Chances of catching a 10 pounder

[CarolinaBoy4Life]

While I agree your odds in certain states go up I don't believe everything in that. Fishing in NC isn't the top rated fishing in the country but there are bigger fish here. I know a guy who is basically a big bass hunter in an old tracker and he catches DD fairly regular. But he goes out and targets them specifically. He fishes where the larger bass are positioned in the lake. He has studied and planned and fished for hours on end. But he literally catches a large fish about once a month or more. The only difference between he and many of the other fisherman that fish the same waters is he is willing to put in the time to learn when how and where and why. He has had many days where 0 fish is the result. 

[Catt]

8 minutes ago, Senko lover said:

And I'll bet a good quarter of them were caught by you 

Nah! Had 2 on this year & let wrap me in the tules!

Wasn't on Toledo

[Senko lover]

5 minutes ago, Catt said:

Nah! Had 2 on this year & let wrap me in the tules!

Wasn't on Toledo

To anyone else I'd say the ones that get away are always DD, but I trust your judgement  

[Airman4754]

As far as I know there have been seven double digit bass caught in Oregon and a couple of those were the same fish in the guy's private pond. 

I had one on my finder in 35ft of water last weekend that I know was pushing 10lbs. 

I'll do it here, I'm not sure when, but I will do it. I've caught well over 25 fish that would be 70% or more of the state record fish's weight (non-private pond record) and I'm in my early 30's. 

[Deleted account]

I fish my local holes a lot, and have a different theory. I think there are enough fish at or over 10 lbs in most places to make it possible for someone who knows what they are doing, and puts in the time. Not to brag, but as a point of reference, I've caught 10 lb fish in NY, MD, and NJ. I've even caught the same one twice. I mostly fish for numbers, but when the windows open for the trophies, I'll commit to that. I think finding good water, then learning it, really learning it, is the key. Sure, if you are lucky enough to live near and have frequent access to the well know large fish waters in the south and west, that's great, and will make it that more likely. But I think too many folks think there aren't any or enough big fish local to them to make the effort worth while. I know quite a few guys that do better than I, most keep it really quiet, lest you get all the DE plates parking in the neighborhood, and the cameras on the head thing...

[MikeOGNR]

18 hours ago, Eric Montes Polk FL said:

That statistic has to be flawed. I've gotten over 30 bass 10 plus lbs. It really depends on tour knowledge of the fish. I can nearly look at a lake and pin point the heavy hold areas. Study the area and natural bait then adjust your tackle to suit. Mearly throwing a lure and hoping for big gurls to hit wont do it. If you dont start to catalog events and bites along with water conditions and weather you will never obtain the knowledge necessary to properly pick the bodies of water apart. Using basic bass behavior knowledge then forming your own style is key. I wish you all the best of luck in your chase for a trophy. TIGHT LINES 

Eric is actually a disciple of Jesus himself just in bass catching form so that don't count. Lol just kidding nice fish buddy keep slaying umm

[SHIMANOFAN]

I haven't broken double digits yet but I've gotten within ounces on several occasions. Of course I live within about 4 miles of a boat ramp on the "Best bass fishing lake in Florida". But anyway statistics aside the law of averages reigns if you fish long and often enough you're bound to get a big'un in the boat eventually.

[WRB]

Where I fish a DD bass doesn't set the bar, I consider bass 15 lbs and up to be giant bass.

We no longer have the big bass populations in SoCal today we had a decade ago, so should reevaluate my 15 lb benchmark!

The vast majority of my giant bass were caught during pre spawn between Jan to March. During pre spawn I fish alone most of the time because fishing for these rare bass requires staying focused and when I fish with a partner my attention gets diverted.

Another odd thing is I haven't caught a giant bass at night, lots of DD's and the same thing is true from May to Dec. I haven't fished at night during pre spawn because our lakes are closed at sundown and don't open for nights until after May.

If you want to catch big bass fish for them!

Tom

[BassObsessed]

3 hours ago, SHIMANOFAN said:

I haven't broken double digits yet but I've gotten within ounces on several occasions. Of course I live within about 4 miles of a boat ramp on the "Best bass fishing lake in Florida". But anyway statistics aside the law of averages reigns if you fish long and often enough you're bound to get a big'un in the boat eventually.

Which lake were you referring to?

 

[Catt]

5 hours ago, Senko lover said:

To anyone else I'd say the ones that get away are always DD, but I trust your judgement  

When you set hook & they set hook back & go through tules like a hot knife through butter they Hawgs!

[WRB]

13 minutes ago, Catt said:

When you set hook & they set hook back & go through tules like a hot knife through butter they Hawgs!

When you know a big bass is in or around cover remember they will run against the pressure of your rod, it's up to you to plan in advance where the bass will go and position yourself so they run out instead of into cover....if possible...or you will loose the battle.

