Chances of catching a 10 pounder

[Catt]

According to Texas Sharelunker Biologist bass ten pounds & under may not have the genetics required to grow any larger, which is why they start at 13 lbs.

[WRB]

1 hour ago, Paul Roberts said:

Bingo! This provides a useful statistic, and a big essentially zero percent chance of a DD for over half the country. You can start running your fancy stats from there (essentially South). Still not sure why BASS "Lunker Club" starts at DD. No one seems to notice??

B.A.S.S. Original Lunker club started at 6 lbs., still have the decal on my old tackle box.

Tom

[A-Jay]

1 hour ago, Catt said:

According to Texas Sharelunker Biologist bass ten pounds & under may not have the genetics required to grow any larger, which is why they start at 13 lbs.

On even the most basic level - that's a little crazy  - Good, But still Crazy

A-Jay

[WRB]

1 hour ago, Catt said:

According to Texas Sharelunker Biologist bass ten pounds & under may not have the genetics required to grow any larger, which is why they start at 13 lbs.

The Pisces club in 1970 establish a trophy size bass award as a "teener" 13 lbs and up.

I think that is a good bench mark for FLMB strains.

Tom

[Catt]

1 hour ago, A-Jay said:

On even the most basic level - that's a little crazy  - Good, But still Crazy

A-Jay

 

1 hour ago, WRB said:

The Pisces club in 1970 establish a trophy size bass award as a "teener" 13 lbs and up.

I think that is a good bench mark for FLMB strains.

Tom

Most people believe any bass can obtain double digit size, TP&W biologist have observational data showing not all bass can obtain that status. They've shown 7-9 lb bass that never grew beyond that weight & 10-11 lb bass that never grew any bigger.

This is why the Sharelunker program only selects 13 lb bass as their breed stock. Their research also shows the males genes are just as important.

[A-Jay]

13 minutes ago, Catt said:

 

Their research also shows the males genes are just as important.

Of course they are.

A-Jay

[Airman4754]

12 hours ago, scaleface said:

Wait . you can guess the weight of the fish  shown on a fishfinder ? I cant even tell what kind of fish they are .

Yes. ODFW has ruined the trout fishery in lakes here. There are 8" planter rainbows and bass for the most part. A small number of lakes have German Browns and three lakes have lake trout but none of those have bass. There are only bullheads in lakes and the state record is 4lbs so no luck there. 

So, I know what is in the lakes I fish. The little school of turd trout in 15 feet of water are a dead giveaway. Everything else is a bass. Where I was last weekend has planters and LMB. I catch a lot of fish vertical drop shotting with my electronics so I know about how big the line is from experience. 

[BassObsessed]

4 hours ago, SHIMANOFAN said:

West Lake Toho in Kissimmee. Not sure it's the best but that's how they advertise and I do well on it usually. ?

I'm right there with you on West Toho being the best for giants in Fl.

[Paul Roberts]

3 hours ago, WRB said:

B.A.S.S. Original Lunker club started at 6 lbs., still have the decal on my old tackle box.

Tom

Not anymore; Not for quite some time:

https://www.bassmaster.com/sites/default/files/attachments/2016/04/lunkerclub_2016.pdf

"Membership in the Bassmaster Lunker Club™ is open to BASS members who catch a largemouth bass weighing 10 pounds or more, or a smallmouth bass weighing 6 pounds or more, and who meet the following requirements: ..."

[.ghoti.]

On 4/27/2016 at 10:03 PM, A-Jay said:

Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

I will admit to having Zero belief that this or any Statistician could ever come close to quantifying such a thing without making numerous assumptions.  Can't be done with any accuracy.

The number on way to improve one's chance to catch trophy fish, is to fish where they live.

Clearly not a guarantee, but if they're not there you have no chance.

Put a dedicated & determined "Average" angler on a body of water with above average bass - you'd be surprised what can happen.

A-Jay

 

 

There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics. - Mark Twain

[South FLA]

On 4/28/2016 at 11:56 PM, hawgenvy said:

I definitely want to bass fish in Cuba. Didn't know about it, just looked it up, sounds awesome. Thanks for mentioning that. You been there?

