I try a bunch of stuff to see what gets bit, and that's the one I choose.
Not really. But sort of.
I show up with educated guesses about the mood and location of fish, based on time of year, time of day & light conditions, current and recent weather, and other environmental information (water temperature, clarity, cover types, weedgrowth, forage species, competitor species).
I use these guesses to select a handful of presentations to start with and rig up a few rods to switch between. I usually want at least one topwater, one mid-depth, and one bottom presentation, as well as some lures I can work horizontally some lures I can work vertically. As long as I have those bases covered, I'm usually confident I can at least get a strike by something, and when I do, I make finer adjustments from there. If I go for awhile with nothing, then I try something new.
But the point is, other than initial selection of a few things to try, I don't really "choose" until I get more information from the fish, which I use as feedback to tell me what I should be doing more of, and what I should be doing less of.