I would speculate that reason #1 probably is one of the larger contributors to what you're experiencing. Add in things like seasonal variability, temporary water condition changes, etc., and that could account for some of it. How many events this is based on could also play a large part. If this is just something like 6-8 events a year, I'd expect to see a lot more randomness or variability to the data. I kept a detailed record of catches on what was my home lake at the time over a period of 6 years and more than 100 events. I only included data from events that I cashed in, because I wanted to see just the most financially productive baits/patterns to focus on, as just numbers or random catches that didn't produce a check didn't really mean anything to me in the big scheme of things. I cashed in 56 of those events, and caught 377 keepers on those tourney days. When I graphed the data (below), what became apparent was that a jig accounted for an overwhelming majority of my fish over that period of time, year after year and season after season. Then you had just a handful of other baits that you could consider fairly consistent producers to compliment it.
Was the lake just a good jig lake? Was it just a confidence bait I fished more than others? Was it a bait that a lot of other guys weren't fishing or the fish weren't seeing? Did I have a "magic" color combination? Or was I just a better decision maker on the water - have a better rotation more times than most? Hard to say, but the bass apparently never really tired from seeing these presentations over an extended period of time for whatever reason, despite like most lakes, all the best areas or "spots" were all well known to the locals competing, and everyone beating up the same stuff week after week, showing the fish anything and everything in the way of baits and techniques (for the time).