Super User Sam Posted October 16, 2015 Super User Posted October 16, 2015 Last year the weather forecasted told us that when the snow hits Siberia hard the USA will have a cold winter. Well guys and gals, here is the early Siberian snow forecast, with the understanding that it will be updated in November. The acorns are already falling in Richmond, Virginia and we are still in October. So get out your ice hockey gear and snow skis and get ready for a strong winter. Here is the article. Like it or not, here it is. Enjoy! Expert: Ramp-up in Siberian snow cover hints at cold winter for eastern U.S. By Jason Samenow October 14 The first snowfall of the season hit Moscow in early October. (Irina Samokhvalova/AP) Every October, seasonal forecasters pay close attention to the trends in snow cover in Siberia, as they have shown to have some relationship with winter weather conditions in the eastern United States. When Siberian autumn snow is expansive and increases quickly, it tends to favor a cold winter in the East; whereas, when it’s scarce, a mild winter is more likely. The meteorologist who discovered this relationship, Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, says this October’s Siberian snow cover is off to a fast start, which may portend another cold winter for the East. “I think that [the Siberian snow cover] will be above normal,” Cohen said in an e-mail. “[but] it is lagging the two blockbuster Octobers of the past two years.” [AccuWeather winter forecast: Not as ‘brutal’ as last year in Mid-Atlantic and Northeast] In technical terms, above normal Siberian snow cover in the fall is strongly linked to the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) during winter. A negative AO is associated with a weaker polar jet stream that tends to stray more into the mid-latitudes, unleashing blasts of Arctic air. “The predictors that I look at all seem to be indicating to me a negative bias for the upcoming winter AO,” Cohen said. “Of course, a negative AO increases the chance of a cold winter in the eastern U.S.” [Local persimmons, acorns and hickory nuts are forecasting a harsh winter in D.C.] Last October, snow cover over Siberia increased at a furious clip and spanned the second greatest area since records began in 1972. “The signal from the snow cover was both strong and consistent,” Cohen said heading into last winter. Based on the snow cover behavior, Cohen forecast a colder than normal winter for the eastern U.S. He was not only right that the winter would be a cold one, but also accurately forecast that the second half of winter would be significantly colder than the first half. Cohen also correctly predicted above-normal snow for the large northeastern cities, including Washington. He called for 24 inches in the District, whereas Reagan National received 18.3 inches and Washington Dulles 36.9 inches. Notably, he said the heaviest snow would fall between New York City and Boston. “That turned out to be truly prescient and will likely be a career forecast,” Cohen said. While Cohen’s forecast was close to spot-on and Siberia’s fall snow boom preceded a brutal winter in the eastern United States, some critics wonder whether he got the right forecast for the wrong reason. The AO, which Cohen forecast to be strongly negative last winter, was actually positive. Cohen counters the AO is just a statistic and that his model based on Siberian snow cover correctly pegged the evolution of atmospheric features that led to the harsh winter in the East. “I feel confident in saying that the atmospheric physics or dynamics unfolded this winter consistent with the dynamics we have argued for how extensive snow cover influences the atmospheric circulation in late winter. It just didn’t project on to the negative phase of the AO,” he said. Cohen has making winter predictions for 15 years. “In the scientific literature our model remains the most accurate to date,” he told the Boston Globe last spring. The Globe said his winter outlooks have a 75 percent accuracy rate, better than the National Weather Service. While Cohen’s early comments about the 2015-2016 winter suggest he’s leaning cold in the East, he cautioned: “It is very early and I have not issued an updated winter forecast.” He stressed he’s not only considering Siberian snow cover for his outlook. “I am also watching El Niño like everyone else,” he said. “I usually don’t give much weight to El Niño in making a temperature forecast but this is a big one.” [History shows a strong El Niño may mean huge snow for D.C. this winter or almost none] Cohen will produce his detailed winter outlook in November and we will share it here at the Capital Weather Gang. Quote
tipptruck1 Posted October 16, 2015 Posted October 16, 2015 It was snowing up here this morning. Quote
Super User deaknh03 Posted October 16, 2015 Super User Posted October 16, 2015 Dear Sam, I hate you. Sincerely, The Northeast 2 Quote
Leonidas Posted October 17, 2015 Posted October 17, 2015 I'm in the commercial hvac trade. The last two winters were brutal. Not sure this short, fat hillbilly can take another winter of working on roofs at -10F. Hope he's wrong. Quote
Super User Gone_Phishin Posted October 17, 2015 Super User Posted October 17, 2015 The El Niño models are showing less snow and perhaps an overall milder Winter for this part of Wisconsin....and I'm OK with that. Quote
Super User Senko lover Posted October 17, 2015 Super User Posted October 17, 2015 Sheesh. Woke up to go fishing this morning and had to put on extra layers. Gonna be a cold one for sure. Quote
68camaro Posted October 17, 2015 Posted October 17, 2015 I rather enjoy colder temps and snow, hope its true in Central VA. Now my wife on the other hand, who hates any temps below 75*, will be miserable if forecast is true. Quote
Super User Fishing Rhino Posted October 17, 2015 Super User Posted October 17, 2015 It ain't true. Ditto. Correct or not, hope it makes for a better day. Quote
Super User slonezp Posted October 17, 2015 Super User Posted October 17, 2015 frost on the truck this morning = crappie fishing tomorrow Quote
Super User A-Jay Posted October 17, 2015 Super User Posted October 17, 2015 This morning ~ You'll get no arugent from me. 30 degrees but there's no wind ~ I'm heading out to the lake right now A-Jay Quote
OntarioFishingGuy Posted October 17, 2015 Posted October 17, 2015 It snowed a bit west of here yesterday. Bring on the cold temps, less people fishing = more fish for me! Quote
Big C Posted October 18, 2015 Posted October 18, 2015 Winter sucks! And it's coming fast, and gonna leave slow. Quote
Super User Sam Posted October 18, 2015 Author Super User Posted October 18, 2015 It snowed a bit west of here yesterday. Bring on the cold temps, less people fishing = more fish for me! Shouldn't you be watching ice hockey this time of year and into the winter???? Quote
Super User Fishing Rhino Posted October 18, 2015 Super User Posted October 18, 2015 This morning ~ We Missed Fall .jpg You'll get no arugent from me. 30 degrees but there's no wind ~ I'm heading out to the lake right now A-Jay What's an arugent? Quote
Super User Oregon Native Posted October 18, 2015 Super User Posted October 18, 2015 Maybe the NE could share some with the West!? Quote
Super User A-Jay Posted October 18, 2015 Super User Posted October 18, 2015 What's an arugent? ~ Meaning I would certainly be in favor of the somewhat milder winter forecast prediction. Especially after the last 2 years. I would expect residents of New England could relate. Sorry I wasn't more succinct. A-Jay Quote
Last_Cast Posted October 18, 2015 Posted October 18, 2015 Fishing and hockey season. I dont mind Quote
OntarioFishingGuy Posted October 18, 2015 Posted October 18, 2015 Shouldn't you be watching ice hockey this time of year and into the winter???? Ice hockey is my least favorite thing to watch on TV. Go Blue Jays! 1 Quote
Super User Raul Posted October 19, 2015 Super User Posted October 19, 2015 Son of a gun, weather has been absolutely brutal, with these sunny 85 deg temps I don't know what to do ......... Unfortunately I had to work during the weekend. 1 Quote
Derekbass02 Posted October 25, 2015 Posted October 25, 2015 Son of a gun, weather has been absolutely brutal, with these sunny 85 deg temps I don't know what to do ......... Unfortunately I had to work during the weekend. Quote
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