Chances of catching a 10 pounder

[clh121787]

I read an article that a statistician put together. Took into account averge trips of an avid angler, area, many more variables and figured the avid fisherman in the states has a 3 percent chance in his or her life. I believe he figured 52 trips a year 8 hours a trip. A figured for the whole united states. If you live in Texas your chances greatly increase to 19 percent. I believe he wrote Indiana the avid angler has a .3 percent chance at a d.d. it was very interesting. It got picked apart on the forum but it was cool to read. I wish I could find it to repost.

[Senko lover]

Get out there and live out your dreams! One day it'll happen for me. I've been extremely blessed to catch one almost 8 and multiple 5+s in the second year that I've been fishing. One day that big momma is going to bite. That's what I fish for.

[Catt]

As per Toledo Bend Lunker Program

Since 1/2/16 through 4/8/16 or 99 days there have been 89 double digit bass caught!

That number does not include those not entered into the program

Just saying

[NorcalBassin]

Wow, sounds like I need to make a road trip!

[BassObsessed]

True. Texas and Florida the percentage goes up alot. Not so much for my home state.

[IndianaFinesse]

2 minutes ago, BassObsessed said:

True. Texas and Florida the percentage goes up alot. Not so much for my home state.

Better than in indiana with my whopping 0.3 percent chance of catching a ten pound bass here. 

[South FLA]

Chances of catching a 10lber is most dependent on the body of water you are fishing.  So in theory, I would assume for your best chance you would want to be in California, Florida, Southern Georgia, and Texas .  If you expand it to the entire World, you up your chances, by visiting Mexico, Cuba, S. Africa, and Japan. 

 

 

[Raul]

I dunno nuthin' 'bout ketchin them beeg 10+ lbers down here in Mehheecuh. 

[Eric Montes Polk FL]

That statistic has to be flawed. I've gotten over 30 bass 10 plus lbs. It really depends on tour knowledge of the fish. I can nearly look at a lake and pin point the heavy hold areas. Study the area and natural bait then adjust your tackle to suit. Mearly throwing a lure and hoping for big gurls to hit wont do it. If you dont start to catalog events and bites along with water conditions and weather you will never obtain the knowledge necessary to properly pick the bodies of water apart. Using basic bass behavior knowledge then forming your own style is key. I wish you all the best of luck in your chase for a trophy. TIGHT LINES 

[Nitrofreak]

10 minutes ago, Raul said:

I dunno nuthin' 'bout ketchin them beeg 10+ lbers down here in Mehheecuh. 

Ima throw a whole dang box of BS flags at you LOL !!

[A-Jay]

Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

I will admit to having Zero belief that this or any Statistician could ever come close to quantifying such a thing without making numerous assumptions.  Can't be done with any accuracy.

The number one way to improve one's chance to catch trophy fish, is to fish where they live.

Clearly not a guarantee, but if they're not there you have no chance.

Put a dedicated & determined "Average" angler on a body of water with above average bass - you'd be surprised what can happen.

A-Jay

 

 

[Nitrofreak]

2 minutes ago, A-Jay said:

Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.

I will admit to having Zero belief that this or any Statistician could ever come close to quantifying such a thing without making numerous assumptions.  Can't be done with any accuracy.

The number on way to improve one's chance to catch trophy fish, is to fish where they live.

Clearly not a guarantee, but if they're not there you have no chance.

Put a dedicated & determined "Average" angler on a body of water with above average bass - you'd be surprised what can happen.

A-Jay

 

 

We are not on that DD list here in Va. but, we do have them and I know they swim around in my home lake, I am like you said determined to specifically target every aspect of what it's going to take to bring one of those to the boat for a photo opportunity with me and I am determined to make it happen this year !!! 

[A-Jay]

1 minute ago, Nitrofreak said:

We are not on that DD list here in Va. but, we do have them and I know they swim around in my home lake, I am like you said determined to specifically target every aspect of what it's going to take to bring one of those to the boat for a photo opportunity with me and I am determined to make it happen this year !!! 

