Crystal Ball - Predicting Fishing

[Catt]

There have been numerous books, articles, charts, clocks, ect  published on this great mystery of bass fishing. A lot of the authors of these publications go through great lengths explaining how difficult it is to determine these times. It is really quite simple to determine these times for yourself with a little inside information. River & salt water publications go through great lengths explaining how difficult it is to determine tidal movements. The reality is that these best times & tidal movements are related to the moon's phases.

People in animal husbandry, farming, hunting, & fishing have used the moon's phases for centuries. One of the oldest publications is the "Poor Richard's Almanic" by Benjamin Franklin 1759.

The moon's phases are divided into four quarters, two of which are major times & two of which are minor times. The major times are the new & full moons.

The times for the major periods are as follows.

1 1/2 hours prior to the moon reaching its apex

1 1/2 hours prior to the moon reaching its perigee.

The times for the minor periods are as follows.

1 1/2 hours prior to the moon raising of the moon on the horizon.

1 1/2 hours prior to the settings of the moon on the horizon.

We could also add 1 1/2 hours after each of the above which gives us 12 hours out of 24 hours...no exactly nailing it!

[A-Jay]

16 minutes ago, Catt said:

There have been numerous books, articles, charts, clocks, ect  published on this great mystery of bass fishing. A lot of the authors of these publications go through great lengths explaining how difficult it is to determine these times. It is really quite simple to determine these times for yourself with a little inside information. River & salt water publications go through great lengths explaining how difficult it is to determine tidal movements. The reality is that these best times & tidal movements are related to the moon's phases.

People in animal husbandry, farming, hunting, & fishing have used the moon's phases for centuries. One of the oldest publications is the "Poor Richard's Almanic" by Benjamin Franklin 1759.

The moon's phases are divided into four quarters, two of which are major times & two of which are minor times. The major times are the new & full moons.

The times for the major periods are as follows.

1 1/2 hours prior to the moon reaching its apex

1 1/2 hours prior to the moon reaching its perigee.

The times for the minor periods are as follows.

1 1/2 hours prior to the moon raising of the moon on the horizon.

1 1/2 hours prior to the settings of the moon on the horizon.

We could also add 1 1/2 hours after each of the above which gives us 12 hours out of 24 hours...no exactly nailing it!

 ~ X2 . . . .

After spending many years chasing several different species of fish in all kinds of fresh, salt & brackish water environments that include but may not be limited to lakes, reservoirs, rivers, streams, ponds & puddles, inshore, the surf and well offshore, I've come to realize that there really is only one single factor that catching fish successfully in all these situations has in common, including bass fishing . . . . .. . . . .

I have to be there.     So, I just go fishing.

A-Jay

[ClackerBuzz]

stay away from those charts.  horoscopes and astrology have netted me 4 ex-wives

[Paul Roberts]

On 2/13/2016 at 7:46 AM, MFBAB said:

...

You see the words New and Full Moon, and something like 65% of the records are caught within 3 days of each.  You instantly think, "This is simple, 65% of the fish are caught on just those 2 days"...But if you think it through, they said 3 days before and after each, so now we're talking about 3+1+3 (Full), and 3+1+3 (New) = 14 days. ...

They actually also included the day of the quarter moons, adding two days to the tally, which occupies now better than half of the lunar month. Why did they add quarters? Well... there are some moon theorist anglers that like the quarter, and it just so happens a few record catches happened to fall on the quarter day.

Interestingly, and either confoundingly or tellingly, there have been moon theories proposed by a number of well-known/respected anglers that, if taken all into account, essentially cover the entire lunar month.

On 2/13/2016 at 8:54 AM, MFBAB said:

...

Now, another one of these debates, the one about fishing midday goes against that theory (more fishermen) though.  I've seen a good deal of data and also a lot of anecdotal references indicating that a disproportionately high percentage of larger bass are caught in the midday slot.  There is no doubt that fewer fishermen are out at midday, but one good example is the BASS Lunker Club data set with several thousand entries of 10 lb LMB and 6+ Smallies, which indicates that the highest reported time slot for qualifying bass in their records is the 11 am hour!  The most productive Lunker months by far are also the spawning months, Feb-April, which are the ones that I believe are the most tied in with the Full moons influence as well. 

