Super User Sam Posted January 15, 2016 Super User Posted January 15, 2016 We will get a little snow on the East Coast this Sunday so if you plan to go fishing pleae double check the weather. Dave at Wxrisk.com reported the hurricane two days ago but it looks like it will not hit the US. But stay tuned. Here is Dave's weather forecast for this Sunday: Wxrisk.com 9 hrs · BE ADVISED -- EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW / SNOW SHOWERS JAN 17 off and on all day over Western/ central NC ... Much of VA intro Lower MD eastern shore Quote
Super User deaknh03 Posted January 15, 2016 Super User Posted January 15, 2016 So sam, seeing as tho you are in Louisiana, and its quite temperate year round...I can only assume you delight in other peoples misery by posting about storms they will get. Quote
Super User Bankbeater Posted January 15, 2016 Super User Posted January 15, 2016 We are suppose to get some light snow tonight or early tomorrow. Probably the same front that is going to hit you on Sunday. Quote
Super User Jigfishn10 Posted January 15, 2016 Super User Posted January 15, 2016 All rain...Snow north of us Quote
Super User A-Jay Posted January 16, 2016 Super User Posted January 16, 2016 Did some mention snow ? A-Jay http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=USMI0323 Quote
Super User Jigfishn10 Posted January 16, 2016 Super User Posted January 16, 2016 11 minutes ago, A-Jay said: Did some mention snow ? A-Jay http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=USMI0323 Geez...33* for you today, it's Indian summer for crying out loud! 1 Quote
Super User A-Jay Posted January 16, 2016 Super User Posted January 16, 2016 21 minutes ago, Jigfishn10 said: Geez...33* for you today, it's Indian summer for crying out loud! I know - I was out today in just a jock strap & a sailor's cap ! But as fun as that was, it's not really desirable at this point. Hoses up the dog sled trails . . . A-Jay Quote
Super User Sam Posted January 16, 2016 Author Super User Posted January 16, 2016 UPDATE ON JAN 22-23 THREAT... PLEASE SCROLL DOWN TO SEE PREVIOUS POST ( LETS MONGER ) not much to change - The "regular " euro model holds OR keeps the southern Low back over TX for an Extra 1-2 days so it arrives on JAN 24 and all the cold air is gone from the east coast and even new England !.... But the Euro Ensemble does NOT do this... It has the southern Low arriving much faster with the cold air still in place over the eastern third of the US which results in significant snow ice for VA MD WVA TN DEL and western NC ... in addition this colder wintry solution is supported by the GFS ensemble as well Quote
Super User Sam Posted January 16, 2016 Author Super User Posted January 16, 2016 Wxrisk.com 2 hrs · *** ALERT ** 12z GFS ENSEMBLE just went " woof " for ACCUMULATING SNOW for much of VA MD PA eastern WVA on JAN22 ... this matches the EURO ensembles over the past few runs and now that this event is 6 days away the models are really beginning to "see it".... This may be the only chance for the Middle Atlantic region this winter. I do not think that is going to be the case but it is possible. In the super strong El Nino events in the winter of 1982 - 83 and in ...the winter of 1997- 98 there was one and only one significant East Coast winter storm in each of those winters. Outside of those brief windows of winter, those winters on the East Coast were pretty mild and snowless. I still believe that there will be another buildup of the pattern which will bring back another 3 or 4 window of winter opportunities covering much of February and or March. But given the amount of cold air coming into the middle Atlantic JAN 17-20 this JAN22 threat seems to be increasing. See More 2 Quote
Super User Sam Posted January 17, 2016 Author Super User Posted January 17, 2016 Weekend of January 22nd not looking too good. We have snow in Richmond, just as Dave at Wxrisk.com predicted. I hate snow. Wxrisk.com added 2 new photos. 9 hrs · *** ALERT!** MAJOR SNOWSTORM THREAT INCREASING FROM WESTERN NC into most of VA into MD DEL PHL eastern PA NJ NYC and ALL of southern NEW ENGLAND JAN 22-23 ( dont NOT get this confused with Sunday JAN 17) THE BIG DOG IS LOOSE The event begins the coming up from the Gulf of Mexico late Thursday night into Friday morning spreading northeast from Tennessee and North Carolina into Southeast Kentucky West Virginia and all of Virginia. Fro...m there heavy snow will spread steadily north eastward reaching DCA by Friday evening and reaching Philly & NYC by early Saturday morning January 23. This is a major event as the European model with its amazing consistency shows large snowfall amounts of 10-20 20 inches covering large portions of Virginia up into the big cities of the northeast and Southern New England. SEE IMAGE #1 As I stated in the video on Saturday evening there is a strong analog to this type of weather system that brings a major snowstorm to the Middle Atlantic region in a strong El Nino year. The system I am referring to is the major middle Atlantic snowstorm from FEB 11-12 1983. SEE IMAGE #2 shows position of the surface LOW as it intensifies along the North Carolina Coast and then turns out to sea east of the lower Maryland eastern shore. Based upon the current data it seems that this strong LOW will NOT head up towards Cape cod and as a result the heaviest snows will only reach into Southern New England. The two other primary medium range weather models - the Canadian and the GFS - continue to handle the system quite poorly and because of their inconsistencies WXRISK is rejecting the Canadian and GFS model solutions. One of the signs that forecasters use to figure out whether not a model makes sense or is consistent is two maps into regular or operational solution against its own ENSEMBLE mean. Once more the GFS model latest run has a solution which is vastly different from what the GFS ensemble is depicting and this is also the case with the Canadian model. See More Quote
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