Crystal Ball - Predicting Fishing

[Violinguy]

I'm just curious.  We have all read an article here and there on weather and fishing, and I'm not asking about weather conditions vs. good bite.

 

I'm just wondering if those silly graphs on weather.com that show active fishing periods throughout the day are at all accurate.  Or any other of those websites or apps that predict active fish vs. inactive.

[5 Dollar Fishing Game]

I have an app on my iPhone 5S called "fishing deluxe" It shows moon phases and barometric pressure graphs. The main idea is every day on the calendar is rated 1-5 stars with 5 being the best day.

Outcome:

I've been skunked on 5 star days and on a 1 star day I caught my biggest best ever. Go figure.

[Violinguy]

Well, today was supposed to be most active first thing in the AM, 3-4PM and then just after dark.  I got to the lake at 230 and caught one decent fish and lost a couple also.  Then from 3-4 caught nothing.  Hmmmm

[flyingmonkie]

There have been several studies done on the impact of lunar cycles, and there is data that suggests that more bigger fish are caught during certain moon phases.  The theory is that feeding may be triggered by certain moon events, just like it can be triggered by a wide variety of other natural events.  Does it impact fish?  Sure.  Does it's impact trump any other environmental factors?  Doubtful.

 

IMO: Lunar cycle is just ONE of the variables in our seemingly endless equation of fishing.  Keep on calculating!

[5 Dollar Fishing Game]

Best chance to catch bass is to go out and fish. :-)

[RoLo]

Kind Response:

My esteem for the Solunar Theory parallels that of a state lottery (benefiting from its intricate vagaries is highly elusive)

 

Harsh Response:

Man has proven himself unfit to manage his own affairs, like balancing the fiscal budget;

and predicting tomorrow's weather. Why would this same buffoon fancy the notion

that he's capable of timing natural events under the auspices of Mother Nature?

 

Roger

[WRB]

Doug Hannon the late bass fishing guru has thousands of followers you believe his fishing charts based on solunar activity. The charts have been and continue to be published in several fishing magazines including Bassmaster called Astro tables.

It's another factor to consider along with weather and the other animal activity you observe.

I respect Hannon memory and his bass fishing skills.

Tom

[Paul Roberts]

In my experience, immediate conditions affect fish most. Large scale catch-all's miss the important smaller scale stuff.

 

We all gravitate toward, look for, the easy and simple way out ... reminds me of the bubble headed girl selling some wonder health elixir at a local fair I met. She finished her perky spiel with a vacuous "It's simple! You know, nature's really simple when you get down to it", finishing with a cute, and emphatic, little shoulder twist. I had been politely half listening but I think my jaw dropped when she said that, and I could only respond, "No. No. It's not. It's very very very very ...complex."

 

Does this mean that all measures taken of natural phenomenon are useless? No. The devil is in the details and that's where the complexity begins to show. But some measures are more useful than others –notably the stuff you said you weren’t asking about: “conditions”. Understanding them -combining knowledge and personal experience- ARE the shortcuts. In no time in history are there more "shortcuts" available than now. They won't include running your finger down a magic table, or having your phone beep, and tell you it's time to cast.

 

Not meaning to sound short, but I guess I've jumped to the middle ground between Roger's kind and harsh responses.

[nascar2428]

Create a fishing log using the solunar tables as one of the parameters. See if your bites and catches correspond. Bottom line it's one of many tools available to anglers to possibly help improve catches. When I have the time to fish, I'm fishing, 

[Lund Explorer]

I'm going to give a thumbs up to Roger, Tom, and Paul.

 

I suggest that you go fishing, take whatever you want into calculating what it will take to catch a fish, and then do it. 

 

There is one absolute that applies to bass fishing.  Unless you see their tracks on the shoreline, the odds are that those fish are still in the same lake they were in the last time you went there.  With all of it's shortcomings, the human mind does have the ability to reason.  A bass?  Not so much.  They are creatures of habit based on their environment, and if you can locate them, it is possible to find something they might bite on.

 

Imagine how sad life would be if we all needed some silver bullet to tell us when to fish.  You work all week and on Saturday morning the Solunar Tables say fishing was great on Wednesday but stinks on Saturday.  Are you going to stay home and mow the lawn?  What if you get to the lake and your Color-C-Lector tells you that you have to throw a "Bozo the Clown" color, and you don't have any.  Do you give up and go shopping with the wife?  The same goes with your PH Meter, Surface Temp Gauge, or any other toy sold to bass fishermen to supposedly stack the odd in your favor. 

