Muddy-
Here are some thoughts from some of the world's leading economic experts. I'm not saying you're wrong, and I'm not saying that a recession is not possible, but as someone who works in financial services industry, I think we are "crying wolf" just a little bit to early on this one. We are going through some economic downturns, but we're not in a recession just yet. When you go through a period of all time high economic growths, new home sells, etc, eventually you only have one direction you can go.
"Wachovia's chief economist John Silvia says many of the indicators out just today point to a contrary conclusion:
JOHN SILVIA:"Personal income is growing around 7 percent. Consumer spending up around 5 percent. You're looking at factory orders, shipments, all growing at 8 to 10 percent growth. I mean, that's not the scenario where you have recession."
Silvia says he's not ruling out a recession, but wouldn't put the odds at any more than 1-in-20 in the coming six months."
"Greenspan, who has become a Federal Reserve chairman emeritus of sorts, might be more objective now that he is out of his federal role. He told the Wall Street Journal yesterday that he thought the probability of a recession is "slightly more than a third."
"You're right; we're not in an official recession, which occurs when GPD growth is negative for two or more quarters in a row.
In a period of slowing economic growth, dynamics may occur to make us feel like we're in a recession business growth is sluggish, businesses stop expanding, unemployment goes up and employment goes down, and housing prices decline. Does this sound familiar? Depending on where you live in the county, you may be experiencing all or many of these things, but it doesn't mean we've entered a recession.
Recessions don't just happen overnight; generally, a recession is preceded by several quarters of slowing growth."