Chances of catching a 10 pounder

["hamma"]

6 minutes ago, CarolinaBoy4Life said:

It's always sad to hear that the golden days are gone. Is it because of fishing pressure? What caused a lake or waters that were that great at producing to die off? Do you ever think those days will come back? Seems doubtful due to the # of people fishing and the damages done

"Could" be those lakes are cycling and its possible they may comeback. If Texas bass take 8-10 years to reach 13 lbs. it may take 14-18 for California lakes to grow more 20lbers,.. thats a long time of fishing pressure,.. so say maybe 25- 30 to rebound? ,....just guessing

From what I read years ago those cali fish are feeding on "kokanee? trout", Rainbow trout are stocked here and theres some big bass in most of those ponds, but the biggest bass here arent feeding on trout, its another protein rich baitfish combined with the right environment thats key. But my point is , if the bass got to those sizes before,.. why wouldnt they again? Maybe the strain is compromised? Fishing pressure can do some damage im sure. But big fish dont get big by being stupid, they've been caught and released before.

   Now that its being discussed and I think of it!!!

 Here we have alot of,... ummm,... "foriegn bobber fisherman" that are meat fishing with shiners, and once a lake is said to hold big fish? You can bet they will be lining the shores, taking every pig they catch home for din din. Im 100% positive those same ethnic fisherman live in Cali as well. Therein may be the issue to begin with, and if so,.. eventually the powers that be out there will have to set slot limits and patrol them before things rebound. 

Thats what its taken to "somewhat" rebound the striper fishing here.

[Bass_Fanatic]

I fish Toledo Bend a lot. I live 2 hours away, so I don't get up ere as much as I wish, but make the trip almost weekly.  One thing I am noticing lately is that the same DD bass are being caught from the same areas. Ere are community holes such as the Indian mounds, housen bay, and Magee flats that are fished hard and that's where the majority of these big bass are being caught.  What I try to do is find unnoticed spots near the Sabine River and fish for bass that hasn't seen a thousand lures already.  By doing is, I have caught 3 DD bass, but there is no telling how many more are swimming around in the 100,000 acres of the lake that never gets fished.  

[blckshirt98]

Out in Cali I know some of the waters that have produced larger bass in the past have had their ecosystem tweaked - like stripers taking over Castaic, or a total end or severe reduction on trout stocking in MANY places up and down the entire state.  Coyote Reservoir in Santa Clara county has been known as the best shot at a local DD, as it produces a few each year, but once they completely stopped stocking trout the DD numbers have plummeted..  As the larger fish die off the smaller fish either never make it to DD age or the forage just isn't there for enough to get to DD size.

[WRB]

It's hard to imagine how small SoCal trophy bass lakes are; 1,000 to  2,000 acres at full pool. All these lakes are within 1 hour drive from big populated cities and local bass tournaments every weekend along with general public recreational fishing. The term high pressure fishing discribed these lakes year around.

California doesn't manage bass populations, no bass hatcheries, no restocking program bass are on their own outside of a 12" minimum length and 5 bass limit state wide. When a new lake is created bass are transplanted from a existing lake. 

The Florida bass in CA came from Cypress Gardens Florida area back in 1959 by Orvile Ball the city manager from San Diego to improve the city lakes bass fishing, the state DFW had nothing to do with the introduction of FLMB.

Our lake have always experienced boom & bust cycles due to over harvesting and drought that lose year classes from draw down during the spawn cycle, very little cover ....our lake primary use is water storage for consumer use.

Northern CA is like a different state, lots of water, bigger lakes with lower fishing pressure, the bass populations do a lot better, however colder water than SoCal.

Stripe bass have severely impacted some SoCal lakes like Castaic, not enough biomass for both predators to grow well combined with no trout stocking over the past 6 years. Trout stocking has resumed on a limited bases this year.

When I was fortunate to catch a lot of giant bass was during the late 80' to early 90's when the populations were good and fewer knowledgable bass angler targeted those big bass.

Still catch a few DD each year, just not Giants over 15 lbs since 2006.

