You instincts are mostly correct, but you can still get hit at the top of the water column in cold water. Fish are weird, dude.
Think of it this way: Under normal, non-spawn circumstances, they wanna be either where easy food is, where they've got easy access to a temperature they find more comfortable, right?
Now consider that most baitfish don't tolerate cold water well at all – we'll generally see shad die-offs when the water temp dips into the 30s.
These two points are part of the reason that jerkbaits work so well in the late fall/early winter. Bass are ambush predators, and they're hella lazy, so they're all about the possibility of snatching up a dying baitfish.
Just about all the lakes where I'm at in East Tennessee are TVA reservoirs, so there's miles of riprap banks and shallows that creep ever-closer to the main channel as TVA drops the water level for winter.
So at my home lake(s), what I'd do with a jerkbait like that is I'd find some shallow riprap, because that's where the warmest water's gonna be, which means that there's still some algae there, so that's where the shad's gonna be, which is pretty close to where the bass are gonna be.
And I'd do my level best to give that jerkbait an oscar-winning death scene.
Edit: If you really just hate how fast it's rising, you can tune it up with bigger hooks or adding weight some other way. But it's a free lure so you're ahead of the game right now anyway.