There ya go

Good Luck

A-Jay

[WRB]

The states that don't have Florida strain LMB the odds are very low as very few validated  DD bass are caught.  Your odds go up with Florida strain LMB. Smallmouth and Spotted bass in the DD category are extremely rare fish.

DD bass in California aren't as common as they were a decade ago but still don't raise any eyebrows here, FLMB over 18 lbs gets everyone's attention.

Tom

[everythingthatswims]

11 hours ago, Nitrofreak said:

We are not on that DD list here in Va. but, we do have them and I know they swim around in my home lake, I am like you said determined to specifically target every aspect of what it's going to take to bring one of those to the boat for a photo opportunity with me and I am determined to make it happen this year !!! 

Yeah, they do 

[scaleface]

I dont even fantasize about a double digit bass around here . I have never seen one , nor a picture of one . I hear stories but they are just stories . Now Bluebasser said he saw one in a lake not to far from here , so its possible .

[Bluebasser86]

9 minutes ago, scaleface said:

I dont even fantasize about a double digit bass around here . I have never seen one , nor a picture of one . I hear stories but they are just stories . Now Bluebasser said he saw one in a lake not to far from here , so its possible .

She was bigger than my PB no doubt, maybe even pushing state record size. I've seen one nearly PB from Mozingo as well. 

There's 2 lakes in Kansas I know of that have DD fish, but the chances of catching them are remote at best. 

[Turtle135]

If your state record largemouth bass is less than 12 pounds your odds are a lot worse. Most bodies of water in your state will not contain a single DD bass for you to catch. 

[blckshirt98]

The study probably omits targeted fish by the angler.  There's a few people that routinely catch DD bass, and it's not by luck or by accident.  They specifically target those big fish, usually fishing big baits and fishing for 8+ hours hoping for just one or two bites.  The majority of bass fisherman are out there to catch bass of any (legal) size, and if a DD latches on to your offering, boom you win the lottery.  But if you have a body of water nearby that has known DD bass, and you fish a big swimbait correctly every weekend for 8 hours over the course of a year, your chances go way way up.

[WRB]

Bob Lusk who manages private lakes to good bass populations will tell you that 10 lb bass are very rare fish and he knows!

Hoping to catch big bass is like a blind squirrel looking for acorns, it's not going find any until it looks under the oak tree.

I was turned onto big bass fishing as a teenager by catching a few DD bass at a young age, before FLMB were introduced to my local lakes. Read everything you can regarding bass behavior and spend lots of time studying the prey source big bass eat in the lakes you fish.

Location is extremely important, like the squirrel find the oak tree.

Tom

PS, In Pursuit of Gaint Bass by Bill Murphy is an excellent book on this topic.

 

[Catt]

It takes a rare breed of fisherman using simple techniques to perfection to consistently catch double digit bass.

[Raul]

My dear friend and fishing partner for decades Pedro has never caught a 10 lber, and we are talking about a person with tons of experience that has been next to me in many occasions when I have caught a big momma, right there elbow to elbow and even fishing with the same bait. 

[geo g]

I believe those odds are right on, unless you are fishing those unique waters that hold an unusual amount of big bass.  Places like the Stick Marsh in Florida where double digits are caught almost everyday by someone.  Your odds can go way up if you fish those waters.

[Senko lover]

18 hours ago, Catt said:

As per Toledo Bend Lunker Program

Since 1/2/16 through 4/8/16 or 99 days there have been 89 double digit bass caught!

That number does not include those not entered into the program

Just saying

And I'll bet a good quarter of them were caught by you 

[Catt]

37 minutes ago, Raul said:

My dear friend and fishing partner for decades Pedro has never caught a 10 lber, and we are talking about a person with tons of experience that has been next to me in many occasions when I have caught a big momma, right there elbow to elbow and even fishing with the same bait. 

Know what ya saying!

My partner Pat has fished side by side with me for 35 yrs & has caught 100s of 9s but has broken 10 only once.