 

You go fishing when you can go fishing, and be happy with the fact that you'll never be there when all of these so-called stars are in perfect alignment.

[SirSnookalot]

Bear with this as I'll be getting to bass at the end.  Over the last 10 years I have fished just about 7 days a week year round, most people know it's saltwater for me.  The moon phase affects the tide, the tide affects the bait and that affects the game fish.  Each day later in the tide cycle the bite drops off until there is literally no bite.  The days when I'm catching inshore fish I'm catching bass in the afternoon, the days I don't catch inshore fish bass are much tougher to come by.  Whether my bass fishing is done at peak or non peak times I can't say.  Based on my 10 years of experience today should be pretty good, with the tide change just after sunrise, later today I expect to do quite well bass fishing.  Sounds simple but it isn't, what can't be factored in based on past experience is what the weather will be like today.  Wind direction and strength affect water clarity and current speed, that might put a damper on my hopes for the day.

 

Bottom line, just go fishing.

[5 Dollar Fishing Game]

I agree snook. The apps and such can help some, bit the fish aren't locked into those factors. Bottom line is true, just fish. :-)

[Violinguy]

Yeah, I'm gong to continue to fish when I feel like it.  Obviously, as the temperature continues to rise here in GA, the fish are tougher to get to, so first thing in the AM is going to work best.  I was just wondering how much stock to put in some of the different apps and tables you see here and there.  Maybe a little, but as you all pretty much said, actually fishing is the most important part.

[Raul]

Here´s not a prediction, it´s a fact: you are not going to catch anything if you are not fishing.

 

Here´s a prediction: regardless of the conditions if you are not there you fishing are not going to catch anything.

 

Another prediction: go fishing as much as you can, that´s the only way you are going to catch them.

[Paul Roberts]

No one's suggesting anyone not go fishing -except maybe the phone app.

[GeoffreyInLouisiana]

I have an app on my phone called Sportsman Tracker, yesterday was supposed to be a 4 star day but I only hooked one then it took me in a downed tree n had my line all wrapped around the tree. The thing that makes it really disappointing was it was a Strike King PPJ in Texas Craw. When I got it from Hattiesburg, MS the cashier was more worried bout playing with watch instead of making sure that he scanned my items. I didn't notice it until I got home and to put the stuff in my tackle box n realized that the receipt didn't add up to the price I had in my head. I tried to it again on Wal-Mart app but it says sold out n status unknown the stores. I couldn't the 3/8oz on Amazon smallest had was 1/2oz n it is $9.30. Hopefully I can get one soon. Even tho I got way off subject that sportsman tracker, it calculates the Barometric pressure, skies, fog, light rain, temp, season, time of day, moon phase. I've looked at it b4 I went out today and as I said  a 4 star day but I only got that one bite. Sometimes I think it's game of chance. They may help  some

[scaleface]

I never take those charts into consideration . Fishing shuts off and turns on in an instant . Usually its weather related or how high  the sun is . Weve all been on a hot bite then a wind shift shuts it down and vice versa . I go when I can and if the weather forecast is suitable to be out on the water .

[tander]

Go when you can, go early, stay late, catch fish.

[MFBAB]

On 5/16/2014 at 5:52 PM, Paul Roberts said:

“conditions”. Understanding them -combining knowledge and personal experience- ARE the shortcuts. In no time in history are there more "shortcuts" available than now.

^^This. 

Current Conditions.  Water Color, Light, Wind, Current, Type of Lake, Seasonal Patterns, Grass or no Grass?, Bottom Composition?, Bait?.....you can make this list as long as you want to, and it will seem complicated at first, but if you start looking at the daily conditions and keeping notes, it doesn't take too long before most of what's on this list (as applicable to your fishing situation) is just running in the background of your mind as you fish, on auto pilot. 

Even the studies that suggest that the Full and New moon produce most of the World Records or biggest fish (Hannon and others), they all seem to break down when you look at the data with even a tiny bit of scrutiny.

