It's trial and error, as you can't predict in advance what will work on any given day. But there are some general guidelines which you can start with. For example, slow-moving baits in cold water, topwaters under low light in warmer water. It goes without saying that the lure must be suitable for the conditions, e.g., no crankbaits in heavy weeds, to state the obvious. Confidence and personal preference enter into the equation too. Take a situation where you're fishing over submerged weeds that come to within two feet of the surface. That situation can be fished effectively with topwaters, spinnerbaits, a variety of soft plastics, shallow crankbaits, inline spinners, and perhaps others. You need to put in your time, experiment, figure out what works, what lures you have confidence in, what ones you enjoy using, and the like. After awhile, you'll find out the decision-making process might clear up a little. And don't forget that if you're in an area holding fish that are willing to hit a lure, much of the time there are multiple lures that they will hit. So you don't have to choose only one thing that will work, which is pretty fortunate, since many of us wouldn't catch anything if the decisions had to be precise all the time.