern North Carolina on the eastern side of the hurricane which is often the stronger side on East Coast hurricanes.

For Hampton roads however IF hurricane Matthew makes landfall at or close to North Carolina then cuts across Eastern North Carolina this would allow for significant weakening for all of Southeastern Virginia. If this track from the 12z hurricane models were to hold and verify most of Hampton roads would not see hurricane conditions. There might be a few gusts up to hurricane force -- 74 mph th or greater and the coastal areas or out by the ocean but most areas in Hampton roads (where most people live) would probably not see winds over 75 mph in this sort of track. That doesn't mean it would not be bad --just not a disaster.

For Eastern North Carolina however this would be bad and all of the PAMLICO and ALBERMARLE sounds as well as the Outer banks and North Carolina would be significantly impacted .

It is still uncertain as to whether not Matthew will reach Southeast and New England. Many of the hurricane models & ENSEMBLES show a BEND to the east taking the system to the Southeast of Cape Cod Mass -- and we can also see that on the early Tuesday morning European ensembles.

MORE LATER

See More

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Sam]

Now it looks like the storm will miss Virginia and go out to sea.

Of course, the football games along the southeastern coast line may have to be postponed.

But wait! Check out the following for some fantastic information that I never have seen before.

This is from Dave Toleris early Wednesday morning. Can't wait for his 8 AM post.

 

 

Wxrisk.com

FOLKS too tired to post... will be up at 8am WED... need sleep.

The early Wednesday morning GFS model wants to keep hurricane Matthew around for an extended period of time. The new GFS brings Matthew into extremely close contact with the Central Florida Coast by Thursday evening and the eye is very close to the eastern and northeast coast of FL by Friday night and early Saturday morning.

The system turns to the north missing Savannah Georgia and then the GFS ...model turns Matthew to the Northeast. But instead of going towards Cape Hatteras the new GFS model turns hurricane Matthew due east by 8:00 PM Saturday evening when it is almost on top of Charleston South Carolina. From there the model takes Matthew due east out into the southwest Atlantic Ocean.

But the new GFS model on this early Wednesday morning shows the new change in the track of hurricane Matthew. By Sunday afternoon Matthew is turning to the SE then due SOUTH by Monday morning as it heads back towards Bahamas.!!! In Fact if you look at the new operational or regular GFS model on this early Wednesday morning it actually has Matthew taking a giant loop and moving moving back into the Bahamas 7 days from now.. By October 13 Matthew is almost hitting Miami and southeastern Florida.!!! The operational early Wednesday morning GFS model does not finally take hurricane Matthew out to sea until October 15 !!

This would be a very interesting hurricane track and one to be remembered for many years to come. Some of the GFS ensembles support a turn of Matthew back to the southeast and cords the Bahamas but other GFS individual members take hurricane Matthew out into the open Atlantic Ocean.

[Mike L]

I'm sitting here taking a break from making sand bags to protect my sons home which is on a barrier island on Florida's east coast from an expected 5ft storm surge.  My phone just went off with a hurricane warning alert, and we were just notified that a mandatory evacuation order has been issued for this area effective at 3:00 this afternoon! 

Things change quick 

 

 

Mike

[Darren.]

It is crazy how quickly this changed from yesterday. Thanks to
the big front pushing through faster than expected. 

But very unlucky for y'all in Florida. If it stays true to current
forecasts, there's a good bit of trouble coming your way. Like
watching an out of control semi coming down the highway, no
idea where it'll hit, but hit something it will.

Best wishes to everyone in FL, Georgia, and SC.

Get you and your family to safety, @Mike L! 

Not sure where Drudge got this pic from, or if it is legit, but
the headline is "Scary: The Skull of Matthew"

Edited October 5, 2016 by Darren.
added pic

[mrmacwvu1]

I am headed to Florida Sat morining I hope all is well when I get there.

[zachb34]

Watching the weather channel now, looks like we may be getting sustained winds around 75+ and gusts near 100. Being both florida born and raised, I know the forecast can and will change all day every day lol. 

