Root beer

Check this out... http://books.google.com/books?id=RaK7zan6IEUC&pg=PA187&lpg=PA187&dq=using+regression+formula+for+finance&source=bl&ots=izP13_9p2S&sig=8l8sdFc_WxaOEvY711VnkqbUsmg&hl=en&ei=H1AwSr-_Mo6Ntgfc68z-Cw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=7#PPA190,M1 Regressions are still being taught in today finance class. Just like every other formulas it has it time and place. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. The link talks mostly how they are used to test relationship. Last year, I bet you could have got a linear equation out of oil price...it would have worked (the predictions that is). It just slowly kept going up. Ah well. You can bring me other formulas they used to forecast the future with and it may not always work just like using regression. Future cannot be predicted 100% every single time. But my point is simply this: you can used regression to calculate future oil price, but if it becomes linear equation you better hope something crazy happen for the price of crude to fall.

I bought up investment banker because RW is an investment banker. Of course I know that IPO is where investment bankers are. That where they are root of all evil. They can overestimate the actual price.. Hey did you also know they also assist in merging? They can also be root of all evil in merging. My point? I hate investment bankers at time with their overestimation of the actual stock price and merging companies together. (doesn't that defeat the point of capitalism? It make it seems more like monopolistic competition?) "Yeah, lets weed out the small guys by merging them into fortune 500 companies and make killer money, then go play golf." I also bought investment bankers up because I have read on account, an analyst made predictions and got fired due to investment bankers putting pressure upon them because the analyst themselves put sell rating on company that the investment bankers represent. The guy that put sell rating on Donald Trump bonds got fired (it later defaulted) The guy that put sell rating on Enron, he also got fired. I wonder why.... Regression formulas use HISTORICAL data. It may be independent or dependent on the future data.(I believe independent, but you can still get good prediction out of it sometimes depending on situation) When it is calculated it is just a mere prediction. At any giving point along the way somewhere in middle there going to be a variable change that going to veer off. But me? I don't used what I'm preaching, I use financial ratios to calculate companies performance and buy when I think it cheap and sell when I feel like it. I'm just simply saying regression CAN give you pretty good idea what it going be like within future. You're going to be wrong sometimes, and sometimes you are going to be right. I just believe I'm be right more than wrong. That chart you post...plug this year cost of oil, into a regression formula, and pick out a month, then when the month rolls around we'll talk. Financial Ratios and Standard Deviations are my two favorite math formulas. The rest that I mentions are just for mere fun and knowledge. Just sort of give me more than one corner to look at. P.S. RW, don't take it personal, but I hate investment bankers at time. Why does Dean food needs 100 brands? why can they not compete with just one brand. But that an argument for another day.

If I cannot use wikipedia on academic paper, I will not let you use it on me. Sorry, Charlie. (I'm aware of the links at the bottom, but still, if I cannot use it on academic paper, I cannot let others use it on me) I'm just saying regression formulas and other formulas are all mere prediction. Every single analyst are all mere predictions. This just continues to prove my speculation theory. Analyst predict one thing using any formula he wish, the company's performance exceed his prediction, the price of the stock moves upward. I've seen this with my own eyes. Not in a book. I haven't gotten that far into academia, yet. You are an investment banker, you try to B.S. people in believing this company is next Wal-Mart and that the price is going to go up, therefore, you make all your money.(if you tried to tell me I'm wrong, I will give you history lesson of an investment banker taking a company public that had no revenue nor profit and this stock sold at 98.00 a share within few days.) I've read stories on account that fundamental analyst get themselves fired, because of conflict of interest between their prediction and the investment banker's prediction.

To add to my latter statement, why is it so common to hear news report that is similar to this "The financial statement of XYZ company as exceed analyst PREDICTION." or "The financial statement of XYZ company as fail to meet analyst predictions." Sometimes it will read "The analyst for JP Morgan was correct on his prediction of XYZ corporations financial statement." I'm just simply saying you can make a darn good near accurate statement using linear, quadratic, etc on price of oil. But there always the madness of man will cause that prediction to veer off a little. But these predictions are only useful to emotions of the "lazy" investors who believes the analyst and willing to pay brokerage fee to stockbrokers to execute a trade. After all this is lifeblood of a brokerage firm. Also, the predictions are sometimes right. Wonder why Hedge Fund managers make so much money? Are they right? or just plain lucky?

