I would put experience against luck any day. Experience, in my view, will win. Are there exceptions? Sure. But the odds are, and have been, in the favor of experience.
And there are two ways of looking at this as well. Tournament fishing is one thing. Big bass fishing is another. How often have you heard this; "I'll go for my quick limit at my first spot then look for big fish." I've done that so many times in the past, I couldn't count them all. That paid off sometimes after drastic pattern changes from "keepers" to big fish patterns, and ended in successful wins. Other times it didn't pay off. On the other hand, years later, I worked on big fish patterns to start with. No fishing for quick limits. I started with places where bigger fish live. I finished with places where the bigger fish were. My overall tournament wins increased.
You can spend 4 hours catching a limit of pound and a half keepers or you can spend those same four hours catching two 5 pounders. So, in the case of tournaments, which would you rather weigh in?
But fishing for big fish, to me, is different. This often means slowing down. It sometimes means waiting for the fish to move, or trigger, in a particular depth, point, or other area. Especially in the summer pattern months. You often have to do things different depending on the lake type, location, and fishing pressure. We all know we fish OVER and through more fish than we catch . . .
Still, those who catch big fish consistently do so for other reasons. Weren't they lucky they took the time to change their line last night? Weren't they lucky to check the bottom underneath the boat for fiberglass or aluminum scratches that might cut a line on a big fish? Weren't they lucky to have forced themselves to read hours and hours about liminology, so they can understand any lake type that they fish, anywhere, and how those fish relate to those systems.
Personally, I don't believe in luck fishing (on a consistent basis). To a lesser degree SIZE might be influenced, based on the lake type, forage, health, growing season (north or south), etc. But luck? Like the guy or gal who catches a big bass on the first trip out? Well, that's like winning the lottery. It happens (usually to someone else!), but not nearly as often as a good, knowledgeable fisherman that has upped his odds, and who can put consistent big fish in the boat.
Just my humble opinion.