No my family high tailed it out of there when the Castor regime, came knocking on the door and confiscated all of my father's property (farm, vehicles, and arms) for the the good of the people, so I refuse to go back until they return our property.  However, family members I have in Cuba say the fishing is excellent if you are a tourist, as they do not allow locals to fish the reservoirs , unless you are ranking governing official, know someone, or work for the government as a guide.   

[bassguytom]

Up here in the north we count anything over 8lbs. as a 10lb. bass. That way we are still in the running and can stay in the conversation. 

[hawgenvy]

8 hours ago, South FLA said:

No my family high tailed it out of there when the Castor regime, came knocking on the door and confiscated all of my father's property (farm, vehicles, and arms) for the the good of the people, so I refuse to go back until they return our property.  However, family members I have in Cuba say the fishing is excellent if you are a tourist, as they do not allow locals to fish the reservoirs , unless you are ranking governing official, know someone, or work for the government as a guide.   

Well, that's a creepy way to reduce fishing pressure. I think I'd feel uneasy taking advantage of that situation. I have lots of Cuban American friends and I know about the justified bitterness many feel. Anyway, maybe salt fishing if I ever manage to get there -- and good food and music.

[Fisher-O-men]

On 5/9/2016 at 7:18 AM, .ghoti. said:

There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics. - Mark Twain

Another:  Figures don't lie but liars sure do figure.

[Master Bait'r]

On 4/27/2016 at 11:33 AM, Turtle135 said:

If your state record largemouth bass is less than 12 pounds your odds are a lot worse. Most bodies of water in your state will not contain a single DD bass for you to catch. 

 

 

Also you've got to include outliers like my home state of Massachusetts, nobody will ever beat the state record, or even come relatively close for that matter.  15lbs 8oz?  Yeah right.  Even my dreams are like "1,000 ft Golden temple to the left- 16lb bass?  Forget it man."

[Turtle135]

16 minutes ago, Master Bait'r said:

Also you've got to include outliers like my home state of Massachusetts, nobody will ever beat the state record, or even come relatively close for that matter.  15lbs 8oz?  Yeah right.  Even my dreams are like "1,000 ft Golden temple to the left- 16lb bass?  Forget it man."

What do you mean? I routinely catch bass in excess of 15 pounds when I ice fish! 

[Master Bait'r]

1 minute ago, Turtle135 said:

What do you mean? I routinely catch bass in excess of 15 pounds when I ice fish! 

 

I mean, uh...  Yeah.  Me too!  Twice this week already I just don't want to give away my secret stash!  

["hamma"]

If you were to fish the right waters up here, you may be surprised. My biggest in Massachusetts bass weighted 12.5,,.. and since then ive seen bigger fish swim away after following my lure., leave a dock,. and broken off. .And this has happened a few times in different lakes,.... they are here, its just a matter of placement, timing, opportunity, and stealth. Its much like hunting/stalking a huge buck. Eventually it will happen

 I'll give you that its going to be a tall order, a 16 lbr in a northern state sounds ify. Would take a long time for a bass up here to get that big.,... But,... there a couple dozen certain waters in our state that have the "secret" ability to produce monsters., And yes,.. im keeping the secret with me till i can officially weight in one at a state certified station. So dont bother asking, badgering, or berating me for it. I wont give it up

 Walter's state record fish was stalked by him,. he knew it was there, and he targeted that fish thru the ice and got lucky one cold day. State records show he caught that fish in Sampsons pond. From what talk is,,.. he caught it elsewhere. He just didn't want the true place getting pounded, And if you think about it, Consider how any bass guys are in this state? Just tournament anglers alone??  when I was tourney fishing there was at least 1500,. Mass Bass was booming, as well as Aba. Neba, and a few other t orginizations. And thats not counting the anglers that dont "t" fish

.i cant say i blame him,....... I understand the doubt,....but I strongly believe it can be done

Even if it doesnt get broken? im gunna have fun tryin

[Master Bait'r]