I didn't say the price was going to be exactly what the equation calculated. I just said it good tool to use to predict what future MIGHT be. I could calculate the price at 90.00 a barrel in July, but it could actually be 88 in July. I'm no mean a mathematicians, but these numbers have some strange relations. The slopes, rate of changes, etc. But again I could predict a 90.00 a barrel, and the price could be steam rolling towards 90.00 and all sudden, there is a surplus of inventory and a lagging demand that will send price back down to 60.00 a barrel. It better to use math than guess with emotion. That all. :-X

I take the above statement back, I prefer the price per barrel. Retail price has to much variable in it. Taxes, the amount of retail stores, etc. This model will also give pretty good prediction where it will be be at in given month. Analyst use similar tool, only they use more broader indicators and data.

Instead of making emotional prediction where the price is going to end up. You can take the months and the average retail price for each month. Say you want do January through May. Take the average price for each month, then create a scatter plot of the data's. Then draw a line through the scatter plot and determine whether the line would model a: Linear, Quadratic, Cubical, and err Quartic. (I think that all of 'em those are more simple ones you should used) And then create a formula that model the line and you can continue the scatter plot without actually waiting on the month to happen. You can calculate the price of gasoline in the future using this model assuming it stays constant. Of course, the bad part is the taxes of some area will change price and the model will not adjust to new variable change in the market like: hurricanes, surplus, shortages, etc.I'm wondering if I can get two different numbers if I used weekly and monthly numbers. The monthly numbers will have less data to work with, but weekly will show more data and price changes. This would be easier if you had a Ti-83 or Ti-84 calculator. Other wise you be busy all day. I'm taking 12 hours of classes this summer, but if anyone wants to give me monthly data of price changes from January-May (average monthly price for retail or by the barrel) I will give you a mathematical accurate price of oil in whatever month you wish it to be. Probably take me 3 minutes to do it depending on how many data you give me. That's enough procrastination, back to my biology homework.

For those you that had the procedures...when you engage in such "sexual six flag" does it now just have a flag come out with the word "bang" on it?

Amen to that my friend! And pigs will fly, right? Of course, your state is NOT alone. I live here in Taxsylvania, where we do everything possible to increase spending and taxes and ensure new industry does not move to our state. Pigs did fly. Remember the swine flu buzz?

[quote author=56555B554F494C3C0 link=1243814968/21#21 date=1243920566 Rootbeer, and I mean this with all due respect, when you have 20 or 30 years of business experience, and trading with your own money at stake

Another example how speculation and CONFIDENCE controls the market. If an analyst predict a company to err make I don't know lets say 500.00 in profit..and they report 400.00. That will likely causes the stock to go down because of lack of CONFIDENCE in the management operation. I have actually seen this happen during all the 1 quarter reporting. I have seen analyst predict one of my stock to make small profit and they end up making 2.54 a share, sending the price up. They totally beat analyst prediction, which gave people more confidence and willing to buy more share of this company. Which will cause me to make a profit because this is sending the stock price up.

Seller A offers to purchase Security 1 at X price. Buyer B agrees. The trade is completed. Why would seller A trade to buyer B? Why would Buyer B agree to make this trade? He obviously got to have a mindset that he can profit off this..He not going run the company because he bought a share of it. So what makes him think he can profit off this. Is he CONFIDENCE? or just pure stupid?

If you can figure this problem out without getting help or being a smart@$$, I will shut up. In the production of 2 types of toys, a factory uses 3 machines A, B and C. The time required to produce the first type of toy is 6 hours, 8 hours and 12 hours in machines A, B and C respectively. The time required to make the second type of toy is 8 hours, 4 hours and 4 hours in machines A, B and C respectively. The maximum available time (in hours) for the machines A, B, C are 380, 300 and 404 respectively. The profit on the first type of toy is 5 dollars while that on the second type of toy is 3 dollars. Find the number of toys of each type that should be produced to get maximum profit. P.S. I give you you a head start..here the function. 5x+3y. Pond Hopper, As I said, I'm a fundamental trader, I believe in long term, but many economist will agree that all crashes has occurred due to speculation. Example: There was a company during late 90s two Cornell students started out of their dorm, they had no revenue nor profit..for some odd reason the investment banker took them public and IPO sold at 9.00 a share, few days later (because it was an internet company) it was trading at 97.00 a share. Bear in mind this company had ZERO profits and revenue. That speculation! that is what controlling stock market right now. That what causes the internet crash. (this company later bankrupt and no longer active after the crash). You can create wealth with performance, but the price still going move due to speculation. It unavoidable. When stocks start going down, the company with better financial statement will survive longer than those that been going up due to speculation.