You see the words New and Full Moon, and something like 65% of the records are caught within 3 days of each.  You instantly think, "This is simple, 65% of the fish are caught on just those 2 days"...But if you think it through, they said 3 days before and after each, so now we're talking about 3+1+3 (Full), and 3+1+3 (New) = 14 days.  A lunar cycle is 29,5 days, so we're talking about basically half of the cycle (47%) produces 65% of the fish, which is really not that big of a deal, and it should also be noted that these studies always consider lots of other species besides bass, which to me weakens the case even further.  And then, Hannon was hawking a calendar too, so there's that.  I'd probably like it a little more if it weren't tied to a marketing scheme

In the end, you might be able to argue for a slight advantage to fishing the Full and New, but it's negligible at best and it will always be overpowered by current conditions anyway, so I go with that.  And for what it's worth, I do absolutely believe that the Solunar periods have an effect on the fish and the bait, it has been proven in labs that they act differently during the high and low tides, etc...

An exception to my argument?  The spawn. They all hit the bank on the full moons in the spring   

[scaleface]

19 minutes ago, MFBAB said:

 

You see the words New and Full Moon, and something like 65% of the records are caught within 3 days of each.  You instantly think, "This is simple, 65% of the fish are caught on just those 2 days"...But if you think it through, they said 3 days before and after each, so now we're talking about 3+1+3 (Full), and 3+1+3 (New) = 14 days.  A lunar cycle is 29,5 days, so we're talking about basically half of the cycle (47%) produces 65% of the fish, which is really not that big of a deal, and it should also be noted that these studies always consider lots of other species besides bass, which to me weakens the case even further.  And then, Hannon was hawking a calendar too, so there's that.  I'd probably like it a little more if it weren't tied to a marketing scheme

 

 Maybe more people are fishing those days too because of the charts .  

[MFBAB]

35 minutes ago, scaleface said:

 Maybe more people are fishing those days too because of the charts .  

I agree.  And also, you can manipulate statistics to paint almost any picture you want if you're good at it. 

Now, another one of these debates, the one about fishing midday goes against that theory (more fishermen) though.  I've seen a good deal of data and also a lot of anecdotal references indicating that a disproportionately high percentage of larger bass are caught in the midday slot.  There is no doubt that fewer fishermen are out at midday, but one good example is the BASS Lunker Club data set with several thousand entries of 10 lb LMB and 6+ Smallies, which indicates that the highest reported time slot for qualifying bass in their records is the 11 am hour!  The most productive Lunker months by far are also the spawning months, Feb-April, which are the ones that I believe are the most tied in with the Full moons influence as well. 

I dunno, paralysis by over-analysis starting to set in, I think I need to go fishing  

[WRB]

If you look at my Cosmic Clock and Bass Calendar the moon phase is visually illustrated along with the Suns influence. I did this clock back in 1974 based on my experiences over 40 years ago. What I learned since then doesn't change anything, however you can't apply everything all the time. Moon phases have more bass behavior influence during pre spawn through post spawn and the suns horizon influence is prominate during the summer seasonal period or about 1/3rd of the year. Overhead sun during the cooler water periods can have a positive influence.

We evolve with wisdom over time.

Tom

[Cgolf]

I do know the Musky guys really seem to believe in it for big muskies, at least a couple of articles a year in Musky hunter about it. As for that stuff and Bass, I haven't seen any difference in the bite during the peak bite times even when I spend a week on a lake, 12 hours a day. 

One thing I found that was interesting is that the peak times differ depending on the magazine you look at, so it isn't like there is one set theory on this. 

[MFBAB]

1 hour ago, cgolf said:

One thing I found that was interesting is that the peak times differ depending on the magazine you look at, so it isn't like there is one set theory on this. 

I think latitude dictates that.  In other words, sunrise time where I am and say an hour or 2 hours east will be different by a little.  This is important for hunters to know because the legal shooting light times will vary   The Solunar charts are based on the tide cycles (2 per day), and of course the lunar cycle which is 29.5 days. 

This cycle just repeats over and over, if that ever changes we'll have bigger problems than fishing

[Team9nine]

On ‎5‎/‎16‎/‎2014 at 1:28 PM, Violinguy said:

I'm just wondering if those silly graphs on weather.com that show active fishing periods throughout the day are at all accurate.  Or any other of those websites or apps that predict active fish vs. inactive.

Who dug up this old post???

All those charts, graphs, and apps remind me of the old saying, "Even a broken clock is right twice a day."

-T9