...

My response from a previous thread on the mid-day subject:

There is good info in that video, such as the general idea that large bass are successful predators, and there is research to suggest that aggressive individuals do grow faster and have a better chance at getting big –provided the food is there, and angling pressure and associated mortality is low.

But, do big bass feed more at midday? Are more big bass caught at midday? Are big bass more vulnerable to angling at midday? Are these even the same questions? I’m not sure we can actually get at the first question or third questions by answering the second.

-First, saying anything about “big bass” is a statistical nightmare –most often comprising low number data sets. Second, angling success data offers precious little control, even recognition, of the possible variables involved. Collecting angling data across the continent, (and ignoring season, weather, sky and water conditions, prey type, availability and vulnerability, angling pressure, angler habits, angler effort, etc), is a recipe for chaos.

-Bass vision: There is a fair amount of research that pertains to bass behavior and lighting, and some of it doesn’t really jive with what is stated in the video. The fact that bass have color vision does not mean they cannot hunt in low light or are even less efficient –esp compared to their prey. According to some research I’ve seen bass can see much better than bluegills in low light. Many small prey fish species head for cover or shelter for the night -for good reason. Telemetry studies have shown increased crepuscular and nocturnal activity in bass in many waters. Probably depends a lot on season, prey, angling pressure.

-Prey vulnerability to bass. There is research that has looked at hunting success by LM under different lighting. One in particular found that under brighter lighting bluegills were able to avoid LM and capture rates by the bass fell. During low light bass could approach closer and capture rates increased. I’ve seen this type of thing myself on ponds I fish where I purposely watch bass hunt from high banks. Under brilliant sun, bass make fewer chases and time and again I’ve seen bass enter a cove and see the bluegills stream away and into cover well out ahead of the cruising bass. It’s apparent that they can see the bass from a long ways out.

Now, one could argue that these are not “big” bass. Yet they are the largest and oldest bass in these small ponds. Thus they should also conform to Hannon’s suggestion that these are the “rule followers” –the one’s that have survived. There’s a hole I see in the “rule follower” idea that assumes that there is one set of rules that bass follow, as if every year or every season would be the same. Prey abundance, prey vulnerability, cover density, and other factors can vary greatly year to year. One set of “rules” may not pan out the next season, much less the next year. Becoming “big” is not a formula that is met at all times. And being an “aggressive individual” carries tremendous risks. There is some research in brown trout too -a fish that has the ability to diverge in growth pattern from cohorts due in large part to aggressiveness in feeding- and many of these individuals burn out and die depending on what’s available to support such growth. Growing “big” is, in large part, luck.

-Bass vulnerability to angling: I think it’s safe to say that, at least for northern largemouths, large bass are most vulnerable during the cold water periods. In the north, sun angle can be low enough that the prime periods tend to shift to midday. Dunno how this pans out for floridanus, and I know Hannon has written that he caught most of his big bass in summer. His experience is with Florida strain largemouth. Maybe floridanus is different? Certainly sun angle, and water temps, would be different. Roger?

-Angler effort weighs in heavy. I remember all the excitement around the Texas Sharelunker program catch rate and moon phase comparison. At one point early on, a poorly done statistical investigation suggested that catches of lunker bass clustered around the full and new moons. Well, that ended up being wrong. Catches were pretty much evenly distributed against moon phases. The most solid conclusion that could be drawn turned out to be that the most significant period to catch a Sharelunker qualified bass in Texas was … on a weekend.

How does angler effort vary across the day on each water body? As to time of day, how many anglers get up at 3 or 4am to be on the lake at sunrise? Also, I don’t know about you but it often takes me some time to get my act together, figure out what’s going on for the day, and then to revisit those good locations ferreted out for the day. By then, it’s not 9am anymore. Does time to get to casting change with age? Do older, and presumably more experienced, anglers tend to fish later in the day than many gung-ho younger anglers –if so, maybe it’s more a matter of energetics than it is success rate on “big” bass. I wonder how success rate on big bass would compare between night and day, if corrected for effort?

