Snow For Thanksgiving On East Coast???

[Sam]

From Dave at wxrisk.com on Saturday, November 22nd.

 

Hope he is wrong but as we know Dave is usually 99% correct with his forecasts.

 

**** ALERT **** EAST COAST WINTER STORM THREAT INCREASING FOR WED NIGHT / THURSDAY MORNING***

 

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL PLANS ON THE EAST COAST rain on the coast is likely for eastern NC se VA delmarva NJ - EVEN in NYC& Long island .. hvy snow well inland ... Mix over I-95 / piedmont that ends as snow.

 

This should of been out hours earlier but I was just way too tired to and could NOT keep my eys open for the European. Sure enough of course the ...one night I decide not to when all hell breaks loose.

The European model once again is taken the lead in developing an forecasting a significant East Coast winter storm. This is now the fourth run in a row the model has shown this system -- see image #1 -- while the high resolution 13km GFS ( GFS PARA) has done and no other major flip flop.

 

IMAGE #1 shows the Middle Atlantic region Wednesday and Thursday nights. Now this is a little faster than what the data showed yesterday... So again the issue remains how fast as the cold air coming Wednesday night. For those who love snow it would be really a much better the system to slow down by 12 hours.

 

This will allow more cold air to get into the coastal areas.

 

The image on the left hand side shows Tuesday 7:00 PM... The image on the right hand side Wednesday 7:00 PM. As you can see temperatures are still fairly mild. The map is pretty self explanatory as we can see low pressure area developing off the New Jersey Coast by Wednesday night. Notice how much colder everything has become of Wednesday night as the coastal Low sucks in the colder air and pulls it to the coast.

 

This next image -- #2-- shows the potential for how much snow could fall assuming the European models correct. I have as large map so you can see it more clearly. The yellow line is the 6 inch line.... and the black line is the 12 inch line.

 

As you can see the northwest third of Virginia as well as the western half of Maryland could see up to 6 inches of snow according to this map. In Eastern Pennsylvania the Lehigh valley and Poconos could see 8 to 10 inches... And the Catskills into much of western Mass and into interior New England could see a 12"+ of snow.

 

Notice that New York City New Jersey Delaware coastal CT sees very little if any snowfall.

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  BUT this is Just 1 model right ? well NO not really. The European ensemble strongly supports this idea of a East Coast winter storm Wednesday night into Thursday morning. see inage #3 ( what is an ensemble? see below)
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[flyfisher]

Saw the alert earlier too....of course this is the first year in a long time we will be making the trip up to philly to visit my family.  Seems that the earlier we can leave on wednesday the better we will be. 

[Kevin Beachy]

good grief

[Sam]

Fly, David just posted that the European model has not moved an inch and he suggests heading out as early as possible if you are heading to Philly.

 

My son and his family are planning to head to Springfield, PA on the 26th via I-95.

[Darren.]

Light dusting in my area, if correct.

 

But sub 900 millibars, good low pressure 

system. Should blow bait into fishes mouth....

 

Wind from the south. LOL.

[flyfisher]

I take 301 when i go up there now.  It takes a little longer if there is no traffic on 95 (rare to never happens), has less tolls and is a nicer drive.  You get on 95 right in Delaware too so it you miss all the DC/Baltimore traffic. Also easier to stop when you have a 4 year old and 5 month old puppy along for the ride  

[tomustang]

They had to plan this when I was driving down to NC

[Sam]

Tom, it just got worse.

 

Snow now being predicted along the I-95 sector.

 

Check out wxrisk.com on Facebook for details.

[deaknh03]

Tom, it just got worse.

Snow now being predicted along the I-95 sector.

Check out wxrisk.com on Facebook for details.

Your a sadist.

[Fisher-O-men]

No snow predicted here in San Diego, but the water temps are down to 64!  Might have to stop fishing top water! 

[ColdSVT]

I know i want it to shift west some more...i want some snow on the deck for rifle season dec 1st lol

[tomustang]

Bring it storm

[tipptruck1]

I wish you guys lucks. We are getting hit with it right now. Nothing beats 5ins of heavy wet snow.

[Sam]

LAST CALL MAP HERE
lowered AREA A snow from 2-4 inches to 1-2 inches .. SHIFTED AREA C a tad to the nw .. so that CHO is right on the line of 3-6"/ 1-2".... lowered NYC western Long Island coastal CT to 1-3"

 

 

[Darren.]

Rain for me! Stay safe all you I-95 peeps.

[flyfisher]

I just hope traveling tomorrow isn't too bad....i know i will be taking 301 instead of 95 for sure.

[Kevin Beachy]

Even though i am in In., i heard back home, va. they are getting snow! Why did i come  out? lol