Tom

[CarolinaBoy4Life]

Seems strange that they wouldn't invest in the bass fishing in the state known for big bass. I'm sure the state draws $$$ from the thousands of anglers fishing for trophy sized bass. 

[Catt]

There are other states that are implementing a Sharelunker type programs. 

Louisiana is one but the minimum requirement is 10 lbs instead of Texas's 13 lbs. These fingerlings are also going back into Toledo Bend along with the fingerlings from Texas.

Most people including biologist believe that any bass is capable of obtaining DD status but the Sharelunker's genetic testing has proven that to be false.

Here's an interesting story from the Houston Chronicle:
In December 2004, Jerry Campos was fishing for bass on Falcon Lake in Laredo and he caught a 14-pound largemouth bass, later named the ShareLunker 370.

Nine years later, Allen Lane Kruse of Nacogdoches set a water-body and catch-and-release record for Lake Naconiche when he caught the 12.54 pound bass. DNA testing showed that the recent catch is the son of ShareLunker 370, which spawned at the Texas Freshwater Fisheries Center in Athens. Campos had entered his fish into a "ShareLunker" program, which allows catchers to share their prize fish with others. Fingerlings from the program that spawned have stocked into more than 60 reservoirs across Texas.

According to the story, the Lake Naconiche fish has all sorts of connections to the Texas Sharelunker program, including a father that was caught at Lake Fork in 2000, a grandmother caught from Lake Fork in 1994 and a great grandmother that came from Gibbons Creek lake way back in 1988. The Lake Naconiche record fish's mother produced over 12,000 fingerlings that were stocked all over the state, but the fish caught at Naconiche was actually one of 173 adult bass that were released into the lake in 2009

["hamma"]

1 hour ago, CarolinaBoy4Life said:

4 minutes ago, WRB said:

It's hard to imagine how small SoCal trophy bass lakes are; 1,000 to  2,000 acres at full pool. All these lakes are within 1 hour drive from big populated cities and local bass tournaments every weekend along with general public recreational fishing. The term high pressure fishing discribed these lakes year around.

California doesn't manage bass populations, no bass hatcheries, no restocking program bass are on their own outside of a 12" minimum length and 5 bass limit state wide. When a new lake is created bass are transplanted from a existing lake. 

The Florida bass in CA came from Cypress Gardens Florida area back in 1959 by Orvile Ball the city manager from San Diego to improve the city lakes bass fishing, the state DFW had nothing to do with the introduction of FLMB.

Our lake have always experienced boom & bust cycles due to over harvesting and drought that lose year classes from draw down during the spawn cycle, very little cover ....our lake primary use is water storage for consumer use.

Northern CA is like a different state, lots of water, bigger lakes with lower fishing pressure, the bass populations do a lot better, however colder water than SoCal.

Stripe bass have severely impacted some SoCal lakes like Castaic, not enough biomass for both predators to grow well combined with no trout stocking over the past 6 years. Trout stocking has resumed on a limited bases this year.

When I was fortunate to catch a lot of giant bass was during the late 80' to early 90's when the populations were good and fewer knowledgable bass angler targeted those big bass.

Still catch a few DD each year, just not Giants over 15 lbs since 2006.

Tom

I have a better understanding now Tom,..Thanks

that really puts it in perspective,  its unfortunate that they dont pay more attention to the bass fishing industry,..its a big industry that boosts alot of money and generates alot of tax dollars.

On another note

 I find it amazing that, Texas big bass lakes are gigantic impoundments. Californias are 1-2 k acres,(signifcantly smaller),..... Up here? I think the largest lake I've caught a 10 lb fish in was no more than 600 acres, with the smallest being no more than 100,.. But then yet Cali and Texas, dont have the forage base/biodiversity we do. We may have a much shorter growing season, therefore a shorter fishing opportunity. As for numbers of anglers? Boston and surrounding suburbs? More anglers than you'd think in such a small area. Im not touting NE bass, or its anglers compare by any means, it just amazes me the way nature works. Our fish are smaller, but seemingly more elusive.

 but to really put it into perspective?

 the shear size of your bass,....simply incredable.  My pb 12.5 lb was a monster (in my opinion) I put both my fists fit in its mouth before my buddy held the scale up, and it looked morphed, almost not bass like, huge hump on its back, grimacing jawline, and a full belly, that looked like a small grocery store plastic bag filled to its brim, ready to burst. I can only imagine what a 18, or 22 lb bass looks like.