Do big bass feed more at midday? How would we know?

[MFBAB]

I always Love your perspective Paul!!

Also, on the Full moon deal, as scaleface pointed out, maybe more guys are fishing during those periods...

Also, something that occurred to me that probably accounts for that "marginal" advantage that *Hannon, etal try to play up, is that during the spring there really is a big advantage to the Full Moon (IMO and supportable by some data referenced above), and that is probably enough to skew the numbers slightly higher for the whole year. 

*I went back and re-read Hannon's Moon section in "Big Bass Magic", and he clearly cherry-picked a block of years (8 year period) for his record-catch results, and as I said before, it was all species, not just bass.  It just smacks of marketing to me. 

It's like the X files, I want to believe  

[yugrac]

I have had some of my best days when the "book" says dont even bother going, and been skunked on days that should have been perfect, and thrown every lure, style, and water depth and clarity there was on sometimes more than one lake, with no results.  The thing about weather conditions is the are very localized. I was fishing with my son last spring on a local reservoir, from 6am to 11am, nothing. Loaded up the boat and went to a lake straight south about 15 miles and picked up a couple dozen largemouth using the same lures and methods. The moon phases effecting the tide? Yes, I will buy that BUT, how much tidal effect do you get on a 60 acre lake?  same thing with the baro pressure, I had read a report someone had done on how it effects water pressure and how it had an effect on the pressure in fish swim bladders, however this study was done on a large saltwater fish that had a huge swim bladder, and the biologist who did the report said it would have no or little effect on any freshwater sport fish.  I think local weather conditions have the most effect on the lake your on at the time,as far as what they want. My son and I last spring were on Lake Erie, Presque Isle Bay, and then  on a lake in Waterford Pa. and its creek outlet before we started getting on fish. If we would have stayed in one place maybe by that time of day we would have caught fish there, who knows. As far as the baro and moon charts go, I look at them, but I dont pay any attention to them. I only get to go  20 to 24 times a year due to my work and taking care of my home and cars, ect. so I go when ever I get the chance. As my son always says, you never know if you dont go.

[RCCA]

I've tried to get a pattern on all that stuff for a loooong time. Best way to disprove it all and catch fish at the same time is to go as often as you can. I've been guilty of letting that stuff get in my head and possibly effecting when and how I fish. No more.  This last weekend was opposite of what it was "suppose to be" in every aspect. For me, from now on, it's fish everyday for as long as I can. 

[Fishinthefish]

I honestly only consider wind speed when it affects the waters drastically, sun vs dark is fairly important when it comes to my color choice. Other than that I don't take too much stock in the weather. I've gone out on days after the water has gone up and caught fish in the shallows one after another and times during the same time of year where I couldn't find any fish at all.

[Nitrofreak]

"There is an app for that"...

It makes no difference, if you are not fishing where the fish are, your chances are slim to none.

If you are fishing where the fish are, there is an old adage that may apply to this conversation, "I would much rather throw the wrong bait in the right place than throw the right bait in the wrong place".

[yugrac]

3 hours ago, Nitrofreak said:

"There is an app for that"...

It makes no difference, if you are not fishing where the fish are, your chances are slim to none.

If you are fishing where the fish are, there is an old adage that may apply to this conversation, "I would much rather throw the wrong bait in the right place than throw the right bait in the wrong place".

Well, a few years ago, a Indiana fish biologist who had a website called "Big Indiana Bass" addressed the issue of "no fish here"  He said during electroshock surveys, there was never a shoreline, on any lake they surveyed, that did not have fish come to the top. My daughter and her husband both work for the National Forest service. They work in a national forest in California. Due to the drought conditions the last few years, some river fish on the threatened list had to be relocated due to falling water levels. I asked her about this, and she told me they brought up fish through electroshock on every stretch of river they worked. So just because you dont catch fish there, does not mean they are not there.