Local Weather

[mrmacwvu1]

Why is it that in this day and age can't local weathermen simply get online and look at European weather model map. It is so much more accurate then what we currently use in the US. Yesterday I was telling people to get their stuff done because we were going to get a major storm. Most of them continually said but the news is only calling for two to four inches. I told them that it would most likely be between 8 and 12. They all looked at me like I was nuts. The European model said the rain would switch to sleet from rain at 4 and to snow by 6. So I decided to get all of my supplies for the next week that I needed. Not that I would not be able to get out in the next day or so but I am taking care of my mom who is going through chemo. I always like to be prepared. But back to the point, you could have set your watch to the models forcast. When I woke up at 4 this morning we already had 8 inches on the ground and it is not supposed to stop until 1 this afternoon.

What kills me is that I will watch the news here in about an hour and the local weather guy will act shocked and say the storm dumped unexpected amounts of snow. However the storm did exactly what it always was going to do. My question is why do we in the United states continue to use inferior data? Are they mandated to use their current models. I started using the European weather model years ago.

PS. I just wanted to give a shout to the poster that forecasted this winter months ago based on the snow amounts in Siberia. He caught some flack for it but has been mostly correct.

Global warming my butt

[Scott F]

Our local forecasters compare several different computer models including the European ones when reporting the weather. Too bad yours don't.

[Catch and Grease]

I think the local forecasters here do just fine and are usually pretty close to right on the money...

[A-Jay]

First off, I hope your Mom is OK.

 

After years on both salt & sweet water, I have come to believe that one needs to be able to "Interpret" a weather forecast to actually benefit from it. It's a very tricky proposition but it can be done.

 

I use the following guides lines to assist me in this most challenging venture.

 

Whenever the forecast includes some wind, whatever the numeric value predicted - one simply ADDS 25 to 50% to it. Often times simply multiply this figure by 2 comes close to reality.

 

Whenever the forecast includes rain & wind, expect it to start several hours earlier than predicted, be much heavier than forecasted (and will most likely include Lightning)  and last for at least one full day longer than expected. 

 

This Winter has definitely supported my findings that tripling the snow totals forecasted simply MUST be standard procedure.

 

Finally, "Partly Cloudy", "Partly Sunny", "Slightly Overcast", "Scattered Showers", " Mist in the Morning", "Snow Flurries", "Snow Showers", "Some Fog Possible" & all of this type of completely ambiguous prediction, must all be translated into the following: 

 

"I honestly have no clue regarding today's weather.  Your guess is as good as mine, except they paid me."

 

And there you have it -

 

A-Jay

[Sam]

Mr. Mack at WVU...good question about local weather people.

 

Dave Toleris of Wxrisk.com is a professional weatherman who works for industries affected by the weather.

 

Dave has a blog and a great Facebook page where he discusses the weather in detail and the differences between the USA and other models.

 

He is a riot when he goes off on TV weather people.

 

So to answer your query, Dave received a nice note from the NBC12 lead weatherman about how the TV weather people have to present the weather.

 

Seems like the TV guys get into hot water if they over react to a storm and the weather turns out to be pretty good. 

 

So if a weather guy or gal says we will have rain on Saturday and people change their plans and we do not have rain on Saturday it hits the fan with complaints.

 

To avoid these situations the local TV people follow the USA's model so they can blame it on the US Weather Department's computer model.

 

In Richmond, the weather people are now telling us about the European model and what it predicts. This is an offshoot of Dave going bonkers on their past reports.

 

I recall Dave telling everyone that the last hurricane to hit over here was going to go inland by Wilmington, North Carolina.  The TV people had the storm off shore in the Atlantic.  Guess who was only 60-miles off where the eye hit the USA?  Yep, good ole Dave.

 

If you want to learn about the weather; see predictions 10-days out; and have some fun "like" the Wxrisk.com Facebook page and stay tuned for some fun weather stuff.

 

Now go to the library and do some studying.

[Sam]

Mr. Mack, I can't take credit for the Siberian post as it was Dave Toleris who presented it on his Facebook page and I shared it with the Forum.

 

Hope your mom is doing well and you are one great guy to help her in her time of need.

 

Hope she gets well, soon.

 

Sam

[buzzed bait]

it's about tv ratings too.... if they got it right everytime, it would be boring and would not keep you engaged in the broadcast nor give you anything to complain about to co-workers. 

[mrmacwvu1]

Thanks for the thoughts on mom

I guess I was just ranting about our weatherman thinking that it would be smarter to error on the side of caution and tell people to be prepared so they don't get stuck without supplies.

Oh and I have not hit the library at WVU since I graduated 10 years ago

Come to think of it I didn't hit it then.

[SirSnookalot]

The factors that alter the course of a storm can be constantly changing.  I don't mind the hype when a hurricane is headed this way, best be prepared even if nothing happens.

 

Given the choice I'd rather go thru a hurricane than a blizzard, I've done both.  Being without power in the heat of summer in Florida is tough with out a/c, that doesn't compare to sub zero temps with no heat.

[roadwarrior]

Forcasting wind is easy. Just add both components of the range.

For example 15-20 mph means 35mph.

 

 

 

[A-Jay]

Forcasting wind is easy. Just add both components of the range.

For example 15-20 mph means 35mph.

 

 

 

 

That's good ~

 

A-Jay

[Catch 22]

Our local tv weather guy is a real drama queen.2" snow is life threatning,8" snow means were all gonna die==ect ect

His forecasted storms always come in 6 to 8 hrs late.

 

Funny thing is,we live near a main touron attraction==the beaches and summer forecasts NEVER say its going to be bad on the weekends until it actually happens. That's after everyone spends their money to get here.

 

The Windfinder site is reasonably accurate but not perfect.None are

 

C22