Sam,
I always look forward to reading your posts. Thanks for the article.
Yes, but...
Let's look at a typical cold front. One passed by here last night in central Virginia. Looking at the local weather observations from the NWS over the past 24 hours (http://www.weather.g...story/KLYH.html), I see that the maximum barometric pressure was about 30.15" Hg yesterday (12/22) morning around 10am, falling slowly throughout the day. At the minimum (meteorologists call this "frontal passage", and generally coinsides with lowest cloud heights and most rain; also, a change in wind direction), the pressure was 29.8 in the wee hours of the 23rd. The latest pressure (at 9am on the 23rd) is back to about 30.10. I expect it will continue to climb slowly for most of the day before leveling off this evening.
Now, I didn't go fishing yesterday, and haven't yet been today, so I don't know for sure what the fish are doing. But let's assume they are currently in their typical post-frontal funk, even if only mildly. We are talking about a pressure change (max to min) of 30.15/29.8, or about a 1.2% change in atmospheric pressure. While true that this air pressure does push on the water surface, let's not forget the substantial weight of water itself.
Water weighs about 64 lbs/ cubic foot, so the water pressure (ignoring the air pressure on the top of the water) at 1 foot depth is about 0.4psi (64 lbs/ft3 / 12^2). "Normal" air pressure at sea level is 14.7psi. If this changes by even a radical 5%, or 0.7psi during a weather change, a fish can totally neutralize the effect of the pressure change by merely changing his height in the water column by less than 2 feet of depth (0.7psi air pressure change / 0.4psi per foot of water depth). Clearly, most bass have access to greater than a 2 foot column of water with which to neutralize their swim bladders and other organs.
So I don't buy the barometric pressure explanation. And, the pressure changes are identical for moving water as they are for still water, because the same air is pressing on the surface of both.
On the other hand, I don't have a better explanation, as I think "loosing their teeth", "rapid temperature drop" and "too much light" aren't good explanations either. So this discussion is free to continue