[Poolshark]

On April 27, 2016 at 8:48 PM, clh121787 said:

I read an article that a statistician put together. Took into account averge trips of an avid angler, area, many more variables and figured the avid fisherman in the states has a 3 percent chance in his or her life. I believe he figured 52 trips a year 8 hours a trip. A figured for the whole united states. If you live in Texas your chances greatly increase to 19 percent. I believe he wrote Indiana the avid angler has a .3 percent chance at a d.d. it was very interesting. It got picked apart on the forum but it was cool to read. I wish I could find it to repost.

The odds are slim anywhere. I live in florida and have logged every bass ive caught in the past two years and have caught one bass weighing over 10 pounds and two bass weighing 9 and change. This is out of hundreds of bass caught. I will say this... Ive noticed alot more big bass on 10+ inch worms and big spinnerbaits when i can get them to hit. Also, im sure that live bait can increase your odds. 19% seems like a high estimate to me. Unless you are specifically targeting the giants. 

[Gilgamesh]

On 4/27/2016 at 8:33 AM, Turtle135 said:

If your state record largemouth bass is less than 12 pounds your odds are a lot worse. Most bodies of water in your state will not contain a single DD bass for you to catch. 

Wow thats really rough.  Never realized there were whole states w/out d.d bass in them

[d-camarena]

No texas?

[jr231]

Caught my PB in ohio. A little over 8 pounds and 23 inches long . Out of a 3 acre farm pond. 

[missouribigbass]

On ‎4‎/‎26‎/‎2016 at 9:40 PM, Eric Montes Polk FL said:

That statistic has to be flawed. I've gotten over 30 bass 10 plus lbs. It really depends on tour knowledge of the fish. I can nearly look at a lake and pin point the heavy hold areas. Study the area and natural bait then adjust your tackle to suit. Mearly throwing a lure and hoping for big gurls to hit wont do it. If you dont start to catalog events and bites along with water conditions and weather you will never obtain the knowledge necessary to properly pick the bodies of water apart. Using basic bass behavior knowledge then forming your own style is key. I wish you all the best of luck in your chase for a trophy. TIGHT LINES 

I don't believe those statistics are flawed. May seem that way to a Florida fisherman. Come north and you'll see the pursuit of a DD bass here is much different than in Florida.

[hoosierbass07]

 I caught a 6.1 pound a few weeks ago here in Indiana.  I consider that bass my version of a ten pound bass.  I figure my odds of catching a real DD bass is zero. 

[joeblowwwww]

On 4/26/2016 at 5:48 PM, clh121787 said:

I read an article that a statistician put together. Took into account averge trips of an avid angler, area, many more variables and figured the avid fisherman in the states has a 3 percent chance in his or her life. I believe he figured 52 trips a year 8 hours a trip. A figured for the whole united states. If you live in Texas your chances greatly increase to 19 percent. I believe he wrote Indiana the avid angler has a .3 percent chance at a d.d. it was very interesting. It got picked apart on the forum but it was cool to read. I wish I could find it to repost.

what about California?

[Mr. Aquarium]

its crazy to see how many  big 5 6 and 7lbsers are caught from my home state of Massachusetts! yea thats small compared to down south but for up north thats great!  

a lot goes into producing a DD, food and weather are huge. most people think of the north as cold and snowy! but on the coast of MA, we are lucky if we get snow and ice! last year we didnt have any ice and snow! so the bass could keep growing!  we have many lakes with herring golden shiners and trout! we also have ton of deep woods remote ponds that are not accessible.
theres alot more 10lbser out there then we think! but they dont get to be 10s by being stupid!   

