Great conversation; It’s such a pleasure. I "liked" pretty much everything. Started to multi-quote and gave it up there are so many great comments. I agree with all of it, which tells me we're all pretty much on the same page, give or take. If I could make a summary comment it would be in the recognition of the myriad variables we all know -or eventually discover- summed up in A-Jay's "chasing unicorns".
And, Brian, I've also gone GoPro. Yeah, and I'm hoping to explain a few things along the way. As I write (about... nature stuff) I am constantly aware of the variables and how difficult it is to make "statements". But I've grown used to it, having had enough experiences in the sciences to fathom the fact that such inquiries are surrounded by error bars, and that knowledge (despite touted as the key to successful fishing) is mostly incomplete.
I sum up my fishing this way: Although fishing may require a lot of knowledge, planning, observation, and execution, on the water we're flying by the seat of our pants. And I joke that I start re-writing history as soon as I leave the water. All I can hope for is that I've done enough homework on the variables that I can at least consider them in my final narrative -what my 40years of journaling has been all about.
Along the lines of John's post above, I recently shot a video journal called Bluebird Blue, in which I fish a small "Swimming Pool" of a pond under post-frontal blue. There were other anglers on that pond while I was there, and they all blanked. The most outwardly capable of them (by speak, tackle quality, and enthusiasm) told me he'd been crushing them over the last week with "horizontal baits", it being "fall". I smiled and thought to myself, "Oooh boy, today you are headed for a "fall" alright." An hour or so later he was packing out, fishless, and said he was going to other ponds "to find some biters".
I shot my video with the pond to myself that included underwater video of bass happily hunting in 2fow under those bluebird skies and clear water. I caught bass (by finesse) and finished with my "Blue-pers" for the day -me spooking bass after bass, showing why those fish were so darn hard to catch. It wasn't because those bass had lock-jaw, went deep, hid in inside turns, crawled into crevices, etc.... . Instead, it was MOST simply because they were so ready to turn inside out at anything out of place. I emphasize "MOST" because it's not the whole story, of course, as there were other variables at play. But the bass's shift from aggressive hunting to vigilance was the first, and largest, hurdle.
Knowing the variables well enough to consider which of them are likely (error bars again) most significant in the moment is how I play the game; How I think we all play the game, as best we can. After all we're all merely mortal, unlike the likes of Buck Perry. Or so it would seem.