1 hour ago, Keith "Hamma" Hatch said:

If you were to fish the right waters up here, you may be surprised. My biggest in Massachusetts bass weighted 12.5,,.. and since then ive seen bigger fish swim away after following my lure., leave a dock,. and broken off. .And this has happened a few times in different lakes,.... they are here, its just a matter of placement, timing, opportunity, and stealth. Its much like hunting/stalking a huge buck. Eventually it will happen

 I'll give you that its going to be a tall order, a 16 lbr in a northern state sounds ify. Would take a long time for a bass up here to get that big.,... But,... there a couple dozen certain waters in our state that have the "secret" ability to produce monsters., And yes,.. im keeping the secret with me till i can officially weight in one at a state certified station. So dont bother asking, badgering, or berating me for it. I wont give it up

 Walter's state record fish was stalked by him,. he knew it was there, and he targeted that fish thru the ice and got lucky one cold day. State records show he caught that fish in Sampsons pond. From what talk is,,.. he caught it elsewhere. He just didn't want the true place getting pounded, And if you think about it, Consider how any bass guys are in this state? Just tournament anglers alone??  when I was tourney fishing there was at least 1500,. Mass Bass was booming, as well as Aba. Neba, and a few other t orginizations. And thats not counting the anglers that dont "t" fish

.i cant say i blame him,....... I understand the doubt,....but I strongly believe it can be done

Even if it doesnt get broken? im gunna have fun tryin

 

Well I'm not going to sop trying fwiw despite my doubts that I may never break DD in the state ?

 

 

[Ratherbfishing]

To borrow a line from John Candy (in Planes, Trains, and Automobiles), I'd have a better chance of playing pickup sticks with my butt cheeks than catching a ten pounder.  Even a five pounder is quite the rare "bird."  Fortunately, that has never been a goal of mine.  

[corn-on-the-rob]

Even Ohio's record largemouth is 13.13 lbs, a homegrown private fish. Breaking 10lbs either species in ohio is beyond extremely low, unless it's a test tube bass.

[Hog Basser]

Arkansas record is 16 lbs. 8 oz. set in 1976 (this was broken, but it didn't count because the guy ran out and bought a fishing license after he caught it), I'm working on growing double-digits in my own lake and may already have some.  Maybe I can get one up to record size eventually with a lot of coaxing.  

[Brayberry]

That Massachusetts state record will never be broken.  Their record alone is bigger then 39 other states records, and it's the largest bass caught above Virginia I believe.  

[massrob]

It would be amazing to catch a fish that big in Massachusetts i caught a 6lber a couple weeks ago and thats the biggest I've ever caught here. Some places around me seem to have giant fish in them though my favorite spot one year i caught 6 fish over 5lbs and it was my first year fishing so i didn't know what i was doing. I cant wait to get on that pond tomorrow hopefully i break the record haha yea right but we can dream

[Slade House]

Here is the thing, southern california  has the best chance of producing DD bass hands down period.  Here is why, take the lake closest to me .   

1.  The water temperature never gets below 54 degrees and it never ever gets above 76 degrees period .  Unlike Florida and Texas where that summer humidity gets the temps up to where the bass slow down.  they are in "getting bigger mode" all year long.  seriously.  

2.  Food Food Food.   They eat fatty rich ranibow trout, crawfish, redear sunfish, and some of the biggest fricking threadfin shad on the planet.  good good diet.  plus they are no striped bass in this lake.   

the average winning weight in tournaments is around 22lbs.  if you get 21.8 lbs you should be good.   it used to be 30-45 lb tournament sacks .    

besides that lake, they're are 2 or 3 in SO Cal that produce 9-10lb catches on a weekly basis.  Here is the thing many DD catches in SoCal they don't report them or let the world know about them.  I know of some 12 and 13lbers caught but mums the word.  

one more thing, i fished my entire life in Viriginia on the potomac and all the lakes and ponds,and the biggest i could ever catch was 6lbs in 15 years fishing.  i catch a 6lb bass a week where i live now (when i was fishing every day in 2014).