[A-Jay]

1 hour ago, swamp hawgs said:

its crazy to see how many  big 5 6 and 7lbsers are caught from my home state of Massachusetts! yea thats small compared to down south but for up north thats great!  

a lot goes into producing a DD, food and weather are huge. most people think of the north as cold and snowy! but on the coast of MA, we are lucky if we get snow and ice! last year we didnt have any ice and snow! so the bass could keep growing!  we have many lakes with herring golden shiners and trout! we also have ton of deep woods remote ponds that are not accessible.
theres alot more 10lbser out there then we think! but they dont get to be 10s by being stupid!   

Although I'd agree that the largest Bass are often the wariest, in places where DD bass live - they are caught.

I grew up there (MA) ~ until we start seeing a few MA DD bass hanging or sitting on a certified scale - you're assertion is just that - an assertion.

A-Jay

[soflabasser]

Great subject.I have been very fortunate in bass fishing and have caught a few bass 10 pounds or bigger(weighed on a scale).What has helped me the most is putting in my time on the water using what I know to the best of my ability.Anyone has a much bigger chance of catching a 10 pounder if he/she puts in their time wisely in locations where there are 10 pound bass.Its all about being in the right place,at the right time,using the right tactics.With that said,I know many bass fishermen down here who have fished much longer than me and haven't caught a single bass over 8,let alone a 10,so 10 pounders aren't as easy to catch down here as some may think.

[HeavyDluxe]

I think that statistic, as a national average for all anglers (regardless of skill), sounds about right.

Just do the math on how many fish likely see your lure on any given day and choose, for whatever reason, not to bite.  Catching a DD bass in any place is a pretty decent achievement.  One only needs to watch the reaction of very seasoned and/or professional anglers when they hook anything we'd call "big" to know that's the case.

Of course applying some keen, human smarts to the task of hunting big fish will help massage the odds for you. But it still won't make it common or 'normal' (mathematically speaking). If you've been to Vegas enough, you'll eventually see someone make an unusually crazy string of wins at the craps table.  That's statistical anomaly that washes out in the big picture, not skill.

[blckshirt98]

DD bass are not easy to find/catch!  Keep in mind the Elites and FLW guys catch tens of thousands of bass every year and you would be lucky to see one DD bass a season between the two circuits.  I think the last DD bass I remember is Chris Zaldain's at the Elite CA Delta tourney last year.  Anyone have any stats on how many DD bass have been caught on the pro circuits the past few years?

["hamma"]

No Idea how many are caught on the circuits, But consider the pros are "usually" cruising the shore with the trolling motor on 10, both lcr's on, searching for a hit. Not many of them are actually being stealthy about their approach. Big fish see that stuff coming a mile away. Of course it could happen,... but highly unlikely. Any pig I caught was caught in "the perfect scenerio" no lcr's ticking away, the trolling motor only used for direction,(using the wind to move) sun to my back,  most using a previlant baitfish patterned lure,.. with ton of luck added in there,.. and so on, the only exception to that was my biggest came on a spinnerbait. ( along with all the other criteria).

 I can see how many would doubt the availability of such a big bass being present in "any" lake, Its not a common thing.  But the truth is there is just as much chance of one being there then not. Most anglers are doubtful due to the lack of evidence in their face, or a pic. Consider most bass anglers arent fishing in such a manner to produce such a fish. They are rushing along down the bank with the tm on high, tossing a bait "they" like at any visible cover (that gets pounded daily)  probably flipping or pitching all the while touching the bait with their hands and not adding any scent. a lcr on high sensitivity ticking away like a old grandfather clock in a quiet room. dropping stuff on the boats deck and slamming hatches in a hurry to catch that big fish they heard was released after weighed. with the sun in their face and wearing a bright orange t shirt.

 I got news for ya,....if this sounds like you? The chances of you catching a 10 pounder are greatly deminished.

 Did you ever watch a wading bird seeking minnows? He's not thrashing about in the water, hes quiet, he searches correctly with the sun to his back, using the weeds to mask himself, his strike is quick and quiet. and he is patient. this is how he feeds and its what works. big fish need the same dedication, and delicate approach.

So what have we learned?  1)  tournies arent optimum times for a 10 pounder to be caught to begin with. Being patient is a huge requirement for a dd fish,.2)  .in a t your actually "racing" against the clock. you kinda need the lcr on at all times to help figure out a pattern, you kinda need to search out the fish on highspeed. maybe you can slow down and turn off the lcr once you figured out the pattern,. but to figure one out within just an hour or two is a stroke of luck. 3) dd bass are a different breed, they need to be fished in a different manner to be tricked so easily into hitting a "lure".

