Nice topic and a much friendlier and civil discussion than one I started months ago and was reamed by a few (minus mods doing their job and even threatened by one). I congratulate everyone!!!
Reflecting on what's been stated, some things have either been left out or touched on briefly without emphasis. Fishing, from basic to advanced levels, must include bass factors and human factors that can not be ignored and the most important word of all, variables, pretty much includes them.
Science and Bassmaster magazine has touched on bass factors such as habitat types, fish behavior, diet, anatomy, etc. and from the latter source, at times mixes in misinformation when selling lures and suggests vague ideas, suggestions and reasons as it concerns outings, neither of which are scientific in the least! (It's kind of like watching Bill Dance on TV! lol) But the human variable can never be ignored as the fly in the ointment of fact, especially as it concerns scientific fact vs. opinion based on incomplete facts, wishful thinking, generalizations and superstition.
Bass anglers first off are affected by prejudice, the best anglers less so. Have you ever fished a lure you don't have confidence in (even though a B.A.S.S.pro used it to win megabucks), never caught fish on it consistently and then stored it away indefinitely for posterity? Lures that produce less than others may have real value, but today's goal of many for instant gratification coupled with multiple disappointments, skew our evaluation of many lures and presentations that may produce great catches. Not knowing what to use, when or where, affects the catches of great anglers as well as lesser anglers. Knowing bass behavior may help, but it will never be foolproof because of human fallibility starting with prejudice and ignorance induced by inexperience and an inflexible mindset.
We say bass are creatures of habit but what about humans? How many of you fall into the same bad habits of using only one or a few lures and presentations in fewer cover/ structure types and depths than you should, especially on tough days after getting few strikes hour after hour? Somewhere in a body of water, fish are prone to being caught and other than where and how you're fishing for them, fish can't be blamed for one's poor choices based on bad habits or execution.
Bass may be creatures of habit, but their habits are most times dictated by a biological response to many variables, particularly environmental. Keith Jones offered some interesting factoids, but environmental factors include too many things fish are sensitive to that bass anglers can never completely factor in. Many of you know many of them that can have a dramatic effect: water temperature and levels - rising or falling, light based on sun angle/ water clarity, depth, pH, wind - strength, speed, direction, water level - drought, flood stage, current, and on and on. Time of year/ seasonal variables make all the difference in the world! Prey location and behavior, general fish and other wild life metabolism and activity, pre and post spawn behavior, general boating/ fishing activity, etc, must be factored in. How has science been able to have a controlled experiment to include all of those bass behavior modifiers to be able to predict what bass are up to at any one moment or time period?!!
Lure burn out has been mentioned, but bass memory has been studied and found to be limited in capacity and in the length of time memories are stored. Bass may remember some lures after being caught multiple times and shy away from striking them, but for how long - one year, a few years or for as long as it lives? Does the bass share that information with other bass or do all other bass in a water learn from it's demise, spreading the word that, that lure is deadly / avoid it any like it at all costs!!!? Or does human prejudice, including that spread by word of mouth, kill the lure's popularity for a body of water under the category of lure burn out? What about other waters? If the lure does poorly somewhere else, was it because fish were exposed to it too often, a flying fish spread the word between waters or the lure, like most others, has a time and place?
Granted, some lures do great the first year, but the reasons why may have nothing to do with their overwhelming fish appeal or novelty, but more to do with fishing variables that put anglers more often in the right place, using one of many lures and presentations to clobber bass day after day in a particular year. To ignore all of the variables that make lures successful prompts one to believe in fairy tales as it concerns certain lures and one's abilities. Variables account for a lure's success, many of which an angler will never know the combination of.
So as it concerns scientific predictions of bass behavior, degrees of intelligence and whether of not a group of bass is prone to being caught, I say, the challenge of fishing is not only to catch fish, but to be amazed when we catch them at all! - science be damned (along with fishing shows)!
Frank