Here We Go Again, Accordig to WXRisk...

[Sam]

FIRST CALL MAP IS HERE CHANGES & DISCUSSION FROM DAVE AT WXRISK.COM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON

As I stated early this Sunday morning ...all the short range models continue to bring the snow in faster and by that we mean the START TIME earlier on Monday morning. So if you are watching any TV forecasts or reading a forecast which has the precipitation beginning of snow in the Richmond metro area by 7:00 AM then you are looking at a bad forecast based upon all the current data. In fact it looks like the snow will probably begin over far Southwest VA BY 11PM and Roanoke/Lexington sometime after 1 or 2 AM on Monday morning.

I may be a little too high with the snow amounts in eastern or southeastern Ohio that maybe just in the last call map. I have increased the snow amounts in area C especially over the northern portion of that zone because it looks like the precipitation there is going to break out pretty quick and the cold there IS going to hold for a while. And also I have adjusted some to start times in many of the zones as well. The "definite" looks like the atmosphere will be cold enough for snow for at least a few hours across Southeast Virginia and Hampton Roads.

The EARLIER SNOW START times is key -- as we stated several times over the past 5 days ... the earlier the snow begins on Monday then the more likely you are to see significant snow and more ice build because it keeps the cold air trapped in place longer. Indeed the latest 4KM NAM and 4KM REGM (that is the high resolution short range Canadian model for those of you who do not know what the RGEM is) keeps the 32° line very close to the RIC metro area until almost 7:00 in the evening on Monday.
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Even at 1:00 AM on Monday morning locations such Greensboro, Hickory & the far NW corner of NC is still at or below 32° as is Lynchburg, Roanoke and the entire Virginia Piedmont up into Washington, DC and Baltimore and the eastern panhandle WVA . The upper levels of the atmosphere are way too warm to support snow by this time but the low level temperatures with the "cold air wedge" is trapped and this ensures that any precipitation coming in Monday evening over the entire Shenandoah Valley, all of the VA Piedmont and into Central MD & far northwest NC should be all ice !!!!
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That being said again, it needs to be noted that the weather models continue to take the main LOW up the coast BUT on a track that is well inland. If you are reading or watching some sort of weather information either on TV, on a web site or social media that tells you that the LOW track has shifted to the east then you are watching somebody who is either lying or as an idiot.
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Once the main LOW begins to develop the south winds will blast apart the cold air wedge by 4:00 AM on Tuesday morning and all the precipitation will go over to all rain across the icy areas of western VA and central western MD by 4 to 7am Tuesday morning
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By Tuesday afternoon the Main LOW will be located over Harrisburg or between Harrisburg/ Philadelphia. The cold air will come pouring in behind LOW and it is possible that the northern end of the Shenandoah Valley as well as southwestern PA, western MD and the eastern portions of WVA will go back over to snow for a least a few hours. There may be additional small accumulations on the backlash snow but I will deal with that in more detail in the last and final forecast, "THE LAST CALL."

 

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[CJ]

Yeah I forgot to send Mother Nature roses for V Day, well I didn't even send a card, so she let me have it again. I got around 3-4 in. snow and now mixed with freezing rain. I'm really sick of this. They're forecasting better weather ahead though. I'm so ready to go fishing.........

[Sam]

I have no idea where Horton is but I know I don't want to be there at this time, 5:53 PM, Sunday, February 14, 2016:

 

 

Timmy Horton

2 hrs ·

Uggghhh!!!

 

[Darren.]

A balmy 23º down here in Hampton Roads.

Mix of snow/rain forecast for tomorrow.

[Sam]

1:00 AM, Monday, February 15th. Happy President's Day!

BRIEF UPATE ON THIS EVENT -- yes the snow has come in EARLIER and much earlier than what it looked like only 36 hrs ago. This event has 2 PARTS

PART 1 -- The OVER RUNNING SNOWS -in the weather business the term "overrunning snow" refers to a type of snow event which does not involve a organized area of Low pressure. Instead what happens is that the warm air aloft overruns the colder dense air ...at the surface and this process produces overcast skies and snowfall. As a general rule short range weather models are often a little slow with the overrunning precipitation and this appears to be the case with this system.
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IMAGE #1 Given the current radar trends it's pretty clear that by 7:00 AM on Monday there will be a band of snow oriented in a west to east direction covering most of southwestern south central and interior portions of Southeast Virginia. The northern edge of the moderate snow will be reach up to Fredericksburg Charlottesville and close to Washington, DC. The purple line = the snow line the RED line = Ice line. As you can see the purple line or the snow line is still down close to Elizabeth City and Raleigh at 7am.

BY 1PM IMAGE 2 the rain snow line is close to Richmond Virginia Lynchburg and Roanoke. Everything N of the purple line is still snow so Charlottesville Fredericksburg most of the northern portions of the Shenandoah Valley northeast of VA lower southern MD DCA BAL are still in all snow. Richmond is changing over by 1:00 PM to sleet as is Lynchburg and Roanoke. However look A at he RED line which represents sleet - e which extends still southward down to Emporia Raleigh Greensboro and Charlotte NC. However far southwestern Virginia has gone over a plane rain as has southeastern Kentucky and the far southwest 25% of West Virginia.

7PM MON -IMAGE #3 - we can see the developing area of low pressure now approaching Chattanooga TN. The purple line which again is the SNOW SLEET line is north of the PaA MD border and has pushed north of Philly but not to the north of Pittsburgh. Central portions of WVA have gone over to all rain and the Rain area now covers all of eastern NC southeast VA all of the Delmarva NJ and close to New York City

 

 

[CJ]

This is a sight I'm sick of seeing:

[BrianinMD]

So far have about 3 inches, waiting for the change over to ice. That is when things get interesting.

Spending time stuck inside today to get ready to hit a heated water lake next weekend when its calling for mid 50 degree temps. 10 guys from my bass club rented a house so we can fish for 3 days.

[Darren.]

We got a solid 2", 3" in some spots today, but it is now
melting with the rain/freezing rain.