 Just because you havent caught one doesnt mean they arent in your lake, they very well could be. if you really want to catch a dd bass,...fish where they are, put some consideration into the equation, and most of all be stealthy about it. the moment you drop them needlenose pliers on the floor of your uncarpeted johnboat,..you're done. Once you alert them your there,..you're done.,...once you decide to fish in the wrong direction,..you're done. Leave the lcr off, only use the trolling motor when need be. and at that??? as slow as possible. And by all means use a bait thats known for big fish. I go with a jig and pig.,... if there are no crayfish there,.. use a baitfish pattern thats actually in that lake.

 Big fish are smart, if you're not? sorry,... your chances are nil,....lol

 

[Fish411]

1st post on BR so I'll do push-ups after posting but "Hamma's" post was spot-on and wanted to share my experience ref stealth for lunkers.  For the past five years my son and I have fished very intently for LMB from kayaks and have enjoyed what I would call "better than average luck".  He has caught 1x 10.7lbs, 2x >9lbs, several well over 8lbs all on artificials and in just five short years from lakes in NC and most recently in IL where he is going to college .  I have watched him patiently stalk a bass boat waiting for them to leave a brush pile empty only for him to pull 7, 8, or 9 pounders off of it as the bass boaters scratch their heads in disbelief.  I have tried to determine what it is that he/we are doing different and I can attribute much of it to the stealth of a kayak (pedal not paddle) and lack of electronics (motors, FF, etc).  He certainly reads a tremendous amount on bass fishing (zoology major) and goes about lure selection very analytically and apparently with much success but to pull bass of those age groups from public waters out of a kayak in states no further south than NC or west than IL he's doing something right.  Another observation is that those bass are actually in heavily fished public lakes, nothing special or out of the ordinary outside of the kayak.  Would be interested if others have experienced the same, obviously many DD LMB are taken from boats of all sizes  with various electronics but the numbers he is putting over the yak gunwhale seems, at least from my perspective, as a bit abnormal.

[A-Jay]

21 hours ago, Fish411 said:

1st post on BR so I'll do push-ups after posting but "Hamma's" post was spot-on and wanted to share my experience ref stealth for lunkers.  For the past five years my son and I have fished very intently for LMB from kayaks and have enjoyed what I would call "better than average luck".  He has caught 1x 10.7lbs, 2x >9lbs, several well over 8lbs all on artificials and in just five short years from lakes in NC and most recently in IL where he is going to college .  I have watched him patiently stalk a bass boat waiting for them to leave a brush pile empty only for him to pull 7, 8, or 9 pounders off of it as the bass boaters scratch their heads in disbelief.  I have tried to determine what it is that he/we are doing different and I can attribute much of it to the stealth of a kayak (pedal not paddle) and lack of electronics (motors, FF, etc).  He certainly reads a tremendous amount on bass fishing (zoology major) and goes about lure selection very analytically and apparently with much success but to pull bass of those age groups from public waters out of a kayak in states no further south than NC or west than IL he's doing something right.  Another observation is that those bass are actually in heavily fished public lakes, nothing special or out of the ordinary outside of the kayak.  Would be interested if others have experienced the same, obviously many DD LMB are taken from boats of all sizes  with various electronics but the numbers he is putting over the yak gunwhale seems, at least from my perspective, as a bit abnormal.

Hello and Welcome to Bass Resources ~

In places where Big Bass live, they can and are caught.  Sounds like you're experiencing some of that.

 And Now, It's Picture time.

A-Jay

[scaleface]

I just heard of another 10 lb bass being caught from a local lake .I'll believe it when I see it . At least a photo .

[Nice_Bass]

What are my chances...?

a hell of a lot better this weekend when I drive over to Missouri! 

[hoosierbass07]

21 hours ago, Keith "Hamma" Hatch said:

,.. with ton of luck added in there,..

 

   And that is my key ingredient.  Luck!