Tom

[avidone1]

6 hours ago, geo g said:

I believe those odds are right on, unless you are fishing those unique waters that hold an unusual amount of big bass.  Places like the Stick Marsh in Florida where double digits are caught almost everyday by someone.  Your odds can go way up if you fish those waters.

Stick marsh does hold lots of bass and the big ones are in there, but it's like any other lake.   There are days when even the 'regulars' who have intimate knowledge of the lake and share info with each other have a hard time catching anything let alone dd's.

As for the average visiting angler stickmarsh has broken a lot of hearts

[geo g]

42 minutes ago, avidone1 said:

Stick marsh does hold lots of bass and the big ones are in there, but it's like any other lake.   There are days when even the 'regulars' who have intimate knowledge of the lake and share info with each other have a hard time catching anything let alone dd's.

As for the average visiting angler stickmarsh has broken a lot of hearts

You are right, even the stick marsh is slow at times.  I have fished it 4 times and had great days 3 out of the four.  The one slow day the wind had blown hard for a week, and the place was super muddy.  Another day my buddy, who lives next to the Marsh, had 5 fish between 7,5 and 9.7 pounds.  I had a 6.7, 6.5, 6.0. and a couple of 5's..  We caught at least 40 bass total.  The big one was not DD, but darn close.  Bruce's personal best is over 13.  The other decent days were not as big but plentiful.  It is a super fishery and if you fished it regularly you would come across a DD soon.  Even though it does have slow days from time to time, it is a super place to fish.

[hawgenvy]

On 4/27/2016 at 9:56 PM, South FLA said:

Chances of catching a 10lber is most dependent on the body of water you are fishing.  So in theory, I would assume for your best chance you would want to be in California, Florida, Southern Georgia, and Texas .  If you expand it to the entire World, you up your chances, by visiting Mexico, Cuba, S. Africa, and Japan. 

 

 

I definitely want to bass fish in Cuba. Didn't know about it, just looked it up, sounds awesome. Thanks for mentioning that. You been there?

[Catt]

10 hours ago, WRB said:

When you know a big bass is in or around cover remember they will run against the pressure of your rod, it's up to you to plan in advance where the bass will go and position yourself so they run out instead of into cover....if possible...or you will loose the battle.

Tom

Sometimes ya just gotta stick em first & then try to figure out how to land em!

[scaleface]

16 hours ago, Mosster47 said:

As far as I know there have been seven double digit bass caught in Oregon and a couple of those were the same fish in the guy's private pond. 

I had one on my finder in 35ft of water last weekend that I know was pushing 10lbs. 

I'll do it here, I'm not sure when, but I will do it. I've caught well over 25 fish that would be 70% or more of the state record fish's weight (non-private pond record) and I'm in my early 30's. 

Wait . you can guess the weight of the fish  shown on a fishfinder ? I cant even tell what kind of fish they are .

["hamma"]

One thing no one has touched upon yet is the fact that double digit bass usually dont follow the "rules" of bass fishing, It appears to me that they dont hold true to the antics of say a bass's reaction to the weather conditions,  seasonal patterns (other than spawn), and general active fishing days. They seem to write their own rules in this aspect, at least most of mine were caught on "tough" days, when other bass were lockjawed and I was seeking a pattern on tourney prefish outings, Is this just a northeast thing? I dont think so, these are different beasts than their younger siblings. They even morph into something that looks different, Their backs hump up, their faces get uglier, and some seem stunted for such a heavy fish. 

As for chances to catch one? does it vary state to state? of course. As stated before in this thread. If they arent there, you're chances are nil. I think that comes down to forage base, opportunity to grow,  and genes..  Up here its the lakes that have a andromoneous  (sp?) forage base in the right ponds and lakes that produce huge bass.  And I thank god daily that i live where i do. I may dislike the states politics,....BUT,...I know ponds that are just over 100 acres that hold huge bass and giant bodies of water that your lucky if you catch a 7 lber in. To catch such a big fish  you not only have to fish lakes that hold them,... but you need everything to go just right.  And thats the hook, everything to go "just  right".

 like Catt wrote; first you got to stick em, then figure how to fight them,...  A truer statement i know not.,... Ive caught some dd's that  i got lucky with because they headed for the safety of deeper waters.,, and others i had a normandy type battle because they headed deeper into cover. Some of those battles i won, others i failed, with the latter happening more then not.

 I can see how some states are going to be less advantageous to the plight of anglers catching dd's. Not all states offer the protein rich multiple forage bases required with the gene line, and opportunity to offer huge fish.  i think whats so key is more the forage base than anything else,..it kinda forces the opportunity thing, and offers the gene line to continue as well.. With out it all fails.,..or at least makes it harder for the chance to be there to begin with.

 interesting subject

[WRB]

It goes without saying you got to stick em before you can catch em. If you are fishing a jungle of heavy cover you got use tackle that you a chance getting the bass  in the boat. Planning your cast instead blindly casting put the odds in your, sometimes that isn't possible most of the time it is and very few anglers give any thought.

