I think the Cards have a legitimate shot at the postseason this year. I'm not saying the NL Central is theirs to lose, but they could still win it and even if they don't there's the expanded postseason with two wild card slots open.
Berkman and Beltran are both injury risks, but Berkman is somewhat less of one now that he'll be starting at 1B. The Cards have quite a few young guys that they could call up should the need arise, and Allen Craig will be available to replace either Berkman or Beltran if necessary. Craig hasn't got Berkman's bat, but between Craig and Beltran there really isn't much to choose from. Actually I'd take Craig over Beltran if I could only have one, as Craig is still getting better while Beltran is on the decline.
If Berkman stays healthy, I think he's got every chance of hitting like he did last year. He was injured in 2010, and if you look at his career stats 2011 was merely a return to his normal production.
As for Holliday being a big risk to get injured, I just don't see that. 2011 was an abnormal season in that he appeared in the fewest games he's played since 2005, which was his second year. Even with his injuries last year, he still hit .296 with 22 homers and 75 RBI, and that's a pretty darn good record for only playing 124 games. Matt Holliday is really not a liability in terms of durability, especially since it's not likely that any more moths will fly into his ears.
I think the Yankees have a good shot at taking the AL east again. The Tigers are pretty much the only major league team in the AL central, and in the AL West the Rangers and Angels will likely go down to the wire. I pick the Rangers to win the division, but the Angels are not going to be easy to take out. The runner-up in the West will have to compete with the Red Sox and the Rays for one of the two wild cards.
BTW, Miguel Cabrera at 3B isn't going to be pretty. He's not as agile as he needs to be to play third base, and his bad defense will have a negative effect on his overall value. The Tigers might just as well have moved Prince Fielder to 3B for all the good he'd do defensively.
In the NL: I'll say the Phillies have at least one more division title in them. The Cardinals can win the Central if they stay healthy, and I pick the Diamondbacks to win the NL West . The wild cards should be contested between the Reds, Braves, Marlins, and Giants, and while I think the Reds and Marlins are the most likely wild cards, the Braves and Giants are very serious threats as well.
It'll be interesting to see how the new wild card format works out. Supposedly it will make every season a fight to the finish between the two wild cards in each league, but on the downside it also means that potentially the fifth-best team in one of the leagues could win the World Series.