[Felix77]

I am watching closely .... I have a trip to the Outer Banks on Saturday.   Resort is making the call today if they intend to close up shop.   Will be miserable if they do.  Was so looking forward to this trip.

[soflabasser]

Those who went through Hurricane Andrew in South Florida already know what to expect and are very prepared for this hurricane.Probably going fishing later this night, or after the hurricane passes my area.

[Mike L]

1 hour ago, Darren. said:

It is crazy how quickly this changed from yesterday. Thanks to
the big front pushing through faster than expected. 

But very unlucky for y'all in Florida. If it stays true to current
forecasts, there's a good bit of trouble coming your way. Like
watching an out of control semi coming down the highway, no
idea where it'll hit, but hit something it will.

Best wishes to everyone in FL, Georgia, and SC.

Get you and your family to safety, @Mike L! 

Not sure where Drudge got this pic from, or if it is legit, but
the headline is "Scary: The Skull of Matthew"

Thanks Pal!

Wow that's creepy! Just heard that it is expected to brush past Cape Canaveral which is 21 miles from my boys home. The local station is saying that we can expect sustained winds of 100+ mph starting tomorrow night. He lives about a mile from the ocean.

We're gonna head for my house on the SW Fla coast which isn't expected to be impacted like they're expecting here on the east side. 

To All you folks in its path,  get out!! Don't play with these things. I stayed home when Hurricane Charlie came up Charlotte Harbor in 2004 and swore then that I would never do it again!

Gotta go. I'm grabbing the grandkids, pictures off the wall, his rods and heading west. 

 

 

Mike

[Sam]

LSU and Florida are discussing bringing the game to Baton Rouge.

No way LSU can fly into Florida tomorrow or Friday and no way fans can get to the game.

My office assistant and her husband were run out of town (Orlando) and told to go home. Last I heard they were at the NC/SC border on I-95. Bummer for their vacation. They were going to visit the theme parks other than Disney World.

Everyone stay tuned as 17 computer models can't figure this one out and it is a dangerous storm.

[grizzly1654]

I'm supposed to be headed to Destin FL. early  Saturday morning. I wonder if it will be safe to go? The winds shouldn't be that bad that far west but i wonder about flooding?

[Sam]

According to latest map Destin should be OK.

The storm would really have to move a lot to the west to impact Destin.

Your  problem is flying, unless you are driving, and having a place to stay as the east coast of Florida is evacuated.

You should be OK.

Have a fun time.

 

 

And the LSU-Florida game will be played in Gainesville on Saturday.

[Sam]

 

11AM UPDATE MATTHEW AS FORECAST NOW A CAT 4 SUPER BAD NEWS FOR EAST COST OF FL

As we talked about early on Thursday morning Matthew has undergone significant significant intensification in the last 12 hours and is now solid category 4 Hurricane. I do not believe it willl make category 5 t before it makes landfall however. While the current atmosphere conditions over the Northwest Bahamas as it approaches the Florida Coast are ideal ... the conditions t...o the north across the Georgia and Carolina Coast are not.
The European model shows a 939 mb --- which is the current latest pressure reading from the aircraft reconnaissance as of 10:00 AM.- a category 4 hurricane at 8:00 PM on Thursday evening approaching the South Florida Coast. This is supported by the HWRF and GFDL models as well. I suppose it is possible that Matthew might drop to 930 mb bars before reaching landfall.

However if you look on the satellite picture you will see that the northwest portion of the hurricane appears to be getting disrupted as it is spreads into northwest into north FL and coasal GA. This is indicative of the strong shear winds which you can see on this image.

Also note that most of the hurricane models show significant weakening the next 48 hours be cause of the shear and because as the hurricane approaches land ... it will begin to pull in much drier Continental Air from GA AL which will be entrain into the core of the system. This will cause significant weakening in addition to the SHEAR .

That of course does not help FL --as you can see from this image from the early Thursday morning European model. Notice however that the very high severe damaging inds will be restricted to the immediate coastal areas and that the winds drop off dramatically over Central Florida and over the interior portions of the coast of Georgia and South Carolina.