You gotta get bit before you can stick the bass and where I fish that means using light line during bright sunny days in clear water. Most bass are not necessarily line shy but these big bass are wary and spook easily,sometime it takes 10 lb line to get bit.

There isn't a lot of difference detween a 5 lb and 10 lb bass, both are adult females and top predators where they live. The big difference is population density with  lots of 5's and very few 10's. The 10 lber isn't smarter, has lived longer and becomes a wary fish that has learned to stay out of harms way and a selective feeder. Predator prey relationship is a critical factor when trying to catch these big rare bass and this is the area anglers need to study where they fish. Big bass are always near the prey they prefer to eat, they don't travel long distance to eat.

Tom

[Raul]

4 hours ago, Keith "Hamma" Hatch said:

Not all states offer the protein rich multiple forage bases required with the gene line, and opportunity to offer huge fish

You forgot to mention that not all states or place provide the right conditions along with the right forage base and the genes, you simply can not underestimate the environmental conditions, all three work in unison to produce larger fish.

Let me give an example there are this two lakes separated only by a couple of miles, both have the same forage base ( common carp and tilapia ), fish in both lakes have the same gene pool, but one produces 10+ lbers and the other one doesn´t, both share pretty much the same type of water, same soil ( bottom composition ) so what differentiates them ? the one that doesn´t produce big mommas has water hyacinth, the other one doesn´t, the one that produces big mommas is surrounded by chicken farms, the other one is not. Those two environmental differences are the key.

["hamma"]

 Raul, no disrespect to you but, I consider environmental conditions part of the "opportunity" 

[Raul]

3 minutes ago, Keith "Hamma" Hatch said:

 Raul, no disrespect to you but, I consider environmental conditions part of the "opportunity" 

No disrespect to you but as a Veterinarian I´m very well aware that if you just can´t remove environmental conditions from the equation, the right food and the right genes aren´t enough. I can provide with many examples of it.

[Catt]

2 hours ago, WRB said:

It goes without saying you got to stick em before you can catch em. If you are fishing a jungle of heavy cover you got use tackle that gives you a chance getting the bass  in the boat. Planning your cast instead blindly casting put the odds in your favor, sometimes that isn't possible most of the time it is and very few anglers give any thought.

Tom

I completely understand what you're saying Tom.

But one reason I catch bigger (not necessarily DDs) bass than my friends is because I aint afraid to put my lure where the bass are.

Yea they'll flip, pitch, or punch in the thick stuff but only those areas that offer a high percentage of landing the fish.

This Coonass will make that flip, pitch, punch, or cast others pass on! 

They'll ask want do I think my odds are of catching that bass & I answer I know what my odds are if I don't cast!

In the marsh I've been known to exit the boat!!!

[SHIMANOFAN]

19 hours ago, BassObsessed said:

Which lake were you referring to?

 

West Lake Toho in Kissimmee. Not sure it's the best but that's how they advertise and I do well on it usually. ?

["hamma"]

I agree, I'm not disagreeing with you by any means,... maybe i should have been clearer on opportunity to begin with,....

 The bass's opportunities, (ie) lakes cycle, ph, aquatic biodiversity, and general layout, how its situated, how it meets the sunlight, is it a rocky lake,...muddy,.. weed infested? i forget the scientific terms, is it fed by a river? spring? just runoff? is it a natural lake, or manmade, and if so what was the land before they flooded it? Have the lakefront owners fertilized their fresh green lawns producing toxic runoff? was the lake stocked, and if so was it done correctly? what are the other predatory species present? Does the state stock it now? and if so with what.? Was there a good breeding season for wading birds? is there snapping turtles present? did the winter produce a fish kill last year? the year before? or ever? are there perch present? and thats a biggie! believe it or not. Is it freely connected to salt water, or fish ladder?

 these and any other surrounding aspect of the lakes makeup, or environmental impact, I consider ,..opportunity.

The chance that one of the fry I saw two decades ago has to become huge. depends on many actual factors, to list them all would be pointless when one word sums it up so well.

[Paul Roberts]

On 4/27/2016 at 9:33 AM, Turtle135 said:

If your state record largemouth bass is less than 12 pounds your odds are a lot worse. Most bodies of water in your state will not contain a single DD bass for you to catch. 

Bingo! This provides a useful statistic, and a big essentially zero percent chance of a DD for over half the country. You can start running your fancy stats from there (essentially South). Still not sure why BASS "Lunker Club" starts at DD. No one seems to notice??