Anyone seen this movie? It is hilarious! "Let it be known, that if I slip and fall, it was an accident the room did not win." HAHAHAHAHAHAHA For some reason I've been recording lot of horror movies lately on tv. I've watch "uninvited" "Disturbia" "1408" in a 2 day span. Edit: Here's another favorite. Mike Enslin: Why don't you just kill me? Room 1408: Because all guests of this hotel enjoy free will, Mr. Enslin.

Last weekend my father broke my St. Croix mojo spinning rod. >. It was right when we got done fishing I went to get the truck to back trailer down, and when we got onto the parking lot, my dad went to climb out of the boat..and some how fell and snapped my rod tip into 2 pieces. > I bought it at Bass Pro shop, but cannot find the receipt and it is registered with St. Croix for warranty. I bought the rod in late March. What should I do to get it replaced? Try hassle with BPS or call up St. Croix? I do not know if their warranty will cover snap rod tips because my father landed on it.

I dont think you understand the stock market. Enlighten me. If you can find a way to explain how stock market works that has nothing to do with confident or speculation. I will send you a some fishing goodies. With that being said, bear in mind. There are more technical traders than fundamentalist traders. (I consider myself fundamentalist, I occasionally look at charts just to see how they trade in past, but I do not make a buy because of what the chart says) Also, bear in mind that every crash has happen (actually I'm unsure on 1987 lot of things factored into the '87 crash) due to speculations. If you do not believe me, I will go all the way back to 1400s and start with tulip-bulb crazes and end my presentation at internet craze. Stock market is all speculation and about measure of consumers confident. Now, as I said enlighten me. Tyrius-you are right. I just had that news source on my screen saying it already took place. Way it was written sounded like the replacement already took place. I don't need pay attention in this class. I got B average and I just stare at the desk. Long as I make a 75 or better on my final exam I can pass with a B. It just a math class that will enable me go to into calculus this fall. This semester going to suck. :-/

General Motor no longer on the Dow. This morning it was replaced by Cisco. Yeah, I got proof. All the dow stocks are up execpt err one I think..(I didn't check them all.) P.S. the latter statement you made, that same thing that I just said..it up because "Confident". They feel good about all the news source. So much for the June 8th statement, eh? I got go to class. Later.

The change isn't effective until June 8th. It doesn't matter. Long as that information is out there investor's confident goes up. Therefore sending the stocks up. It up 206 points today.

I think, after winning the world series they no longer want to kill each other. ;D

My statistic professor quoted some famous mathematicians "There are three kinds of lies: lies, d**n lies, and statistic." Detroit shrinking population with less samples to use for statistic can make the percentage of crimes look higher than it really is. I never believe statistic unless I did the calculation myself. Simply because you do not know what kind of populations and samples the people doing the survey used.

Las Vegas? Really? I figure their security force be better due to all casinos.. I was expecting Compton or Oakland, California to be on the top 5...wow.

General Motor and Citigroup left the Dow Jones Industry index and the Dow Jones currently up at 191 points. HAHA.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/31/news/companies/gm_bankruptcy_looms/?postversion=2009053119 On the plus side I won my bet back in November when I told a friend of mine that "if government loan GM same amount of cash they been burning for the last 4 month, and 4 month from now if GM comes out of bankruptcy talk and return to profitability, I will go to Detroit and eat yellow snow." I won my bet. So now everyone I told this too owes me a butt kiss. I knew GM will be bankrupt by 2009 depending on how much tax dollars poured into the company.

I have COD:WAW. funky keevin I do not have COD:4

Ethanol good or bad you be the judge. After reading this link, I was wondering about the effect it has on my outboard motor.... http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/may2009/bw20090514_058678.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5